Posted on 09/14/2008 9:49:11 AM PDT by flyfree
One Month, Two Conventions, and Two VP Picks Later, Presidential Race Unchanged in Minnesota: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 09/12/08, 53 days to Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Today, it's Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Obama and McCain are each up two points overall. Little has changed, and what changes have occurred appear to have offset one another. Among men, McCain had led by 3, now leads by 5. Among women, Obama had led by 9, still leads by 9. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 4, now leads by 5. Among voters who are older than John McCain, a flip: McCain had led by 4, now trails by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, a flip in the opposite direction; Obama had led by 3, now trails by 3.
1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents favor McCain by 9 points, up from 2 points last month -- but at the same time, the percentage of Minnesota's likely voters who identify themselves as Independents has fallen from 24% last month to 16% today, blunting the impact and increasing the margin of error associated with this 7 point McCain climb.
In NE Minnesota, McCain today leads by 14 points, a flip from last month, when Obama led by 8. In Western MN, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 3, an effective tie. In Southern Minnesota, the two candidates remain tied. In the Twin Cities area, Obama moves from a tie to a 6-point lead.
I’m not a big fan of this particular polling outfit, but this poll is pretty much consistent with national polls showing McCain leading by 3-5 points.
This is GREAT news for McCain. Minn should be a ten-to-fifteen lock by Obama-bin-Biden and now they have to spend their limited funds in a State that should be a given. McCain has a cash advantage, and the polls are in his favor EVERYWHERE that counts!
This will now be known forever in Democrat circles as “The Withdrawal in Saint Paul”.
Thanks for posting this. I have been looking for it as I am actually one of the people that was polled.
It’s the first time I ever received a call from any polling service.
To be honest Survey USA is pretty good outfit. I trust them more then many others..they do random sampling so they pick up movement well.
Pretty good for the land of Humphrey.
It is also consistent with this poll of Minnesota.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2082005/posts
That's the 8th District, normally a Dem stronghold.It's Iron Range country....with lots of hockey moms and snow machines and deer and moose hunters. A Palin rally at the Hockey Hall of Fame in Eveleth could tip Minnesota red.
More good news in MN.
The Star-Tribune poll show it dead even at 45 to 45.
I wonder if some of those Obamabots are regretting slamming Sarah Palin for sounding like Marge Gunderson from the movie “Fargo”. Ya think?
A few good 527 ads in the Gopher state should be able to push McCain/Palin over the top.
The Iron Range? That's as yellow dog as it gets.
McCain-Palin being within the margin of error in Minnesota which is the bluest state in the Midwest is not good news for B. Hussein (The Kenyan-Indonesian) Obama.
It sounds like the pollster is adjusting the independent vote down while keeping the dem/repub ratio the same. If so, this will mask an increase for McCain if those indies are breaking for Republicans rather than Dems.
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