Obama will lose PA in my opinion. He hasn’t won the ethnic, Union blue-collar vote in heavily Democratic areas like Philly/Pittsburgh/Scranton/Erie. McCain looks like he may well pick up some of those Dems while solidifying his base in the heavily Republican rural areas. Clemenza informs me that some the moderately Republican suburbs of Philly will likely go McCain.
With Obama’s base not very broad to begin with and still eroding, and McCain having an energized base and picking up some independents and Democrats, I don’t realistically see Obama winning PA.
Re: Phila. suburbs. I believe that Mc will pick up the Arlen Specter voters.
I agree. I think that Obama will really only have strength in Philadelphia proper, and may even have some trouble getting a lot of votes in the NE part of the city. He will most likely not do well in normally Dem areas like Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Johnstown, and Erie. And though he may still possibly win it, I suspect he will do much poorer in Pittsburgh than Dems usually do.