Get inside the internals: Obama's trailing Kerry by 15% among Jews; trailing Kerry among Catholics; only getting about 83% of the Dem vote (McCain getting 90% of the GOP vote); he's trailing Kerry in suburban voters; in a key county like Montgomery in OH, he's running 2% behind where Kerry was; he's behind in white males, barely up in females, even in independents, and shocker of all, Obama has yet to MATCH Kerry in blacks!
That does not equal victory, especially when you factor in the electoral college. I give Obama almost no shot here in OH due to southeastern OH. As of two weeks ago, the Dem operatives there said they still couldn't convince people he wasn't a Muslim!
I see McCain playing “defense” in North Carolina (which will NOT go for Obama), Virginia, and even Indiana. I am taking into account the Bradley effect and see Barry O winning this in a squeaker. Too many voters are angry about the meltdown and don’t care about the social stuff this time around. They don’t know Obama, but will let the chips fall where they may as they blame the GOP for the current morass.