The overall “best model” is reputed to be GFDL - right now, the animation has Ike getting almost up to Cat.2 in the Great Lakes, and Cat.4 now. Fortunately NHC ignores it and has forecasters who can think.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad
I wish I could shove this down the throat of everyone who bases everything about “climate change” “global warming” being “settled science” when that is completely based on computer models.
That would be the mother of all storms, that would probably trump 911.