Newsweek Poll: Obama 52 McCain 41 (Dem +13)

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163337 ^

[Longstreet63]

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS Total Obama/Biden Total McCain/Palin Other candidate Undecided CURRENT TOTAL 52 41 1 6 =100

[Signalman]

This is good. The idiot Obama voters, the druggies, the welfare parasites, the aging hippies with the pony tails still going to college, they’ll stay home, light up a joint, and say to themselves, why bother going to vote, Obama has it all wrapped up.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

The party ID exit polls in 2004 (according to CNN) were 37% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 26% Independent.

This is a fairly reasonable assumption. Since 2004, the Democrats took control of Congress and President Bushes popularity has suffered, so a shift in party identification is reasonable.

I believe, based upon my understanding of voter behavior (in other words “nothing” on the internet as you don’t know me) and the political situation, that we are sitting on a 38% Democrat, 36% Republican, 26% Independent electorate.

So here is how I am reading national polls: Subtract the percent of Democrats polled from the percent of Republicans polled. Subtract 2. That is the number to subtract from the national poll number.

So, according to the RCP polls out today (for those that provide internals on party affiliation and weighting)

Newsweek: Obama +11% ASB modified: Tie
FoxNews: Obama +7% ASB modified: Tie
Rassmussen: Obama +5% ASB modified: Obama +1%
Hotline: Obama +7% ASB modified: Obama +4%

Yeah, McCain is down a few points, but the weighting really skews it in Obamas favor.

[Cedric]

That’s why I think the drive-bys have got to put Obama on a downward glide path soon.

[word_warrior_bob]

McCain leading amongst whites by only +1 and losing among men by 14?? Who did they interview, the white metrosexual male population of Key West and Berkeley?

_____________________

Democrats NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, win the male vote and this poll has Obama up by 14??????

Soon they’re going to need Witch Doctors to conduct these polls to show Obama ahead.

[I_hate_politicians]

The polls are designed to discourage people from voting. At least, those who would likely vote for McCain.

[goldstategop]

Yep! Rush said today if Obama is playing it "safe" that means he's bland, dull and boring. No wonder the MSM/Drivebys aren't showing his campaign rallies. There's no excitement there. It has all the pep of a funeral home gathering.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Cedric]

But, thanks to Palin, we’ve got “broken glass” Republicans again.

[swordfishtrombone]

I love the kool-aid drinkers chanting “O-BA-MA!” with all their white-guilt-powered fury

At McCain rallies, the chant is “U-S-A” ...

Pretty sure that summarizes the entire election

[word_warrior_bob]

Obama is increasingly only appealing to the Kool-Aid crowd, not enough to get him elected.

My landslide prediction stands and hasn’t changed one iota from the time Sarah was named VP candidate.

[LS]

Please, let them keep running this crap. It's clear what they are doing: the Messiah's people have already seen that they can't win OH, that they are behind in FL, that while they are close in CO and VA, it is entirely likely that the Bradley effect will swamp them in both places.

These polls are no longer about trying to depress the GOP vote: they are about setting the stage for the rioting that will occur after the election is "stolen."

[1-Eagle]

Liberal rags have always been slanted and are never to be trusted.

[LS]

And most undecideds don't decide based on polls. They really don't. Ads may make a difference, but usually it's "impresions" of what the candidate can or will do. Every election since 1992, the polls have had the Republican losing. Yes, Bush and Dole lost---but by far, far less than what the polls predicted. Bush won and won, again despite being predicted as a Gore and Kerry win. So it's pretty obvious that because the pollsters seem to be of the same intelligentsia class that provides the "news," they begin with certain assumptions of what the electorate should "look like." Except it doesn't.

One study of the polls in 1996 found that every one of them was wrong, but all in the same direction and that for such a thing to happen, the odds were 290,000 to one.

[CaspersGh0sts]

but I hope some high up Republican calls them on it after a R vistory Nov. 4th and refuses to give any media interviews/info whatsoever to media orginiazations that are nothing but propogandists...

I wish Bush had done this years ago. Why is it that the New York Times gets special access when other papers don't? I grant you their circulation, but it's a self-perpetuating cycle. If these papers behave malignantly, cancel them.

Revoke all the press passes from the NYT, for instance, and give them to a paper in Columbus or Knoxville or Charleston.

[bcatwilly]

But, thanks to Palin, we’ve got “broken glass” Republicans again.

Agree, and frankly I think that many of us are starting to just not care what those stupid polls say when you see reality on the ground yourself. I have multiple instances of people I know personally that are Democrats and will never vote for Obama, and I believe that others on here have said the same. Many of the PUMAs still seem plenty motivated to vote against him too.

YET we are to believe a poll that has Obama getting 91% of Democrats, which is better than the 89% McCain gets, AND this poll has Obama up by 14 points among men, yet only 9 among women. This is truly laughable trash that makes me more confident, not less.

I really believe that with Sarah, all of the quite frankly scary stories about Obama on the web and such and being called racist on top of that, our base will not have a problem getting out. They are playing a dangerous game with their own voters in acting like he is ahead by so much.

[LS]

See, that kind of junk is when you know that McCain has a lead. For them to think that Obama is leading by one among whites and losing the male vote by 14 would land most people in a psychiatric ward.

[goldstategop]

Agreed. They know their guy can't win so they're setting up the excuse: Americans are just rednecked racists who'll never elect a black man President!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[johncocktoasten]

Obama will not receive more than 46% of the popular vote

[lewislynn]

I looked for parking spots. There were tons of empty parking spaces during the Obama speech within 2 city blocks of where he was speaking

Well duh. Everyone knows Democrats all only use public transportation.

Thanks for the encouraging report.

[BookmanTheJanitor]

why would Newsweek, a fine upstanding magazine, need to over sample Democrats so much in their poll? ...oh wait, never mind.

[Dr. Free Market]

Here's all you need to know:

Since 1988, the largest party ID differential for any election - that includes 2 Clinton wins, the Rep takeover in '94, the Dem takeover in '06 - has been Dem +4 in '06. Every election Dems think THIS will be the year that all those winos, homeless, and college students are going to vote, and it hasn't happened yet. Some day it may, but I have no reason to believe that this will be the year. Remember, all those newly registered voters were unregistered for a reason - THEY DON'T VOTE!

If turnouts are comparable to '04, and McCain gets > Bush's percentage of Indies (48%) - which has been his plan all along - then regardless of the historic significance, this should be a Dem heartbreaker again - only funnier! Actually, what Obama has to realistically hope for is that he is seen as inevitable; hence, the phony poll demographics. This sways the herd mentality of the "Independents" (Ironic isn't it?) toward the preordained candidate.

Remember, many Independents/Moderates just want to say that they voted for the winner as it confirms their disengaged selfabsorption.