Posted on 10/06/2008 6:33:32 AM PDT by CatOwner
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess ...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
PA isn’t going to have a flood of new voters that are going to swing the election. Look this is a stable state, especially outside of philly. We don’t have huge influxes of populations. If you find someone who isn’t registered, its usually either a kid, or someone who’s not going to show up on election day anyway.
Relax folks, work hard.. but relax, the idea the sky is falling is comical.
While McCain is getting ripped to shreds, he has been running commercials about how this is a time to come together. What an idiot.A double-plus idiot. Not to mention the geniuses who are on his campaign staff.
IA is blue this time for 1 reason and 1 reason only and it has nothing to do with FAUXBAMA.
IA is all about CORN.. and guess what, McCain has a long history of opposing ethanol and farm subsidies... and that at the end of the day is why IA will likely wind up D.. has nothing to do with IA supporting Fauxbama, as just wanting to keep those checks rolling to themselves.
I personally think that Rasmussen is slightly oversampling Democrats at this point, but not by as much as many here seem to believe. I supposed he bases it partly on the 2006 midterms being such a lopsided affair in their favor and the fact that voter registration records are showing Democrats with a stronger advantage than before in pivotal states. But Republicans usually come out stronger in presidential elections. What is dispiriting is the way McCain is running the campaign. He should be spending a ton of money in Florida, a true 50-50 state and essential to winning the White House, yet Obama is all over the airwaves, we are drowning in Obama spots, yet McCain ads are far and few between. There is frustration with how McCain is running the campaign from Virginia’s GOP as well along the same lines.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14285.html
We need to pull out all the stops and blanket the pivotal swing states with tons of ads. Where is the RNC in that respect? Where are the 527s? Where are the ballot initiatives that usually bring out many Republicans on voting day? I realize that McCain is at a monetary disadvantage because he decided to go with federal funding, but the RNC should more than make up for that advantage, but have not come in with all guns blazing for whatever reason.
It’s not too late.
Here’s the equation for victory:
OBAMA = FANNIEMAE = FUTURE_DISASTER
Okay, but I live and travel around definitie battleground territory in WV, PA and OH that has more McCain-Palin signs than Obama and possibly more in the last week than I recall seeing for Bush in this area. So maybe at least around these parts the "bitter clingers" are ready.
The argument that these younger people won't vote once registered is untested this year. The Dems are putting all their efforts into GOTV. It is a 2 phase approach, get them registered and then get them to the polls. Not saying the Dems will win, but we can't assume that the young people will follow past elections when it comes to actually voting on election day or via absentee ballot.
Right on!
Odds are that if McCain/Palin loses in 2008, she will quietly go back to Alaska to finish her term and win a second term, and be out of the national eye. People forget, and they don’t like a loser.
I don’t think we will hear much of Palin ever again, except for GOP fundraising.
Wrong. And I am no McCain fan.
What is a Repubot? Is Bill Bennett, well-known Democrat lawyer, a Repubot?
Folks, It’s Not Time to Panic... Yet
El Rushbo will tell you when to panic. So relax.
If McCain won’t fight ferociously, he deserves to lose. I predict he will, starting domani. Palin’s got my vote. But McCain better start firing NOW. I’m tired of waiting-and so are the rest of you.
Thanks for your response...I agree that McCain is blowing his chances. He really needs to focus resources in the KEY battleground states. Unfortunately, I live in California...a state that really has not last minute influence on elections.
Gov Palin is a true Conservative and one day, she will be the Presidential nominee. She's both a fighter and a winner. And she's very popular, which will only increase.
Well, Freepers in the past didn’t know any or many people who voted for Clinton, Gore, or Kerry either, and they all got tens of millions of votes.
It’s self selecting - Freepers hang out with people of like mind or at least an aligned world view.
You’re right, if Obama can’t in PA he can’t win the presidency, but any tales from the front on FR isn’t compelling evidence, sorry.
I suspect rather than deny polls, filter them through a FR decoder ring, or factor in some imaginary Bradley effect, in fact Obama is probably about +6 in the polls right now and there is no evidence of a post VP debate Palin bounce. That’s easier to accept than all sorts of chicanery and defects in all of the polls on the scene.
It’s doable, not a disaster. Just a -2 swing for Obama and a +2 swing for McCain makes that +6 advantage into a +2 advantage for Obama. If that means a tie, we can pull out a close one. If Obama wins many states by 1%, it doesn’t matter much in the end - he wins, and wins big.
Obama has a lead obviously outside the margin but weekend polling is proabably 2-3 points in favor of Dems historically.
The “youth vote will swing the election” argument has been made by every democrat in my lifetime, and just like before my lifetime, they have consistently shown to be the most unreliable voting block in the country.
PA is an old state, you don’t win it with kids, you win it with adults and retirees.
Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.
Scott R: How can you justify doing it this way? If you are reporting a likely voter number, then how can your math include a major adjustment for party id that is based on ADULTS and not LIKELY VOTERS?
Stir the special sauce Scott. Stir. Stir. Stir.
Well here in Cary North Carolina, there are more McCain signs than Obama, and the bumper stickers are running about even.
No way Obama wins NC.
In the 2006 midterms 5.4% more Democrats showed up than Republicans to vote for House members. Senate voting records show that 9.4% more Democrats showed up to vote for the Senate than Republicans did.
Of course, what you are really discounting here in your Republican vs. Democrat argument are the Independents. They make up a huge voting block (about 25% to 30%.) Which way they go decides this election. That is the group that gave us 2006, as they turned their backs on Republicans. If they are in the same mood this time then we get a repeat of 2006. Even the GOP projects losses in the House and Senate and they are trying to keep those as low as possible, so it is not a complete fabrication that we are finding ourselves in a downcycle for Republicans this year.
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