Birmingham firm strikes Barack Obama presidential coin for the DNC.
Posted on 09/23/2008 9:29:44 PM PDT by tlb
Democrat Takes 52-43 Lead Among Likely Voters, Erases Republican's Post-Palin Pick Gains
Barack Obama has seized the reins of economic discontent, vaulting over John McCain's convention gains by persuading voters he both better understands their economic troubles and can better address them.
In a head-to-head-match-up he's now supported by 52 percent of likely voters vs. McCain's 43 percent, the first significant advantage for either candidate among likely voters in ABC/Post polls.
Add third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr and it's essentially the same, 51-43 percent.
The contest has shifted from a 49-47 percent McCain-Obama race immediately after the Republican convention.
McCain's bounce -- on individual issues and attributes as well as in overall preference -- is gone.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
WTF is this? this way off from all the other polls. Did they poll 60% Democrats?
Agreed. I don’t think the answer passes the “smell test.” I find it hard to believe voters trust Obama in every category. Something isn’t right here.
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Yes, what “isn’t right” is the POLL, LOL!
What makes anyone think that ABC, being a powerful network that is totally in the tank for Obama in every second of their coverage on radio and TV WOULDN’T commission a biased poll to trumpet their message home?
I see this as a sign of desperation. I’ve read older polls that Obama was WINNING where he was losing by a good margin on the War in Iraq, and International Crisis, etc.
I’m supposed to trust a poll that shows him close and WINNING on these issues? Please, the MSM is trying to CREATE the image of him winning, they are attitude channelling. I look at that polls internals and I find it to be WORTHLESS, since they are 20-30% off on the internals compared to the big pollsters.
The story was written before the “poll” was taken.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Actually I'd expect McCain/xxx would be down by 10 pts in all surveys by now if he picked somebody else. Palin energized the base more than anybody else. These people are the ones who not only will come to vote but also volunteer for GOTV, poll watchers, etc.
Does anyone know who does the poll for ABC/WaPo?
Too bad the Republicans are too weak and cowardly to fight back properly.
Well, if you're willing to join me in doing the fighting back, follow the instructions on this page: http://freedomkeys.com/dems2blame.htm
Too many Democrats (38%), too few Republicans (28%)in this sample. This is the favorite Jedi mind trick of media polls. In every Presidential election since 1988, neither party had more than a four point advantage over the other party. You can safely disregard any poll with a spread of more than 4 points between Democrats and Republicans. It isn’t scientifically valid because the sample used is not representative of the actual voting population (it contains too many Rats and not enough GOPers).
To put this in perspective, there is evidence in Rasmussen’s tracking poll that Obama polled better on 9/19 and 9/20, while McCain polled slightly better the next two nights. He had the race even this morning.
In Gallup, Obama polled slightly better on 9/19-9/21, but McCain polled even last night. This is among registered voters. Gallup says that its likely voter pool is about 4-5 points more Republican than its registered voter pool (which it uses for its daily tracking). This morning all this translated to a 3 point lead for Obama among registered voters, suggesting that McCain has in fact pulled even or even taken a small lead among likely voters.
I read that going into the republican convention that the candidates internal polls showed McCain up by double digits. What is right?
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Both campaigns internal polls are the BEST money can buy, they need to know where they stand, not propaganda. Obama pulling out of states, campaigning in traditional blue states and McCain opening 50 offices in California tells you more than ANY poll. No matter if our guy is up by 10 or down by 10. Look at what the campaigns are doing and they will tell you what the polls are. Obama is losing, and not by a small margin.
The people living in this country REALLY need to cut down on the recreational drugs.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
“McCain may have been a bit too maverick in his VP choice. He was repeatedly advised to pick a known finance whiz. We’ll see.”
Mitt Romney as VP is looking awfully good right now.
ABC, enough said
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If you lose Halperin, it’s over.
Yes, I’m sure Mitt Romney would have had the impact of Sarah Palin. If he picked Romney, Lieberman, or Ridge I would have written in Ronald Reagan, along with a good percentage here.
Mitt Romney was good when he hosted “Love Connections”, he has no business being on a REPUBLICAN national ticket.
Yes, but the editors in those newsrooms decide which polling firms do their polls and if they like a polling firm that gets them results to help them lead their news with, they’ll use them. They are no different than polls the DNC or the RNC will take to get a desired outcome.
Again, the samples in this poll are crap. The fact that Obama is getting close or higher numbers than McCain in issues that McCain owns by wide margins in other polls should have led the polling director for ABC/Washington Compost to call their pollster and say “this poll is trash and run it again.” But they probably kept this poll so they could make the big news in the morning knowing other polls will be coming out soon. I bet NBC/Wall Street Journal will have their poll out tomorrow because they usually have it out for Thursday’s jouranl. ABC just wants to be a part of the 24 hour newscycle and make a splash with it.
“Let’s see how many of them sober up or take the trouble to vote though.”
Jim - good point!!! I say, let not our hearts be troubled - for now, anyway.
I still feel pretty optimistic about November. I’ve gotten my best friend to see (since a couple of months ago) just how much can happen in a short time, even week to week. And we’ve still got quite a bit of time between now and then.
I assume this means that their sample of adults (or registered voters) included more than 12 percent blacks, which would tend to skew the numbers towards Obama.
This is a bad sample. It isn't representative of the people who will actually vote in this election. In every election since 1988, the percentage of Democratic voters never exceeded the percentage of Republican voters by more than 4 points. In 2004, the Democrats did not have an advantage at all. Here, the spread is a whopping 10 points.
Another problem with this poll is that the likely voter numbers were nearly identical to the registered voter numbers -- yet another indication that the sample was overpopulated with Democrats. According to Gallup, the likely voter pool should be about 4-5 points more Republican than the registered voter pool.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Oh give me a break.
42%? No way in Hell. I don’t even have to read the internals and questioning to know this one is worthless. If they want it believable put it at 45%-46%.
Excuse me - everyone is yelling “DOOM!” “BIASED POLL!” “MCCAIN IS IN TROUBLE!”
There’s a simpler explanation:
Outlier.
This is just completely at odds with other numbers that were released today. Why does everyone seem to jump on bad numbers like this when it is so at odds with other numbers?
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