The "war warning" (I have read it) was so clear that Kimmel and Short should have been courtmartialed for not being better prepared. And they were. Esp. after a midget sub was sunk in the mouth of Pearl on Dec. 6, Kimmel should have had air patrols up 24/7, all guns manned, and half the ships' engines stoked and ready to go.
There was no map, anywhere, seen by any "attache" of Japanese naval forces east. I don't know how much clearer to make this. There were no Japanese ships "east" (as you and I understand the term) of Japan. They were northeast, emphasis on NORTH. Please stop being so ignorant and look at a damn map of the attack. The task force came from south of ALASKA; it attacked from the NORTH, not the West. This is indisputable, yet you keep acting like the Japanese sailed on a course straight to Pearl. They deliberately avoided the straight line.
The fact that you keep missing this point about the "two" carriers shows your shallow grasp of both the intel and the significance of the supposed "Dutch" observation. No one would have ever seen "two carriers." There were no "two carriers" operating anywhere EAST OR NORTH. There was the Kido Butai, which consisted of SIX carriers and a crapload of other ships including battleships. No one would ever, ever mistake this for "two carriers." Moreover, no one in Washington ever, ever reported seeing "two carriers" . . . except heading SOUTH to Singapore.
So what happened was this: the attache clearly saw the Singapore strike force, which may have initially started east then turned south, but what he saw was definitely NOT Kido Butai. And no, one carrier wouldn't have scared anyone, especially when it was assumed (why do you have trouble with this) that EVERYONE thought ANY attack was heading south toward Singapore. No one thought ANY Japanese force would attack Pearl Harbor, let alone one or two carriers. It was just silly. Until shortly before the attack, we had THREE carriers in base. So 80 planes are going to attack a fleet at anchor which has 200 land-based planes PLUS 200 CARRIER PLANES available?
Do you understand that the odds Yamamoto faced were so staggering that his war games showed him losing 30% of a six-carrier force (i.e., he planned to lose over 100 planes in a total surprise attack that was overwhelming?) Are you understanding why no one would have taken two carriers seriously, especially aimed at Pearl Harbor???
As you put is, "Five days from Hawaii they would have been NORTH. Get it? NORTH.
I already explained why it is common practice NOT to go directly from point a to point b. The two carriers---if he saw them, and I think this is totally bogus, because you are relying on his recollections of reading a map that just "happened" to be lying around for a DUTCH ATTACHE to see (if you had been in the military, you'd know this in itself is beyond silly)---could have sailed north, south, east, or west then changed course for their final destination. But clearly whatever he "saw" isn't the Kido Butai.
And, no, "one message saying something was 'headed' to Pearl Harbor" was not actionable intelligence. In a situation where the intel officers would have been getting thousands of pieces of evidence, and virtually NONE of the other evidence supporting this, it would have been instantly trashcanned.
Victor is clearly a boob. Try reading Roberta Wohlstetter's famous work on pre-war PH intel. It might open your eyes. However, since I have three times suggested that you examine ANYTHING by Phil Jacobsen, a cryptanalyst who has actually broken these codes and can tell you how it's done---and since you clearly don't seem inclined to do so, then we are done. But I can tell you this: the entire community of cryptanalysts and military radio guys see such claims that this kind of intel came in and was ignored as a direct impugning of THEIR patriotism, heroism, and competence. And if I were you, I'd never make such charges to their faces!
1. The controversy isn’t settled: witness nine Congressional hearings.
2. Substantial circumstantial evidence suggests FDR knew Japanese were closing on Hawaii. FDR needed an attack to turn antiwar sentiment polled at 80%.
3. Whether or not FDR knew is irrelevant; like a Mafia don, one only needs to make his wishes know. The underlings do the dirty work; the don stays clean.
4. Secret documents released in 1995 included an Oct. 7, 1940 memo by Lt. Cmdr. A. H. McCollum that posited eight steps the U.S. could take to bait the Japanese to attack us (not necessarily at Pearl Harbor). All eight actions were executed.
5. British intelligence broke the Japanese Naval code JN-25 and shared it with us.
6. The codes were passed by Adm. Burnett to Washington, but denied all.
7. Over 16,000 Japanese naval messages were intercepted—not the last 400 miles.
8. FDR knew Japanese had studied Pearl Harbor defenses and equipment.
9. The Japan Fleet was observed making an easterly departure from Japan.
10. The Navy banned all merchant shipping from the North Pacific on Nov. 25, 1941.
11. Radio vector equipment in the Aleutians plotted it progress across the Pacific.
12. The Navy evacuated two carriers and newer ships from Pearl Harbor to Wake Is.
13. The Navy cancelled plans to send a third carrier from California to Hawaii.
14. Warnings of imminent attack were withheld from our Hawaiian command.
15. The U.S. denied that Japanese broke radio silence, and ordered all intercepted messages destroyed. Orders to destroy were found in New Zealand archives.
16. A naval historian testified in 1991 that US had received the messages.
17. Congress exonerated Kimmel and Short of dereliction of duty in 1995.
18. Clinton, while president, restored Kimmel and Short to their highest rank.
19. FDR, by his actions, may have saved lives by entering WWII earlier.
20. People have a hard time accepting duplicity, but democracies need crises to act.
By my count, Victor references Wohlstetter's 1962 book five times, in taking account of her arguments. His key point is that much more is known today, than was known when she wrote in 1962.
Clearly, you have not read Victor's book, and are making "straw man" arguments which do not apply to him.
And you are topping it off with a pile of insults which do nothing to improve the impression of your own intellect -- especially when mixed liberally with your own "boob-like" mistakes.
Really, you need to go back to school, and learn how to study before "shooting your mouth off."