Posted on 09/13/2008 10:21:03 PM PDT by TomEwall
I considered the states that Rasmussen has listed as leaning or toss-ups and used the "Last" values for Intrade to determine the probability of a given state being won. Doing a weighted average, I came with McCain's expected value to be 268.74, which is just under 269, a tie.
Doing a Monte Carlo simulation I came up with the probability of a McCain win being 49.4%, a similar result to the weighted average.
Final elections day results: McCain 52% Obama 47%.
McCain: 91% Repubicans, 57% Independets, 18% democrats.
Obama: 82% democrats, 43% Independets, 3% Republicans.
Good call.
I tried that years ago, getting rid of the '51', as there was no active 'Condor' account - couldn't do it. Someone used that handle when FR started and I was asked if I was him. When I said no, 'they' said no. Again, this was even though that was an inactive account and non used screen-name.
Good luck in trying.
Thanks :)
As a native of Ohio, I agree 100%.
I’m in Maryland now, but am from Akron originally. I used to frequent an all-night cafe in Akron and many of the guys that came in there were exactly the kind of guys that you describe - union workers, 40-60 years old, white, socially moderate to conservative.
They might not like Republicans, but let me tell you something. I heard those guys talk late at night after their second-shift let out. Some of them are, admittedly, either racist or at least very suspect of a minority in power. There’s two things that scare them more than Bush, or Republicans—blacks, and Muslims. Even those that don’t have the racial component still don’t like a man who is anti-troop, anti-patriot, etc.
THat’s why Obama will not do as well in OH, MI, WI or PA as people think.
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