Ethanol doesn't worry me in Iowa. Obama's ground game there is very well established, and McCain skipped the caucus to concentrate on NH. So I think Obama ultimately will win Iowa, but not by much.
Palin might be from Alaska but her accent is pure Wisconsin.
I also expect IA to be close, as it was in 2000 and 2004. McCain cannot win it with today’s poll numbers, but a 3-4 swing in his direction would change everything.