In PA, Obama ads assaulted the airwaves nonstop during the primary and still he lost decisively to Hillary. Some polls showed him within striking distance of her, but when the votes were cast, it was pretty much a rout.
Will that be the case in PA with O vs. Mc? I’m thinking it might.
Obama will lose PA in my opinion. He hasn’t won the ethnic, Union blue-collar vote in heavily Democratic areas like Philly/Pittsburgh/Scranton/Erie. McCain looks like he may well pick up some of those Dems while solidifying his base in the heavily Republican rural areas. Clemenza informs me that some the moderately Republican suburbs of Philly will likely go McCain.
With Obama’s base not very broad to begin with and still eroding, and McCain having an energized base and picking up some independents and Democrats, I don’t realistically see Obama winning PA.