[Anti-Hillary]

Oversampled Dems by 11 pts. Help me out with what this means.

[1035rep]

If they need to oversample to get their desired result...I’d say we are probably ahead. The gap is closing in Washington so Oregon’s should be also.

[chaos_5]

I think it means they are desperate to create a poll that shows Obama winning somewhere.

[goldstategop]

Oregon I'd write off because of Portland and Eugene. The rural hinterland doesn't have enough votes to overcome the edge in the coastal Democratic cities!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[TheWasteLand]

My guess is this poll, like many others, weights its results according to party identification numbers. Those numbers have favored Dems for a few years, but recently the GOP has been playing catchup and may be close to the Dems now.

This poll does not seem to be accounting for the recent GOP surge, either unintentionally or intentionally.

[nwrep]

They have oversampled Republicans in this poll. The current party id in the state is 56%-42% D-R.

http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf

[bioprof]

Kind of an old poll.....through 9/9 only?

[DAC21]

If it was a national poll it would be oversampling. This is an Oregon poll, certainly in Oregon there are a higher percentage of Rats vs. the National average. This result is probably in line to Oregon's voting pattern of the last 12 years

[mojito]

I would guess that the Democrat/Republican breakdown probably accurately reflects the actual registration percentage in the state.

It's Independents who are way under-sampled. I recall reading (and I may be mistaken) that something like 40% of Oregon voters are independent.

McCain/Palin might do better than expected in the Portland suburbs. If they do, it might be very close.

Still a hard road. Even in a McCain landslide, I would expect Oregon to go Obama.

[Jagdgewehr]

I would be very surprised if Oregon went McCain/Palin. McCain Palin may considerably close the gap on Obama/Biden, but the state is solid blue.

[AuntB]

“Not unlike most of the nation, McCain fared best in the more rural areas, while Obama enjoyed his strongest support in the more populous cities of Portland and Eugene. The random sample of 600 Oregon voters took into account increased registrations among Democrats, particularly in the Tri-County area. Statewide, the poll surveyed 46% democrats, 35% republicans and 20% unaffiliated voters.”

Conservatives need a ‘get out the vote’ registration effort in Oregon.

[CapnJack]

They oversample Dems by 11% because that is probably the way the registration of voters breaks down. I don't think that the 11% oversampling of Dems it too far out of line.

Oregon is NOT going to vote for McCain, so I don't think we need to get excited about McCain's chances there.

Reps need to guard against overconfidence in this race. The Palin phenomenon will fade when the the end of month is here and the “debates” start. Then it will be issues that will matter to people.

[KayEyeDoubleDee]

Oversampled Dems by 11 pts.

Oversampled in national terms, maybe, but did they oversample in Oregonian terms?

[Dagny Taggart]

The sample represents the percentages of the Oregon electorate and it would not be reflective of the real outcome any other way. They must do that in every poll or it is not an accurate poll. I’ll bet if you did New York 50% 50% you might get McCain a little ahead in New York.

[poindexter]

Alas, we are seeing the result of “Californication” of Oregon and Washington, and to an extent Idaho and Nevada. Once liberal governance made living in California less appealing, (it really got in gear in the ‘80s) they started moving up to Oregon and Washington. Guess what...they brought their liberal politics with them.

This is the result.

[rbg81]

If Obama can’t win Oregon, he is finished. That’s like McCain losing Kansas.

[StormEye]

"Oversampled Dems by 11 pts. Help me out with what this means."

It means they don't want to tell the truth. They just want to keep scam going.

[Straight Vermonter]

Some pollsters go by party registration to get the mix of voters they want. Others use historical numbers. It really is to try to be more accurate not to fudge the results.

[GoSarah]

Lots of indies and even GOP switched to Dem just to vote in the primary. I almost did the same thing but I decided I didn’t want to be bugged by whoever won the primary for campaign money to the end of time.

[MinorityRepublican]

Oversampled Dems by 11 pts. Help me out with what this means.

In Maryland, that sounds about right.

[MinorityRepublican]

Oversampled Dems by 11 pts. Help me out with what this means.

In Maryland, that sounds about right.