Posted on 09/18/2008 10:09:23 AM PDT by CatOwner
See link.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
I don't do polls. No exceptions.
Well, maybe one; post-Election Day.
Gallup/CNN/USA Today U.S. Poll: Kerry 49%, Bush 48%
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/gallup_cnn_usa_today_us_poll_kerry_49_bush_48/
OCTOBER 12, 2004
Well, it did in Hollywood. Last night. While every normal American was wondering about his financial future,
To the tune of 8 million $, I understand.
We all know how important Hollywood is...
< /sarc >
This is what doesn’t make sense with these national polls.. the internals still keep showing Fauxbama losing support across nearly every demographic, yet they show the race tigtening. This is in spite of state polls that continue to show McCain momentum (and please stop the delay between state and national polls, I’m not buying it, as several battleground state polls have come out over the same timeframe and aren’t showing any major tightening.)
Something variable is out of whack somewhere, its not being captured, or not being captured effectively by either a pleathera of state polls, or the handful of daily national tracking polls. I am not suggesting the pollsters are lying about what they are getting in their polling, just that something is going on that they aren’t capturing.
Other than large support moves in already blue states, (increased depth of support for Fauxbama in states he’s already holding) suddenly appearing, this doesn’t add up to me.
Fauxbama does not have a 4 point lead in this race nationally, no way in hell. Somethings going on that’s just not being captured, and I’m a bit confused as to what it could be.
RE: “And yet the Battleground states are as strong as ever for McCain?!?!”
A few things to remember: This is a GALLUP poll; it’s still only September; and the infamous Bradley effect has yet to be taken into account.
I intend to try to relax, at least until late October.
And that's the only info given from Gallup's site. Nothing on the breakdown of Dems vs Repubs.
The media was exactly the same in 2004 and look who won. Don’t overestimate their influence on so many voting Americans.
this negativity coming from bad polls as well as good polls is a little too obvious....
Real freepers ...don't fall for these seldom posting freepers....they want to depress our vote..they never will be able to do that...
I am by no means an expert at analyzing polls but common sense would tell me that you will get inconsistent results depending on who you poll. You could poll 1,000 people one day and the majority my want McCain to win and vice versa the next day.
I am thinking the swings in the polls now are due to the undecideds. Most people who are passionate about their candidate will not change their votes due to the news cycle, but some of the undecideds will.
I think the reasons why some of the undecideds are uncertain on who they will vote for is because they have a bad case of analysis paralysis. These are the types of people who get overwhelmed with a lot of information so they are not well informed on the candidates issues and positions so they rely on news clips from TV and radio to form their opinion on a given day. This is why politicians always try so hard to give good sound bites at rally’s, commercials, etc. Many Americans are impatient and don't want to take the time to research the issues so they rely on these sound bites and 60 second news clips. If the news is damaging to Republicans one day they will want Obama to win and vice versa.
The beauty of these types of people is that when you get a bad case of analysis paralysis you often go with what you know or what you trust. An example of that would be your cup of morning coffee. You can't make up your mind on whether you want your regular or something new. You get overwhelmed with making up your mind and in the end go with your regular coffee because it is familiar to you and a safe choice. McCain is the safe familiar choice and Obama is the unknown.
LOL, I know I am rambling here, but I am speaking from experience. I get analysis paralysis almost daily but don't do it with my politics.
there are many more things than politics that are important....
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The bad part is that if Obammy wins this one it will turn everything upside down. There has never been an election with this much at stake. Even if Gore or Kerry or even Hillar had been elected president it would not be half as scary as Obama.
The polling people need for this to stay interesting. I think this poll is “over sampled”.
You can't argue with success, and the Democrats aren't. They feel they have found the Rosetta Stone of politics and are successfully implementing it. They just pull out the same old winning play book and fool a huge percentage of gullible American voters once again. Every year. And this year is no different.
The Clintons did it for years and the Democrat Congress and Senate did the same thing in 2006 and are doing it this year. It doesn't matter how outrageous they get. The total joke of an Oil Bill they just passed is a perfect example. It gives them the cover they need for the next election which is all they care about.
In a sane America, Republicans would gain 12 Senate seats and 200 Congressional seats in 2008. Instead, they will lose ground and maybe the Presidency.
The Big Lie works.
It usually does.
Just ask Satan.
It is quite possible for Obama bin Biden to win popular vote
but lose what counts....Electoral vote.
For example if McCain does not spend much money in states
like CA & NY, he could lose big there thereby skewing the
popular vote.
All McCain needs to do is win the red states and a lot of
battleground by a small margin.
True...it will be dang scary if he wins. I just get tired of being worried about it all.
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