Hurricane Ike Live Thread Part II

NOAA/NHC ^ | 10 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Texas began issuing mandatory and voluntary evacuations as Hurricane Ike continued to strengthen and slowly moved toward an uncertain landfall destination in the western Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Rick Perry issued a disaster declaration in advance of the storm. Louisiana Governor Jindal released several hundred buses to Texas for evacuation assistance.

Reports from Cuba indicate widespread damage from Hurricane Ike, which raked the length of the island nation. The U.S. State Department again offered Cuba humanitarian assistance after a previous offer was declined by the Cuban government.

The stock market Wednesday rose as investors bought oil stocks and and oill futures fell.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[Tuxedo]

Not many folks on TWC mentioning the track past few hours seems to be due WEST. It seems south of the forecast track now. May still turn, but perhaps not as soon as they forecast now?

[SeaHawkFan]

What town do you live in?

[lonestar]

I’m north of Beaumont-—they just announced a mandatory evac for Jasper, Newton and tyler counties. I think they’re expecting another Rita.

[NautiNurse]

This storm is not at all like Alicia, which formed relatively quickly. Ike has been pushing water toward TX and will continue to do so. Expect 20ft, plus waves and tide.

Get a Sharpie permanent marker, and write your vital info on your chest.

[dandelion]

Excellent news - I hope Dog Gone gets all his preps done before it makes landfall...

We’re trying to put together community plans here in the event that Ike comes in stronger than anticipated. The Church may become a shelter if needed, and since we’re such a small community, it’s going to be a little difficult to get help out here - so we’ll have to help ourselves.

If we have Cat I winds here (North Central Texas, 60 m east of Waco) then we will have several families who will have damaged homes. Fortunately, our neighbors really look out for each other.

I keep praying that Ike stays a Cat 2 or less at landfall!

[Ingtar]

Please do not look at the only the wind speed. That is the fatal mistake a lot of people in Mississippi made with Katrina. Most of the damage this one does will be storm surge and your location is not high enough to protect you from the predicted surge. Sure, they may be wrong. Is it something to gamble lives on?

[Ingtar]

Please do not look at the only the wind speed. That is the fatal mistake a lot of people in Mississippi made with Katrina. Most of the damage this one does will be storm surge and your location is not high enough to protect you from the predicted surge. Sure, they may be wrong. Is it something to gamble lives on?

[NautiNurse]

Safe travels. Please check in when you can. Take care.

[eastforker]

The only blessing I have seen so far is the storm is forcasted to move out very fast after landfall. It is forcasted to be in Illinois sunday afternoon.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for your local update. Sounds like you have good support systems in your community. Please check in when you can.

[lonestar]

I wonder if there are any organized communities in ILL.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Get a Sharpie permanent marker, and write your vital info on your chest.

Yeah, those folks who partied thru the big one in Mississippi didn't do that. Most inconsiderate.

[luckystarmom]

I’m in California, but I drove from Dallas to A&M (college) in Alicia.

I’ve read they cancelled classes at A&M. Alicia hit before the fall semester, so classes didn’t need to be cancelled.

You think this one will be like Alicia?

I think Rita was much worse then Alicia.

[luckystarmom]

I have family in Beaumont and Woodville. Rita was bad for them. They went without power for many weeks in Woodville.

[STARWISE]

I have a terrible time with the giant avocados during a tropical storm.

~~~

When they fly in hurricane winds, wow .. they’re
such dangerous missiles.

[hobson]

Houston

[STARWISE]

Good that you’re leaving.
God bless you and your
dear Mom.

[arkady_renko]

OK jpsb and anyone else feeling invincible, this is the post where I make an idiot out of myself. (Again.) I don't care. Four days ago Ike was on the east side of Cuba. I looked at it and sort instinctively knew where it was headed. The 'X' in this picture represents where I thought it would go:

Now, I'm no weather genius, not a psychic, not a prophet. Maybe just a lucky guess. I posted the pic on here on the 9th. I would really like to be wrong on the little red X. I have nothing invested in being right and would gladly be a fool. This is one case where I'd love to be a complete idiot and a laughingstock.

You need to clear out if you can. Just as I saw the track in my pea brain, I got the idea there would be 500-600 fatalities. Boy, I really hope everyone looks back at this post in a few days and says, "What an idiot, Renko. No fatalities at all! Not even a dog." I'll relish being the idiot again. It would be delicious to be wrong.

So, let me be the idiot for anyone on the fence thinking of leaving. Let me nudge you into your car and out the driveway. If in two days it was all hype and Ike is a bust, come back here and make fun of me. I'll provide a picture of me you that you can put lipstick on! At least you'll be alive and I won't have any regrets.

This is a big storm pushing a bunch of water. Water weighs around 8 pounds per gallon. The surge will crush a house - doesn't matter if it is one story or two. Get away from Galveston and low lying areas and come back in a few days and make fun of Arkady Renko. I'll love it.

May God bless and give everyone in the path wisdom.

[STARWISE]

Oh my ... gorgeous!
One of the things I miss most
are those huge, smooth-skinned
avocados. We get black, gator-
skinned peach-sized junk in IL.

Lucky girl. I had no idea they
would grow in the T’pa Bay, FL
area. How did you accomplish that?

[lonestar]

Where are you?

They're here! I'm outta here!