Posted on 09/11/2008 9:57:56 PM PDT by comebacknewt
Florida: McCain +8
Ohio: McCain +1
Michigan: McCain +1
Colorado: Obama +3
Nevada: McCain +1
Georgia: McCain +18
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The polls looked shakey when we saw the 77 number for Obama’s black support.
But.
The black numbers don’t add to 100. It’s not 77%. It’s higher as a percent of those with an opinion.
And the other issue that CAN be quietly in play is black women. Palin may have peeled off 2-3% of black women.
Although I would much enjoy seeing McCain campaign in Detroit and Philly, it’s probably a total waste of time and resources - particularly in this “historic” election. Obama will probably get more than the usual 90% black vote.
The sound bite doesn’t back the media’s lie at all. Nothing to see here. I think Palin did a fine job. There is no ammunition to set off. Just brief firecrackers from the media, but no fuel.
>>
How can we be +1 in Michigan and -3 in Colorado?
I’m pretty sure McCain will do better in Colorado than Michigan come election night.
>>
Time passes. The states don’t maintain their demographics.
Colorado has changed. We have to respond to this. Hispanics are the fastest growing portion of the electorate.
The Electorate. Not illegals. The Electorate. They are children of illegals, natural born citizens of the US and grown up to voting age. No, it doesn’t matter if anchor baby rants follow. There is no way in hell citizenship will EVER be removed from someone even if the most stringent anchor baby law imaginable were passed.
These citizens are real and they are outgrowing all other groups. We had better find conservative issues that matter to them.
I’m writing Colorado off. Most of the votes there come from Denver and leftists dominate that town now. Colorado has quickly become a blue ststae. McCain will have better luck trying to pick of Wisconsin (Bush lost there in 200 and 2004 by less than 1%).
Nice analysis.
PA may be this election’s OH and FL and the rats will lie, cheat and steal to win it, so if McCain can take PA, it’s over for Obomba.
This one will be decided early in the evening if PA goes for McCain.
So here’s what the plethora of recent polling gives us since the GOP convention:
Alaska
Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 64, Obama 33
McCain +31
Alabama
AEA/Capital Survey 9/11
McCain 55, Obama 35
McCain +20
Colorado
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
Obama 49, McCain 46
Obama +3
PPP (D) 9/11
Obama 47, McCain 46
Obama +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
Obama 49, McCain 46
Obama +3
Florida
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 42
McCain +8
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
McCain 48, Obama 48
Tie
Quinnipiac 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 43
McCain +7
PPP (D) 9/9
McCain 50, Obama 45
McCain +5
Georgia
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 56, Obama 38
McCain +18
Strategic Vision (R) 9/11
McCain 52, Obama 39
McCain +13
Idaho
Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 68, Obama 29
McCain +39
Maine
Research 2000 9/11
Obama 52, McCain 38
Obama +14
Maryland
Gonzales Res. 9/9
Obama 52, McCain 38
Obama +14
Michigan
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
Obama 44, McCain 45
McCain +1
CNN/Time 9/11
Obama 49, McCain 45
Obama +4
Rasmussen 9/11
Obama 51, McCain 46
Obama +5
Strategic Vision (R) 9/9
Obama 45, McCain 44
Obama +1
PPP (D) 9/8
Obama 47, McCain 46
Obama +1
Mississippi
Research 2000 9/11
McCain 55, Obama 37
McCain +18
Missouri
CNN/Time 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 45
McCain +5
Montana
Rasmussen 9/10
McCain 53, Obama 42
McCain +11
Nevada
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 46, Obama 45
McCain +1
New Hampshire
CNN/Time 9/11
Obama 51, McCain 45
Obama +6
New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson 9/10
Obama 47, McCain 41
Obama +6
New Mexico
Rasmussen 9/11
Obama 47, McCain 49
McCain +2
North Carolina
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 9/11
McCain 47, Obama 44
McCain +3
PPP (D) 9/10
McCain 48, Obama 44
McCain +4
SurveyUSA 9/10
McCain 58, Obama 38
McCain +20
North Dakota
Rasmussen 9/10
McCain 55, Obama 41
McCain +14
Ohio
Quinnipiac 9/11
McCain 44, Obama 49
Obama +5
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 48, Obama 47
McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 9/11
McCain 48, Obama 44
McCain +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
McCain 51, Obama 44
McCain +7
Oklahoma
SurveyUSA 9/9
McCain 65, Obama 32
McCain +33
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac 9/11
Obama 48, McCain 45
Obama +3
Strategic Vision (R) 9/10
Obama 47, McCain 45
Obama +2
Virginia
CNN/Time 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 46
McCain +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
McCain 49, Obama 47
McCain +2
SurveyUSA 9/9
McCain 49, Obama 47
McCain +2
Washington
SurveyUSA 9/9
Obama 49, McCain 45
Obama +4
West Virginia
MBE 9/10
McCain 44, Obama 39
McCain +5
Wisconsin
Strategic Vision (R) 9/9
Obama 46, McCain 43
Obama +3
Wyoming
Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 58, Obama 39
McCain +19
Of the states in play going into the conventions, here’s what’s happened (sorted in their order bluest to reddest as they were in May 2008):
10 Minnesota - Pawlenty not chosen, PPP polling in CO suggests little intrastate convention bounce for Ds, likely little then for Rs in MN, is probably no closer than O+5 and is at the edge of being in play.
11 Washington - Alaska connection popped McCain in Eastern Red Washington. The state is now at O+4, on GOP radar but not a tipper state.
4 Maine - No indications that Maine has closed. McCain was thought to be at the edge of play in early 2008, now solid Obama.
3 Delaware - Biden pick sends DE off the screen. Not that it was weighing in much before.
7 Oregon - Washington +4, makes needed polling in OR interesting, if WA is at O+4, then OR would be at O+2-3%.
10 Wisconsin - Closed to O+3, skating at the edge of coming into play. But for me MI flips before WI, maybe even PA before WI.
15 New Jersey - NJ toys with GOP optimists but its really out of reach, and not a tipper. GOP optimists should look at MI, PA, WI, MN, NH, OR and WA, probably IA before NJ. Hell if NJ goes, the Big Kahuna CA would be in play at roughly 3 points behind NJ.
7 Iowa - Ethanol ... game over. I don’t expect to see it move below O+5 if we get a poll soon. MN will flip before IA.
21 Pennsylvania - Weird result from Quinnipiac, with OH+5 and PA+3. AA vote out of Philly is going to be big. O’s insult to rural PA hurts. Looks like the GOP is going to spend money here, but O’s got 65 field offices open, wow!
4 New Hampshire - Weak post GOP Convention number tells me NH is following ME out of play. If McCain hadgone with a pro-choicer like Ridge or even a Purple Shocker Play with Olympia Snowe. But with Palin New England will go solid Blue.
5 New Mexico - O’s weak Hispanic crosstabs in the Ras poll should have O peeps concerned BUT CO PPP Hispanic crosstabs don’t match. Something’s not right. Until we see other evidence of Hispanics moving toward McCain with Bush levels of support, we should assume NM is still O’s to lose.
17 Michigan - Lots of troubles here for O, with kooky D-Town Mayor and unpopular D Gov. Plus Palin might as well be from the UP as Alaska. Lots of Hockey Moms. In my mind MI is the most vulnerable Kerry and at 17EV, it offsets CO + IA’s 16
9 Colorado - The leading Tipper. As a CO homey, I want CO to go Red, but my brain thinks its O here by a nose. McCain got drubbed by Romney. My wife and I were the only McCain votes in our caucus. I buy the Palin works where Hillary and Huckabee were strong theory. O crushed Hill and Huck got little run in Colorado. CO may stay the #1 tipper into Nov. 538.com has it tipping 45%.
20 Ohio - Quinnipiac ruined my day with the O+5, three other polls brought me out of depression. McCain should carry OH by 1-2%, but having 20EV’s this exposed makes me VERY nervous. But at least the O peeps need to be worring about MI too.
5 Nevada - Yucca Mountain plus libertarians plus housing in LV. Lots going on here. Yucca is being run into the ground by O. I would like to see NV at M+3-4, which would hold us in the light red assuming Nate’s estimate of 2 points of M bounce left to fade is correct.
13 Virginia - Three polls have it just under M+3. Nate’s analysis says 2 points come off M from the bounce. Looks like VA is going to be close and creates new path’s for O is the Western Hispancs walk in NM and CO and/or the hockey moms in MI flip.
3 Montana - Palin sealed the deal. Its out of play.
11 Missouri - I expected a bigger Palin pop here than we got. M+5 isn’t impressive. MO is not a red, its a purple.
11 Indiana - No new polling but I expect it to be in M+7-10 territory. Hell if the Hispanics are moving McCain and WA #’s hold south through eastern CA, Cali might well be under 10 right now. For O optminists, IN is a reach and not a tipper.
27 Florida - I think FL is drifting away from O. 4 polls average M+5, that’s one point off NJ going the other way. There’s enough Red Florida to offset purple Florida which may be drfiting back and forth and also Blue SE Florida
3 North Dakota - O optimists want to believe but the reality is that ND like MT are heading towards Bush 04 numbers. ND at M+14 is a bigger reach for O than Cali is for M. The game isn’t here.
15 North Carolina - The SurveyUSA M+20 isn’t supported by anything else, and appears to be an outlyer. They clearly got that one botched up. NC should be JUST off VA. If VA is M+2.7, then NC is M+3-4. The other NC polling agrees. With VA, NC offers a Plan C for Obama if, the West falls away and MI collapses. Since I doubt both will befall O, I don’t think his path to victory will require both VA and NC. But it might need one of them.
3 South Dakota - SD is about 3-5 points more blue than ND, if NC is at M+14, then SD is off the table at M+9-11
3 Alaska - Palin, done.
5 West Virginia - Interesting M+5 number from a local firm got attention. We need a major to come in a verify. Kind of hard to understand what’s happening here if M is strengthening in PA and OH as well as the red South. Could come back into the game by month end.
BTW, PA is “in play” as it is within the MOE with Obama at +3
Oh no! That repulsive b**** Gwen Ifill is going to go after Palin with a meat ax! Sarah will need to prepare more for her than she will for ol’ Plugs.
Yeah, but the mayor of detroit is in jail, while the governor of Michigan is running businesses out of the state.
Gwen Ifill is a big Obama supporter. It would be like Sean Hannity moderating the debate.
Who agreed to this?
Michigan could put this away.
The trend is our friend:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count_no_toss_ups.html
Technically, but it becomes a bit of a long shot.
I think Ohio/Penn/Michigan, 2 out of 3, will decide this election. McCain can win if he loses 2, but he needs to win Colorado and Nevada then.
I am a bit surprised that NV is so close too and for that matter Ohio. But this is the kind of movement we want to see. We want McCain-Palin to take all the Bush states from 2004 plus PA, MI, WI and MN. Heck you could throw in NH too.
BTW, a poll release earlier today of NM had McCain-Palin up there now too.
I would think with this California might be close now.
Any subgroup is hard to measure. If you sample 500 voters then maybe 50 are black. Your sampling error can be quite high.
The thought in 2004 was that the marriage issue on the ballot brought out lots of traditional values black voters in Ohio.
This Nation Review essay:
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/kirsanow200501100742.asp
says, “Yet President Bush’s percentage of the black vote in Ohio increased from 9 percent in 2000 to 16 percent in 2004. The total number of black votes cast for the president in Ohio increased by more than 100 percent.”
McCain’s approval rating in Colorado is 61%. I think we take Colorado. Barry is sinking in Wisconsin, his lead is down from 11 to 3.
Last poll out of Washington is Obama +4. That means that Oregon has to be closer than that, maybe Obama +2 or something.
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