Here’s the post debate snapshot.
McCain 227 — Obama 311
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
53.0 53.1 53.1 670963 -2.6
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
57.8 58.7 59.0 118124 -0.8
PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
42.0 43.9 44.0 116359 +2.0
2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
45.0 46.0 45.0 678758 +1.2
McCain 232 — Obama 306 Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade.
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
56.9 57.0 57.0 649753 +1.3
2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
42.1 42.2 42.2 666881 -1.6
The Political Party contract tends to lag the Pres.Individual contract lately.
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
57.8 59.0 59.0 118124 -0.8
PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
40.5 41.9 41.0 115602 -1.0
Here’s my analysis of the debate results from Intrade, comparing pre- and post-debate numbers. McCain won handily with a 6.7 poing swing in his favor on the individual contracts at high volume. But there’s one glitch in the Electoral Votes on the front page of Intrade. McCain lost some ground there. Perhaps it is one of those contracts that lags the more emotional President.Individual contracts.
New: McCain 227 — Obama 311
Old: McCain 232 — Obama 306 Change: +5 for Obama
Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade.
McCain losing ground?
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Change
New: 53.1 670963
Old: 57.0 649753 -3.9 (21210 volume)
2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Change
New: 45.0 678758
Old: 42.2 666881 +2.8 (11877 volume)
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Chge
New: 59.0 118124
Old: 59.0 118124 No change in volume nor price
PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Old/New Last Vol Change
New: 44.0 116359
Old: 41.0 115602 + 3.0 on 757 Volume