[kesg]

NH is the most likely blue state to flip, followed by WI and PA, then MI, IA or MN.

Somebody here finally gets it. :) I have been talking up Wisconsin, but yes there is also NH. And NM, despite what the recent polling says there. Mark it here: if McCain wins the national vote, he will win NM as well. I also think McCain would have a slightly better chance to steal IA than either MI or MN. I could be wrong about that because of the ethanol issue.

[impeachedrapist]

Yeah, you and I seem to be pretty lonely when talking about Wisconsin. But McCain/Palin's first post-convention visit was to that state.

Ethanol doesn't worry me in Iowa. Obama's ground game there is very well established, and McCain skipped the caucus to concentrate on NH. So I think Obama ultimately will win Iowa, but not by much.

[impeachedrapist]

NH is the most likely blue state to flip, followed by WI and PA, then MI, IA or MN.

As someone corrected me elsewhere, I inadvertently listed Iowa as a "blue" state. Concerning the 2004 election it went red, as I'm sure you know. In 2000 it was blue, and I feel like it's blue from all the negative talk this election. :-)