I think Gallup has it now at 50 to 43
I don’t feel like checking...
Gallup had it 49-43 yesterday, I expect it to get to 50 or 51 for Obama in today’s release.
In general, it does not look good. Hard to expect any sizable bump from the RNC now, and going into the debates with 4-5-6 point deficits seems a likely scenario.
Here is gallup’s analysis of its data:
The new polling shows that many of these disaffected Clinton voters have now returned to the loyal Democratic fold. The percentage of former Clinton voters who say they are certain to vote for Obama has now jumped to 65%. Although 12% of former Clinton voters persist in saying that they are going to vote for McCain, that’s down from 16%, and the percentage who are undecided has dropped in half.
Overall, support for Obama among this group has moved from 70% pre-convention to 81% post-convention.
To be sure, former Clinton supporters are still less enthusiastic than former Obama supporters in the post-convention poll. And, the fact that 12% still say they are going to vote for McCain is no doubt troubling to the Obama camp.
Gallup doesn’t have new numbers up so Obama’s still +6. However, they have an article saying the same thing that Rasmussen is saying—Obama’s support has increased over the past few days because the PUMAs are picking him over McCain.
Both Rasmussen and the CNN poll had internals saying that while men loooved the Palin pick (imagine that!) women weren’t so enamored. The numbers would seem to confirm that, at least so far.
Remember, the Pubbie convention is just getting started. We won’t know for sure if Palin helps or hurts for about a week.
Is this the first time Obama is over 50. Im just sick to my stomach.
The more I look at the polls recently, the less I worry. Even this poll - Obama’s highest lead among LVs - is only 6 with leaners.
And the past week - DNC Convention, speech, hurricane, 24/7 non-stop personal attacks on Palin - has been all Obama paydirt. Still, barely ahead.
Now we have - for the first time since Saddleback - a chance to focus some positives on McCain nationally. Palin has the advantage of not just low expectations - but beneath-the-earth low expectations, and can shock the world by giving a great performance.
Mind you, all of the “dirt” will be old news very fast - it always is. The media jumped the gun on this - attacked too personal and too early - and will pay the price for being too eager.
The tide turns at the end of this week. The worst has past, and the sunny days are ahead of us. It only gets better from here, and the Obama folks know it.
First, the Gallup numbers usually are not released until 1 the earliest. Second, McCain had a huge day on Friday. That has now dropped off the 3 day rolling average. That explains a lot of this. Also, holiday weekends for some reason are always lower for Republicans.
Calm down folks. First, sample is skewed slightly over holiday weekend. As most single people, “poor” etc..stay home versus families and folks that actually work travel. In old days no good pollster would poll over holidays and also recognize sample is troubled on Saturdays for many of the same reasons. Lets look at poll Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Then we will know where we stand. Also, all the good stuff and debates will matter..Still alot of Ammo. There are about 15% of electorate that will sway. Where they end up Nov. 4th is what counts..