Poll: Economic Discontent Boosts Barack Obama Over John McCain (Obama 52 , McCain 43)

ABC ^ | Sept. 24, 2008 | GARY LANGER

[tlb]

Democrat Takes 52-43 Lead Among Likely Voters, Erases Republican's Post-Palin Pick Gains

Barack Obama has seized the reins of economic discontent, vaulting over John McCain's convention gains by persuading voters he both better understands their economic troubles and can better address them.

In a head-to-head-match-up he's now supported by 52 percent of likely voters vs. McCain's 43 percent, the first significant advantage for either candidate among likely voters in ABC/Post polls.

Add third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr and it's essentially the same, 51-43 percent.

The contest has shifted from a 49-47 percent McCain-Obama race immediately after the Republican convention.

McCain's bounce -- on individual issues and attributes as well as in overall preference -- is gone.

[ari-freedom]

Gerald Ford?? who cares about him?

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

This is a poll of adults

The first sentence says: 'Lead Among Likely Voters'.

[kesg]

An Ipsos poll? And Obama up only 1 point among registered voters? Excellent! This further confirms movement back to McCain that I have seen in the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls the last two days.

[goldstategop]

We have their word for it they excluded them. But even if we do - the party ID spread is too wide to be realistic. The entire poll has an air of unreality to it. If you asked Kellyanne Conway if this is a good poll, she'd laugh at you and so would every other professional pollster.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[ari-freedom]

[Lazarus Starr]

I believe this poll about as much as I believe Islam is a religion of peace. /s

[fantom]

The old media is in a last chance power try. If mac wins they know that the final thread of there influence snapped . They will stop at nothing. In the end it won’t be enough.

[kesg]

the over sample here of the black voters runs along the lines of BLACK POPULATION percentage (16-18%) not a traditional breakdown of the voting electorate...

Good catch. Blacks make up approximately 12% of the population, but my understanding is that they they make up only about 10% of registered voters. So, not only is the poll oversampling Democrats, but also it is oversampling the most reliably Democratic voting block among the Democrats.

[housedeep]

your right fantom

i mean look at how things have changed...we can even take this garbage poll..dissect it...and provide that information to all of our individual networks...all in real time.

the liberal media machine is now irrelevant.

[roses of sharon]

LOL, every two years......the FR poll trolls emerge to give “advice”.

[word_warrior_bob]

. It is being whispered that Gov. Palin should do a Harriet Miers for the good of the country.

____________

PUH-LEEZE! You win bizarre post of the year.

[CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC]

Maybe someone at ABC is guessing/hoping that liberal Blacks will turn out in MUCH larger numbers to vote than in the past - maybe 20% to 50%?? more, and that other demographic groups (eg White Republicans) won't come close to matching that?

Who knows!

[goldstategop]

And even if they were excluded, the results are still skewed. If we correct the figures, of course, then it wouldn't be "news."

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

It won't happen. In 2004, GOP turnout was only 4% above 2000 levels. The Democrats have to exceed Kerry's levels but we know for a fact there is no way Obama will hold all of Kerry's voters. So even a fantastic black turnout will not be enough to make up the difference, if all he has besides the blacks are eggheads and white latte liberals.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[1035rep]

LOL, MSN tries to stop the bleeding. Even Barry knows better.

[eyedigress]

Even though I am non-denominational please watch this.

http://www.catholicvote.com/

[1035rep]

Are you using babblefish?

[ruschpa]

How do you know Obama won’t hold Kerry’s voters...? Unfortunately, I believe Obama will have a huge turnout from the Democratic base. To me, it seems Obama’s voters are far more passionate in supporting him than any supporters were for Kerry. Too many people I’ve heard from and read about treat Obama like some deity... the second coming of JFK.

[fantom]

I know the old media are more passionate , where do you see the passion from the voters at large ?

[goldstategop]

Simply because he is black. The kind of people who accepted Kerry will never accept Obama. And even the MSM has admitted there are Democrats who just can't bring themselves to vote for him.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus