Posted on 10/13/2008 6:01:00 PM PDT by BCrago66
In contrast to other polls, which show Obama leading McCain by 4 points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby) to 11 (Newsweek), the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll debuts today with Obama up just 2 points with 13% (including 25% of independents) undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-12 among 825 likely voters.
Q: If the 2008 election for U.S. president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
With a more realistic weighting, would you expect the lead to be something closer to 5% - 6%? Is so, this would basically match other polls out there right now.
I give much more credence to polling organizations that publish their internals. I don't like Rasmussen or Zogby for that reason alone.
2006 was a banner year for democrats. The party ID was +3 for Dems. Do you prefer pulling numbers out of thin air? Or affirmative action for Barack Obama in the polls?
Yup. ..and justice for all, born and unborn. KofC thing. :-}
I don’t think too many expect D & R turnout to be even this year. It won’t be a 6% difference but it could easily be 2% - 3%.
If I run a kennel, and I tell you that 60 percent of the dogs there like pork, while 70 percent of the cats there prefer chicken, you still don't know what the percentages are of dogs v. cats staying at the kennel. So I still don't have the internals of the IBD poll; thus I don't know if they're over or under-sampling Democrats.
+
IBD is, evidently, using dems +3 based on the party numbers.
Independents are +2. Obama is + 2. McCain two points does better with republicans than Barack does with democrats and gets 2 points more democrats than Obama does from republicans. I think we can infer from that that IBD is using a Dem +2 or 3 weighting.
I’m going to re-visit this thread, and what you just said, tomorrow when I don’t have a headache and my noggin is working. I don’t doubt the the sample can be figured out inferentially as you say, but I can’t do no more inferrin’ tonight.
Night all.
OK, get well!
Based on my memory, IBD/CSM/TIPP always uses a hard party weight. I always seem to remember that it was 39D, 35R, 26I, but I could be wrong there. No way that it’s less than D+2, however.
They do not push leaners until the end of the election, or when the leaners start pushing themselves.
It is a good poll with a good record and an excellent methodology, imho.
That banner year was related to the Mark Foley October surprise that the DNC media kept in the headlines for 4 weeks !
I have read that the early voting is way down this year compared to 2004.
The Iraqi war issue is gone and the 2000 stolen election mantra is gone too.
Based on what ?
Right. Only 49% of the electorate showed for the 1996 election, and the lowest turnout in at least 80 years.
They do it for a good reason .
There raw data does not flow with there results due to there Tracking Formula gaming !
So apparently Sara has the Christian vote and Zero has the atheist, Jewish, Buddhist, Hindu and Muslim vote.
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