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Check this out...I compare the “Whites by 1 and losing men by 14” to Dole’s performance.

Dole lost by almost 9 points in the PV and 220(!) in the EV.

Here’s his performance among whites:

Income over $75,000: Won by 15 points
Income under $75,000: Lost by 1 point
Non-college educated: Lost by 1 point
College educated: (source doesn’t say, but describes Bush’s 9 point win as “somewhat larger” than Dole’s win. Call it 5 or more.)

Now, let’s take a look at white men. Now, of course, we know that any survey of men is going to include a significant percentage of non-whites, but I still think if we look at white men it will shed light on the numbers for men, because whites are the majority and few black and Hispanic men will vote for the GOP candidate. Ergo, a significant loss or win among white males almost certainly means a significant win or loss among men, period.

White male without a 4 year degree: Won by 7 points
White male with 4 year degree or higher: Won by 17
White men under $75,000: Won by 8
White men over $75,000: Won by 20

In other words, this guy lost his butt and won white males of every sort by a significant margin.
Source: http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=lessons_for_next_time

So, let’s forget entirely about the Bradley Effect and just consider these numbers for one of the worst candidates (a fine man, but an awful campaign and choice for nominee) in a long time for the GOP. I don’t have enough stats math to make a definite conclusion about the amount of movement (or even know if it’s possible to do so) but it seems to me that if this poll were true we’d be looking at a change in white male voting patterns of somewhere north of 15%.

I’m not sure I’d buy that if there was video of McCain marrying a goat. I’m sure not buying it in the current situation.

Oh,and one last thing: The last poll NYT/CBS released before the 1996 election had Dole down by 16%.
Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/1996/11/05/camp.t_1.php