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Rasmussen 9/26/08: Obama 50% McCain 45%
Rasmussen Daily Tracking ^

Posted on 09/26/2008 6:29:14 AM PDT by CatOwner

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is Obama’s biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. In fact, on only two days since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June has Obama enjoyed a lead bigger than he has today.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; mccainpalin
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To: Tuxedo
This is the same pollster who did Portait of America polls back in 2000. Sorry - not buying. He was way off back then. Had us thinking W landslide.

True, but he was much closer in 2004, after he changed his methodology to weigh his results by party affiliation. To be sure, most pollsters pretty much nailed the 2004 election as a 2-3 point Bush win, so I don't know how much stock to put into this result. Likewise, I don't know if that was dumb luck or if he improved his robot phone methodololgy that he uses. I don't remember how good his state-by-state polling was, either.

Again, in the current poll I very strongly suspect here is that the problem is a huge outlier day for Obama on Tuesday. It drops off tomorrow.

81 posted on 09/26/2008 7:16:40 AM PDT by kesg
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To: freedomwarrior998

How do you know that Tuesday was +11 Obama and last night was +1.25 McCain?


82 posted on 09/26/2008 7:16:56 AM PDT by tatown (How to piss off a liberal: Work hard and be happy!)
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To: NoLibZone

Another Rasmussen poll shows McCain ahead a point.

To preserve my sanity, I’m gonna quit paying attention to these polls. Come on, Nov. 4th!


83 posted on 09/26/2008 7:19:05 AM PDT by hoe_cake (" 'We the people' tell the government what to do, it doesn't tell us." Ronald Reagan)
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To: over3Owithabrain
Most of the average voters who don’t go to FR or other blogs didn’t see an OODA loop or any complicated strategery on McCain’s part, they just kneejerk react to Obama wanting to debate and McCain not. McCain may have even expected that and is hoping the endgame to this situation turns things around.

Most of the average voters don't have much more brains than the people that don't vote

Well the majority get the government they deserve --unfortunately the minority that don't deserve it get it also
84 posted on 09/26/2008 7:20:08 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Piquaboy
I have not talked to one voter that will vote Obama.Yeah, there are many stupid people that will but they are not the majority in this great country.
85 posted on 09/26/2008 7:21:23 AM PDT by BARLF
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To: freedomwarrior998

Where do you get the 1.25% number? I don’t subscribe to Rasmussen’s service, but I do keep an Excel chart where I try to guess the individual nights based on changes in the national average. And my chart is showing the same huge night for Obama as you are indicating here, although for me I am guessing 7 points rather than 11 — still a ridiculously huge number for Obama in a Rasmussen poll.


86 posted on 09/26/2008 7:21:55 AM PDT by kesg
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
The latest financial crisis/scandal has been blamed on Republicans by the very Democrats who should be tried and convicted for it. Yet, they are getting away with it lock, stock and barrel, with the media’s help.

And the GOP sits back and takes it like they have for years --only thing keeping them elected is the grass Roots movement
87 posted on 09/26/2008 7:22:37 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: CatOwner
How do you know this? even if true, that means that yesterday's number is not as good for McCain as the number that rolled off (Monday).

By my calculations, McCain narrowly won Monday in Rasmussen's poll. Right now it seems obvious that Rasmussen's numbers are out of whack because he had one of those 5% nights on Tuesday where one of the candidates polled over three standard deviations outside of the mean (wonky statistics lingo which in plain English translates into "outlier", which can happen roughly 5% of the time).

88 posted on 09/26/2008 7:25:16 AM PDT by kesg
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To: God luvs America

Lets just hope Zogby is the lucky blind squirrel that finally finds his acorn.


89 posted on 09/26/2008 7:26:40 AM PDT by JZelle
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To: BARLF

I sure pray that you are right. This country cannot stand a Obama as president.


90 posted on 09/26/2008 7:28:32 AM PDT by Piquaboy (22 year veteran of the Army, Air Force and Navy, Pray for all our military .)
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To: JZelle
Zogby is not alone. Battleground is also showing McCain +2 and Gallup has them even and seems to be trending toward McCain.
91 posted on 09/26/2008 7:31:20 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

I’m gonna spew...


92 posted on 09/26/2008 7:32:19 AM PDT by beagleone
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To: DallasBiff
JMO, you three above have a lot of money in Wall Street and want to be bailed out.

If you don't need credit or a job, you'll be alright without some kind of bailout.

93 posted on 09/26/2008 7:34:22 AM PDT by Stentor (Obama is Bill Ayers' Renfield.)
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To: God luvs America
Rasmussen is a fly in the ointment only becaause you don’t like his numbers

That's not true. I haven't attacked Rasmussen or his methodology I'm just wondering why his results are so different from every other tracking poll. I'm more interested in the way the numbers are trending at this point in the game than I am in the raw numbers. As I stated earlier Zogby, Battleground Tracking and Gallop all have McCain trending up. Rasmussen is mising the trend. Why?

94 posted on 09/26/2008 7:37:27 AM PDT by pgkdan
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To: CatOwner

Catowner,

ABC/WaPo has already been analyzed and debunked as an outlier. They oversampled dems by 16% (vs 3% actual over the last 4-5 elections), and oversampled African Americans by 6%.

Rasmussen seems to lag.

Batteground is one of the best since it is done by BOTH a democratic and republican pollster.

Regardless, national polls do not matter. Better off to look at state polls, which unfortunately are less frequent and have a larger MOE.

What is really the thing to look at is the internals and demographics of the polls. McCain is winning almost every demographic profile. Women, Catholics, Independants, and even younger voters have shift to McCain the last month.

Obama peaked in February, and has not made any progress in expanding his voter demographics since that time.


95 posted on 09/26/2008 7:38:43 AM PDT by gswilder
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To: avacado
I made the point yesterday, and have been for a short while, that Rasmussen's state and National Party ID expected turnout breakdown is just too heavily favoring Democrats.

He has openly swayed from his traditional models this election season, and I think it's going to hurt his credibility.

He has a rather large - near six point - Democrat turnout edge figured in to his national polls, and is apparently doing the same in his state polls - assuming larger Dem-to-GOP turnout gaps than have presented themselves in the past few elections.

His assumption just doesn't seem plausible. For example, if the turnout was 5-6 percent more Dems, there would be no swing states - they'd all be blue. It is starting to reveal itself in his polls.

96 posted on 09/26/2008 7:39:14 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: JZelle

believe me...I pray, and pray hard, that is the case....


97 posted on 09/26/2008 7:44:08 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: All
IMO, the 3 pollsters, Battleground, Ras, and Gallup are all pretty good for national trends... Mason-Dixon is the best at state polling in southern states...

The way I'd view these polls is the way RCP does it, but discount the blatantly biased ones, like the MSM polls... So... as of right now, with McCain +2, Gallup even, Ras -5 (Diageo/Hotline is Zero up 4), it's safe to assume that Zero is up about 2 points... Nothing to panic about right now.

98 posted on 09/26/2008 7:46:40 AM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: Piquaboy
Have faith my friend.

Do you really believe polls can change the mind of one voter this late in the game? I think most voters have already made a choice between Mac and Obama. Aren't the pollsters paid to do their job? If so, then why not jiggle the numbers to create a following?

It's nonsense, make up your own mind. People can lie to pollsters and who's to say pollsters don't change what the voter tells them?

99 posted on 09/26/2008 7:49:04 AM PDT by BARLF
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To: CatOwner
How do you know this? even if true, that means that yesterday's number is not as good for McCain as the number that rolled off (Monday).

Rasmussen breaks down the day to day numbers for premium members.

The Rasmussen poll trended to Obama for two reasons.

1st: 1 +5 McCain sample rolled off.
2nd: A Huge +11 Obama sample on Tuesday.

That big Obama sample rolls off tomorrow. The poll should track toward McCain baring another huge Obama sample tonight.

100 posted on 09/26/2008 7:49:20 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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