Hurricane Ike Live Thread Part II

NOAA/NHC ^ | 10 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[nwctwx]

The pressure drops recently are significant. I think we see wind speeds jump at least to mod cat 3 by sunrise.

[NautiNurse]

At least a Cat 3...

What is the science behind the huge hurricane wind field?

[nwctwx]

I’m not sure what the exact science is and have not seen it discussed too much. I know many were in ‘awe’ of Katrina/Rita type storms because there have not been a lot of them during times with technology to track them like we have now. Ike is threatening to be, and I think already is becoming, of that stature. It’s got to be partly very ideal upper level environments — these storms have incredible outflow that stretches thousands of miles.

[arkady_renko]

Will fill the Gulf right now if moved west.

A_R

[NautiNurse]

Thanks. I can't remember ever seeing a storm with the same strength sustained winds 90 miles out as within the inner eyewall. That, and the very strong weather still affecting Eastern Cuba (in the graphic posted above). I am awestruck.

I appreciate your thoughts.

[nwctwx]

It’s a very bad situation I think, with hurricane force winds so expansive and pressures so low there is likely to be an extra large surge (in addition to possibly more significant winds than Katrina brought).

[txhurl]

We just have to think King Ranch King Ranch King Ranch...

[SomeCallMeTim]

It’s times like this, when I wish I had continued on my intended career path: Metereology, and work for the NWS. Because, since I was 5 years old... I believed I was better at predicting these storms than the “experts” were.

This storm is moving NORTHWEST! I understand all the predictive patterns.. but, sometimes.. these babies get SO BIG, they go where they want. At least, until they lose momentum.

IMHO, the NWS is negligent in not warning people in Western Louisiana that THEY could be hit by this storm.... as early as Friday. If this thing DOESN’T TURN westward... they’re going to get nailed.

Right now.. I’d say, Houston/Galveston is the most likely landfall point. And, what I’ve been predicting on these boards for a couple of years now.... may be about to happen. That is: >$5 BILLION in damage in Clear Lake/Houston/Galveston/Freeport.

I sure hope not.. cause, that will always be HOME for me. But, I think they’re number is finally up.

We can hope for dry air... cooler water..... landfall in a less populous area... but, none of that seems likely to me at this point.

It’s here.. and, it’s bad.

[SomeCallMeTim]

It’s times like this, when I wish I had continued on my intended career path: Metereology, and work for the NWS. Because, since I was 5 years old... I believed I was better at predicting these storms than the “experts” were.

This storm is moving NORTHWEST! I understand all the predictive patterns.. but, sometimes.. these babies get SO BIG, they go where they want. At least, until they lose momentum.

IMHO, the NWS is negligent in not warning people in Western Louisiana that THEY could be hit by this storm.... as early as Friday. If this thing DOESN’T TURN westward... they’re going to get nailed.

Right now.. I’d say, Houston/Galveston is the most likely landfall point. And, what I’ve been predicting on these boards for a couple of years now.... may be about to happen. That is: >$5 BILLION in damage in Clear Lake/Houston/Galveston/Freeport.

I sure hope not.. cause, that will always be HOME for me. But, I think they’re number is finally up.

We can hope for dry air... cooler water..... landfall in a less populous area... but, none of that seems likely to me at this point.

It’s here.. and, it’s bad.

[CindyDawg]

Should be turn off the fans or leave them on to draw Ike in?

[arkady_renko]

The Storm Prediction Center now has a tab for it under the Mesoscale Analysis page. Here is an image of the pressure and wind chart:

Probably a few hours old, but shows how steep the pressure drop off is. If anyone wants to check in at the SPC it is at www.spc.noaa.gov/

That will be the best site to keep an eye out for tornadic activity in the next few days.

[lainie]

I will read that info on Jeff Masters, thanks for the link!

Speaking of him, he said this at his last update: "Ike has a good chance of becoming the most destructive hurricane in Texas history--though not the most powerful."

I also wondered if you saw the photo from inside Ike's eye posted there yesterday. What a pic.. the side looks like an icy mountain of evil cotton candy.

[NautiNurse]

Cameron County LA is under a Hurricane Watch. The entire Louisiana coast to the mouth of the Mississippi is under a Tropical Storm Warning and most of the LA Coastal counties are under Flood Warnings until further notice.

[nwctwx]

As the track is now Houston/Galveston will see some significant problems. The GFDL, which the NHC typically likes, has had several runs in a row that would probably be disastrous. NHC put watches up pretty early and are bullish with predicting a category 4 at landfall, so hopefully warnings to get away from the coast will be listened to.

[txhurl]

I think we should drop five billion metric tons of whatever that stuff is in baby diapers into Ike.

:(

[dougherty]

Yep, I know people in Louisiana that now believe they are in the clear. Not me, my suitcases are packed! I’m here in Louisiana and have family from Houston to Corpus Christie, just wish Ike would turn toward Mexico or something.

[sweet_diane]

Good idea! Hubby was thinking about a million ‘Sham Wow’s. lol

[potlatch]

[Hurricane Carla (1961) was a Cat 5 storm.]

Yes I know, I lived through it and the eye passed directly over Victoria, which is 25 miles by road to Pt. Lavaca. Closer as the crow flies.

I have a Hurricane Carla book. Orange and Black soft cover like the Texas City Stingarees.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/research/hurrhistory/Carla/carla.html

Believe this is the same site you quoted from.

[arkady_renko]

How to read the 'vanes' on the windspeed/directional symbols in case anyone is interested.

[lonestar]

Thank you! LOL