BUt the refineries are all to the east.
Surge is going to be by far the biggest impact with Ike. It would be better for the eye to track over the refineries to the east of the Galveston Bay, with the main body of surge NOT going into the bay, than for Ike to strike west of Galveston Bay and push all that surge up into the entire region surrounding the bay, which is shaped like a funnel.