Nothing a hungry Florida Yard Dawg can't fix.
Posted on 09/12/2008 8:01:41 PM PDT by Chet 99
Florida may be falling from Obama's grasp
By Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor
Published Friday, September 12, 2008 10:16 PM
Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.
Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America's biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state.
Obama can still win Florida despite the polling gains McCain has made since naming Sarah Palin his running mate, and there is no sign Obama is pulling back in Florida yet. Far from it. Obama allies say he has about 350 paid staffers in the state and about 50 field offices, including in places not known as fertile ground for Democrats, such as Sun City Center, Lake City and Sebring.
But for all the attention to Florida from the Obama campaign, there's little tangible evidence it's paying off.
He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.
Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.
"They've had everything going for them — momentum, enthusiasm, money, a complicit national press, a stiff wind at his back for a long time, and he hasn't been able pull ahead in Florida,'' said Republican strategist Alberto Martinez of Tallahassee. "I think Florida is one of those states that's taken off the board pretty soon, as they start focusing resources on states they can win."
Democrats say that's nonsense.
"Look, except for a little bounce after the Republican convention this race has basically been anywhere from a dead heat to a two- or three-point race all along,'' said Steve Schale, Obama's Florida campaign manager.
"Our job is to stay focused and continue building the largest and most comprehensive campaign organization this state has ever had. Compared to what McCain has on the ground at this point, our operation is far superior," he said.
The McCain campaign, while sounding a lot more upbeat about Florida than a few weeks ago, takes nothing for granted.
"We're certainly not planting a victory flag. I think Florida will be competitive,'' said Buzz Jacobs, McCain's campaign manager for the Southeast. "But the base of our party is energized like it's never been before. I think we are attracting Democrats and independents into our party at a greater rate than we were a few weeks ago. … We are getting some of those Hillary Clinton supporters especially, and I think the Obama campaign is very worried about that."
McCain is scheduled to campaign in Jacksonville, Orlando and Miami on Monday and hold a rally at the Tampa Convention Center on Tuesday morning. Obama will be in Coral Gables raising money Friday, though no public events are scheduled yet.
"If we don't start seeing more of Obama in Florida it will be a clear sign that, like Bill Clinton in 1992, he will pull his resources out of Florida in the final weeks," said Brian Crowley, a longtime political reporter who is now an analyst in North Palm Beach. "He can still win here, but he needs to focus on the economy and spend a lot time campaigning in Florida, especially among swing voters along the I-4 corridor."
The scope of the Obama investment in Florida to date makes it less likely the campaign will scale back anytime soon, said Karl Koch of Tampa, who helped run the Florida campaigns for Bill Clinton and Al Gore.
"They've invested very heavily in this state, and it's clear to me that investment will pay off on election day,'' said Koch. "To make a decision that denies you the opportunity to put that operation in place I think would be misplaced."
Hopefully Obama spends at least another $8M in Florida.
Or maybe he pulls 300 paid staffers to more competative states.
Like North Carolina. :)
Nothing a hungry Florida Yard Dawg can't fix.
Last I heard, it was a toss up between McCain and some guy named Chad.
Maybe Mr Brilliant shouldn’t have been so $h1tty to the Dem Primary voters in Florida. “Every vote counts...but only if it is for ME!” made him & the DNC look very petty, and now those same voters are supposed to flock to his banner?
Illinois must be tracking below 50% for Barry. Last poll found is 8/12/08, so it MUST be lower since Sarah came into view...
Northwest Florida is solidly McCain territory. I rarely if ever see an Obama sticker or sign. The letters to the editor in the local fishwrap are 9/10 pro-McCain (or really Pro-Palin).
with Lieberman in Florida...ding ding dong....Obama is gone
Look at PA’s history over the recent election cycles. The Republican candidate has improved every four years.
Rules for Radicals provides the organizer with a tactical style for community organization that assumes an adversarial relationship between groups of people in which one either dominates or is dominated.
“The first rule of power tactics is: power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have.”
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“Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules. You can kill them with this. They can no more obey their own rules than the Christian church can live up to Christianity.”
Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. It is almost impossible to counterattack ridicule. Also, it infuriates the opposition, who then react to your advantage.”
“The threat is generally more terrifying than the thing itself.”
“In a fight almost anything goes. It almost reaches the point where you stop to apologize if a chance blow lands above the belt.”
“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”
MAYBE IT ONLY APPEARS THEY HAVE THE LARGEST ORGANIZATION EVER IN FLORIDA BECAUSE THEY SAY SO.I HAVE SEEN TWO OBAMA YARDS SIGNS IN MY WHOLE DAMNED TOWN OF PANAMA CITY
Don’t EVER forget the attempt at sabotage by the US media when they called the state for Gore at 7:50 pm Eastern Time, over an hour before the polls closed in the Panhandle. Hundreds, if not thousands, of people who were already in line or on their way to the polls to vote for GWB left the line or turned their cars around thinking that their votes would not change the outcome. That is the REAL reason Florida was close enough in 2000 for “Big Al” to have the opportunity to call for the recount and try to steal the election.
Part of me wants him to stay in Florida and waste precious resources that would otherwise be extra spent in Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia. But another part wants him to leave just so we can guarantee Florida. I am leaning toward the former.
Slipping? Florida is already RED. The average of the four polls has McCain up by 5. Leaving out a probable dud poll by Fox (tied) and McCain is up by nearly 7.
The Bradley Effect will hit south Florida like a hurricane.
No worries. The whole state uses optical scanners now. You bubble in your choice and the paper gets scanned. If you overvote, the paper is kicked right back so it can be corrected before the voter leaves.
No worries. The whole state uses optical scanners now. You bubble in your choice and the paper gets scanned. If you overvote, the paper is kicked right back so it can be corrected before the voter leaves.
Florida is not going to be a squeaker with McCain/Palin and neither is Ohio. Obama has a big problem and it isn’t going to be solved by him calling McCain an old guy from the 80s.
Sorry about the double post. I overposted.
Thank you for the belly laugh.
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