Gallup Daily: Obama Leads 50% to 42%

Gallup ^ | 10/6/2008 | Gallup

[tatown]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters across the country by a 50% to 42% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 3-5, the tenth straight day in which Obama has held a statistically significant lead.

[kesg]

I just wish people here realized that RAS , Gallup, and Battleground all screwed up in their final 2000 Tracking polls.

Rasmussen and Battleground did. I remember Gallup pretty much nailing it (and detecting the Gore surge in the final weekend before other pollsters did). Gallup also pretty much nailed the 2004 election as well.

[kesg]

Oops, I may have misspoke about the Gallup results in 2000. Gallup did get 2004 right.

[Wilder Effect]

No they had Bush +4, the chart was posted here last week. They saw a trend, but still had Bush up.

Gallup is very famous for 1976 when they had it Ford 49 to 48 over Carter.

Gallup also took heat for 1948 when they proclaimed a Dewey landslide.

[ubaldus]

I guess we’ll see after the election. My claim - Obama will outpeform his final RCP average slightly. This will be simple to check.

You claim he will underperform it... by how much?

[Wilder Effect]

2004 was easy for credible pollsters, a War Time Incumbent always wins.

2000 was the tough one, and Gallup blew it.

[kesg]

If the GOP candidate cannot get to 35% with Latinos - that spells big trouble. Especially since their share of vote will rise rapidly in the next 20 years, once 1st generation immigrants get citizenship, and their kids reach voting age.

I couldn't agree more. This is a huge problem. McCain, and Republicans generally, should be doing much better with Hispanics (who should be natural Republican voters, as many of them are in Texas and Florida -- they tend to be Catholic, pro-life, pro-family, pro-military, and pro-USA).

[floridagopvoter]

“huessein IS IN NEBRASKA LOOKING FOR VOTES ...DOES THAT SOUND LIKE A CANDIDATE WAY AHEAD IN THE POLLS?..NO!”

Yes, it does. Nebraska should see not a single visit from anyone, Obama, Palin, nobody. It is actually not good news for us that Obama has opened an office in Nebraska and Palin is there today.

[Wilder Effect]

by 5% at least, maybe 8% high end.

Take DEM oversample of 8% to 10% even with credible pollsters, and combine it with the Bradley Effect and you could have a major upset.

But all of this is mute, there are 4 weeks to go , two debates, and a video of Racist Michelle at Farrakhan’s church.

[Wilder Effect]

Don’t be duped. Buffet lives in Omaha.

This a psych job, don’t be fooled.

[kesg]

I know...I wrote the original e-mail before seeing your numbers for 2000. My apologies.

[refermech]

Too bad a market plunge plays right into obamas hands. It’s hard for me to imagine a McCain victory with a bad economy. Still I’m hopeful.

[ubaldus]

Tom “Miami is a third world city” Tancredo and other nativists score points for themselves, and hurt GOP quite badly in a crucial demographics along the way.

Remarks and attitudes like this cost votes. Rove realized it, that's why he tried to push this “immigration reform”.

Yes, it was ugly, but whatever Obama and Dem congress are going to cook up in 2009-2010 is likely to be even uglier.

If Dems lock up 70-75% of Latino vote for the foreseeable, beating them in the national election will require getting to 60-62% of white vote. Possible, but these are Reagan-like numbers, very hard to reach.

[floridagopvoter]

The only way they screwed up was by predicting that Bush would beat Gore by a lot more than he finally did. Gore did better than expected. That does not really compute with the held opinion that these polls are Democratic-friendly, one could argue that in 2000 these same polls were too Bush and GOP friendly.

[paul544]

You need an energetic party leadership to reach out to new voters. We should have voter drives, we should making the case to Latinos that we share many of the same views. Not pander, just present the facts.

[what's up]

Too bad a market plunge plays right into obamas hands

We may see people start turning to McCain simply out of a desire for an older, more stable person.

That's what this last month is for...the October Surprise of pointing out again and again the vapor that is Obama.

[comebacknewt]

The stock market isn’t helping out. In fact it is a Godsend to the Obama forces

The bad economic news, and more specifically McCain's lackluster response to it, is leading people to clamor even more strongly for "change".

We all know the change Obama will bring will make a terrible situation much, much worse, but the American people are desperate and McCain has not yet given them a reason to believe he can fix the problems.

He MAY still be able to get there, but it sure looks doubtful and he is rapidly running out of time.

[kesg]

Again, I agree completely with everything you said. I was making many of the same points here two-three years ago at an earlier stage of this coming trainwreck between the GOP and Hispanic voters. There were two ways we could go: the California direction or the Texas/Florida direction. Either-or. Now we have an EV map where once solidly Republican California is now safe Democratic, and once reliably Republican Nevada and Colorado are now not so reliable. Texas is still solid, but — as I said — we did it the right way here.

[STE=Q]

TO ALL:

WARNING! - DANGER!

DO NOT DRINK THE MSM KOOL-AID!

The msm are ‘in the tank’ for Obama.

And the MSN elite have not forgotten the swipe by Palin at her acceptance speech on September 3rd, 2008:

“Here’s a little news flash for all those reporters and commentators: I’m not going to Washington to seek their good opinion. I’m going to Washington to serve the people of this country”

STE=Q