Replies

Seems a bit early, but at the rate things are going I’ll probably lose my internet connection.

So I’ll post the pre-debate Intrade snapshot now. Then I’ll put up the post-debate Intrade snapshot later and compare the two, see what Intrade has to say about the winner.

McCain 232 — Obama 306 Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade.

http://www.intrade.com/

2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade

Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
56.9 57.0 57.0 649753 +1.3

2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade

Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
42.1 42.2 42.2 666881 -1.6

The Political Party contract tends to lag the Pres.Individual contract lately.

2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
57.8 59.0 59.0 118124 -0.8

PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
40.5 41.9 41.0 115602 -1.0

Here’s the post debate snapshot.

McCain 227 — Obama 311

2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
53.0 53.1 53.1 670963 -2.6

2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
57.8 58.7 59.0 118124 -0.8

PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
42.0 43.9 44.0 116359 +2.0

2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
45.0 46.0 45.0 678758 +1.2

Old snapshot