Posted on 09/10/2008 1:48:49 PM PDT by NewMediaFan
Ten days after the emergence of Sarah Palin on the national stage, Barack Obama is holding his own in two key states but trailing John McCain in two others, according to a new TIME/CNN poll, conducted by Opinion Research Corp, of four swing states out today.
In New Hampshire and Michigan, both states won by John Kerry in 2004, Obama is leading McCain 51% to 45% and 49% to 45% respectively. When Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader are added in Obama's lead narrows in Michigan to 45% to 42% and just slightly in New Hampshire, 48% to 43%.
The news for McCain is better in Virginia and Missouri, both states won by President George W. Bush in 2004, where the Republican nominee leads Obama 50% to 46% and 50% to 45% respectively. With third party candidates added in, McCain's lead in Virginia expands to 49% to 43%, though it narrows slightly in Missouri, 48% to Obama's 44%.
(Excerpt) Read more at time.com ...
shore up NV NM and CO
take OH just like 2004
and land MI and the election is ours
McCain being at the 50% mark in both Virginia and Missouri is huge. Michigan being a three point race with Obama at 45% is even better.
If we can flip Michigan, then we don't need Colorado or Nevada. Better yet, lets take them all!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
McCain is going to win NH, a state where he performed well and Obama performed poorly in the primaries. And it won’t surprise me if he takes MI as well.
The last Time/CNN poll I saw from only a few days ago had 40 Democrats and 31 percent Republicans, and McCain still led by two among likely voters. Trust Gallup, kinda sorta trust Rasmussen as a worst case scenario, and pretty much ignore any poll sponsered by any media organization already in the tank for Obama.
“All four polls of registered voters”
That’s the problem with these polls. Registered voters don’t always go to vote. The polls I like the best are the ones among “likely voters”. Most of the registered voters who don’t show up are democrats anyway....lol
Since when is Virginia a swing state?
CNN/Time, the DNC poll spammers.
Very true. Given that, and given they are registered voter polls, and you could probably shift each one 3-5% toward McCain, making MO and VA solid for McCain, and MI and NH near toss-up states.
Rasmussen states that (but figures apparently for members only) McCain has flipped NM. BHO was leading by 4% before the conventions (13% according to CNN), now McCain is leading.
Since the media thinks they have swung the state with “Macaca smear.”
He leads in NH. That’s a big lot of electoral votes.
If true that McCain is actually leading in NM, Obama is in trouble because McCain can lose either VA or CO and still win. This will be another state Obama is going to need to spend time and money in that he shouldn't have needed to. Keep at it McCain-Palin!
"For the first time all year, John McCain has topped Barack Obama in a New Mexico poll. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47%. Although the two-point lead is not statistically significant in a poll with a four-point margin of sampling error, it’s quite an improvement for McCain from August. At that time, Obama was ahead 48% to 44% (with leaners included). Since then, the Republican has gained ground among Hispanic voters and those not affiliated with either major party."
If you’re following the 2004 model then with Ohio McCain wouldn’t need Michigan.
Read here earlier today that N M has gone to the good side and away from the evil side.
i would like to see NH come home to the GOP as well
1. McCain needs to hold onto Ohio and Florida. He has the advantage there right now, but will need to work hard to hold on.
2. He will then need to take either one of Colorado or New Mexico to win. Although today there is a good poll out on New Mexico, I have doubts about whether he will end up taking that state. If it's close, look for him to lose the state due to fraud, which seems to be a serious problem in NM every election.
So it will likely all come down to Colorado. McCain doesn't seem to have gotten a big bounce there yet, and is trailing in the RCP average. I would say there needs to be a concerted conservative voter registration drive for the state and a decent grassroots push by Freepers and others now through November.
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