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Rasmussen: O 50 - M 44
Rasmussen ^ | 9/27/2008 | Rasmussen

Posted on 09/27/2008 6:41:56 AM PDT by ubaldus

Obama's lead in Ras' tracker is now at 6 points (from 5 pts yday and 1 pt a week ago). Since Rasmussen fixes the party ID breakdown at D +5.5, McCain must be trailing with the independents now.

Imo, the only thing which can make it close is a stock market recovery in October. Probably bailout-induced.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; polls; rasmussen
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To: ubaldus
The thing that made Bush seem like he was behind in 2004 is the vast majority of punditry proclaimed that an incumbent who polled under 50% was in serious danger. The media said this over and over and over again, and basically said Bush was toast for this reason. Gallup even blew their final projection because they assigned all undecideds to Kerry. They would have been dead on if they split the undecideds evenly.
101 posted on 09/27/2008 9:50:43 AM PDT by Chet 99
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To: ubaldus

http://slate.msn.com/id/89619/
“Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points.”


102 posted on 09/27/2008 9:53:45 AM PDT by Chet 99
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To: ubaldus

Well, I guess that’s the end of that. It’s official. This country is out of their d @ m n minds.


103 posted on 09/27/2008 9:58:30 AM PDT by dotnetfellow
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To: ubaldus; CatOwner
Party ID: The Case for Weights and Historical Margins (Current polls all oversampling Dems)
104 posted on 09/27/2008 10:23:26 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (This is no time to go wobbly.)
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To: All
Here are the Day by day breakdowns of the race. People forget that this is a tracking poll. (Most recent day first.)

O+11, M+1, O+6, O+10, M+5

Obama 49.81% (49.95%/49.47%/49.40%/48.07%/48.16%)

McCain 44.37% (45.16%/45.96%/46.56%/47.79%/46.81%)

McCain actually won two of the previous 4 day samples, but by smaller margins than the Obama days. The rolling three day average is O+11, M+1, O+6.

Polling is all over the place people. I'm starting to think that these tracking polls are not a good idea.

Keep in mind that all of this polling was pre-debate. Will know the first post-debate sample tomorrow. Problem is, today is Saturday. McCain does better midweek than on weekends.

105 posted on 09/27/2008 10:27:08 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: My Favorite Headache

” I keep hearing supposed independents this morning and after the debates say sh!t like “All McCain did was talk about the past and what he has done and where he has been...very serious...Obama talked about the future and was hopeful...he spoke to me about the issues I cared about”

As I said last night...I love my country to death. But I loathe a majority of the people that reside in it today.”

If you are referring to FRank “ I can’t keep my toupe on straight “ Lunz’s group I think we need to read a little further into that group. They were not true independents, as he identified them as backing Bush/Kerry last time.

Also, his summary was based on 1 older females verbal response.

Look at the 2 clips he shows. On one McCain draws an equal dem/rep response, and on the strong one for Obama, the difference is 6 points, hardly a blowout, and it’s on a topic ( John you were wrong on Afghan ) that in my opinion McCain cleaned his clock on.....

P.s. Wonder how you can be against a war, and then support a war in Afghan ????? seem s to me you built your rep on being Anti War............


106 posted on 09/27/2008 10:29:03 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: Jackson Brown

I was talking to the idea that the debate was going to be that important

I don’t want a disease so Ir eject your invitation to bite you


107 posted on 09/27/2008 10:55:05 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: patriotspride

Yet Code Pink is raising tons of cash for him...aren’t they all anti-war? Shouldn’t they be showing up at Obama rallies now across the country? Ditto if he becomes President? How come they didn’t interrupt the DNC convention?

TOTAL SCAM


108 posted on 09/27/2008 1:17:37 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Forget the 3AM phone call. Obama can not even answer the phone at 3PM.)
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To: My Favorite Headache

I guess it comes down to their seeing they can get something from him that McCain won’t give them, so they will compromise on everything else.


109 posted on 09/27/2008 1:44:59 PM PDT by patriotspride
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To: fortheDeclaration

now it’s 37 days left, and Obama leads by 4.3

leads closer to election are more meaningful, of course


110 posted on 09/27/2008 1:47:11 PM PDT by ubaldus
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To: patriotspride
They were not true independents, as he identified them as backing Bush/Kerry last time.

That's because they voted last time. The only true independents, by your definition, would have to be either non-voters or third-party supporters.

111 posted on 09/27/2008 3:49:22 PM PDT by libravoter (Live from the People's Republic of Cambridge)
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To: libravoter

” That’s because they voted last time. The only true independents, by your definition, would have to be either non-voters or third-party supporters.”

Agree with your assessment, but based my comments on their verbal responses. They certainly sounded like party line voters to me not someone who was being independent............

Maybe you have another view of that if you saw the same segment. Would be interested in your take.

Also I didn’t think Lunz did a good job of letting them state I am registered independent, and after watching I’m now voting Dem/Rep


112 posted on 09/27/2008 5:25:27 PM PDT by patriotspride
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To: GOREFREETENNESSEE

Where do you come up with crap like that???


113 posted on 09/27/2008 9:07:45 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: varon

I honestly felt that zero cleaned his clock... In almost every respect, not even close


114 posted on 09/27/2008 9:11:54 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: albie

I thought it was one more POTUS debate


115 posted on 09/27/2008 9:13:06 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: uncbob

BINGO! Not fighting back, for 8 years, has destroyed him, the GOP and conservatives.


116 posted on 09/27/2008 9:14:09 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: patriotspride
They certainly sounded like party line voters to me not someone who was being independent

Watched it again. Agreed. The Dems seemed liked Dems and the Pubs seemed like Pubs.

117 posted on 09/27/2008 10:36:54 PM PDT by libravoter (Live from the People's Republic of Cambridge)
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To: NYC Republican
What do you mean? The media would make it sound lke a red neck fest. Believe me I am very conservative and definitely think they should get married but I don't think they should make it a big deal so all the Hollywood elites and biased media could turn it into a circus again. They would turn something that is right, into something bad. All the so called designers (project runway types) would have their “fun” designer teen prego dresses out and making fun. Trust me on this one..thats just what they do.
118 posted on 09/28/2008 7:26:02 AM PDT by rbad
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To: NYC Republican

oops sorry I thought you were talking about the palin marriage topic...my bad!


119 posted on 09/28/2008 7:28:45 AM PDT by rbad
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To: GOREFREETENNESSEE

Nope-just questioned the Gore/Bush numbers. Have a good day


120 posted on 09/28/2008 8:18:57 AM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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