Hurricane Ike Live Thread

NOAA/NHC ^ | 7 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.

Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data:

Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Western Gulf of Mexico

West Caribbean

Forecast Models

South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike

KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[CindyDawg]

I think it will go north of us too but my husband is in healthcare and they will probably have to evacuate because if it should turn ...I won’t go unless I know it’s coming though. Anyway..that’s why I’ve been kind of grumpy today. I have the staying pretty good but this is new for me. I’ve decided I don’t need to haul the kitchen sink but stuff like do I throw freezer stuff away or take a chance the lights will stay on and I won’t come back to a nasty mess. That kind of stuff. Woman worries:’)

[nwctwx]

long loop of cuban radar:
http://i38.tinypic.com/213m7is.gif

Ike’s looking like big trouble.

[Guenevere]

No hon that's not it.

It was jumping across the screen every few seconds....an animated hurricane Ike.

[NautiNurse]

Good to have you check in. Certainly, all the ingredients are in place for an ugly, major storm.

[sweet_diane]

I cleaned my moms fridge after Ivan and Katrina. Power at her house was out much longer for Ivan and it was a stinky mess, but fixable. After cleaning all the interior and drip pan we put bowls of baking soda and kitty litter in for a couple of days. No hint of odor. :)

Oh.. .and don't forget to dump your ice maker if you think you may be out of power for a while..that ice makes lots of water! Also, I've made several gal size freezer bags of filtered water (if need to drink it later) frozen in my freezer to help maintain cold for temp outages..it helps.

[blam]

How Strong Can a Hurricane Get?

"Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale has no upper bound, on paper. But in theory, winds from a powerful hurricane could blow the scale out of the water, scientists say. There is no such thing as a Category 6 storm, in part because once winds reach Category 5 status, it doesn't matter what you call it, it's really, really bad."

[nwctwx]

Ike is coming off Cuba much better looking (circulation wise) than Gustav did. The eyewall has rebuilt itself pretty quickly over the last several hours.

[NautiNurse]

A tightly packed freezer undisturbed will keep perishables cool around three days. If there is a lot of free air space, best to fill space with ice blocks. After three days, a block party grillin' feast may be in order.

We tested a new coffin-sized cooler from Sam's Club a few of weeks ago. It held blocks of ice for 5+ days. Very cool. Nice advances in cooler insulation over the past few years.

[NautiNurse]

I've made several gal size freezer bags of filtered water (if need to drink it later) frozen in my freezer to help maintain cold for temp outages

Excellent idea!

[NautiNurse]

Ouch. That is fodder for someone's vivid nightmares tonight. Here's more:

The scale was designed to measure the amount of damage
inflicted by winds, and beyond 156 mph, the damage
begins to look about the same...

[NautiNurse]

Once Ike clears Cuba, not much to prevent intensification.

[AGreatPer]

I am shocked the MSM gets so few reports directly out of Cuba. That place has to be hit hard with a 3/4 hitting their main population areas.

[Elle Bee]

we're taking some pretty steady wind and rain here in Key West

I'm sorry to say that it looks like Ike is slowing up over the warmest water in the gulf

.

[comps4spice]

Central Texas is.

[NautiNurse]

I’m surprised nobody called me on my distance error in the last update. Ike was 145 km/95 miles from Havana. I mistakenly said 145 miles. Tsk, tsk.

[rollo tomasi]

Worried about Ike slowing down and that trough picking it up making a more North/East impact.

From the 02000 update:

The
official forecast is adjusted northward on days four and five...but
all of the better dynamical models are even farther to the right.

[Caramelgal]

…it doesn't matter what you call it, it's really, really bad."

LOL! That sort of reminds me of the Blizzard of ’83 here in MD. The night before the storm, the local forecast called for a little “light” snow, “a very light dusting” in the AM.

When I left for work at 5:00 AM the next morning, it was indeed snowing lightly but bitterly cold and eerily quiet and still. From the time I left my house to the time I got to work 15 minutes later, there was already a pretty big “light dusting” and it kept coming.

When I got the convince store I managed, I went about my usual routine and then turned on the radio. The local meteorologist had just updated the forecast to say 1 to 2 inches – but there was already about 1 1/2 inches on the ground and it kept coming. An hour later the forecast was updated to 2 to 4 inches, then 4 to 6 and then 6 to 8, and on and on all morning long and the snow kept coming heavier and heavier with each passing hour and it kept piling up. Sometime after noon, a very shaken sounding weatherman actually said “We don’t really know how much we’re going to get, but it’s going to be a whole lot! This is really bad!” Then all Hell broke loose. Phone lines were jammed. Schools and businesses were closing all over the place, the State Police was telling people to stay off the roads so they could rescue already stranded motorists, hospitals were making announcements for 4-wheel help transporting patients and staff and my little store was inundated with panicked people and I didn’t have a single loaf of bread or container of milk or much else of anything left on the shelves.

Twenty four hours later with over 22 inches and much bigger drifts and a night spend stranded at my store after my car got snowed in, and witnessing during the height of the storm, snow coming down at more than an inch an hour with howling, near hurricane force winds and thunder and lightening, power flickering on and off all night - all I could think was “light dusting my a$$!”

[NautiNurse]

Worth repeating, due to the slower forward speed and model trending pattern:

Ike is now expected to recurve around the periphery of the
subtropical ridge near the end of the forecast period. The
official forecast is adjusted northward on days four and
five...but all of the better dynamical models are even farther
to the right.

[eastforker]

I see the GFDL is calling for a cat4, waiting for the new models, they are taking forever tonight.

[Elle Bee]

I think you have long over earned the occasional inadvertent vicissitude and shame on anyone who call you on such minutia

Rather .... thank you again for your great body of work .