Posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus
Obama is up by 6 in today's Rasmussen tracker, by 5 without leaners (48 - 43). It is obviuos that McCain had a very bad polling day yesterday, something like 42-53 daily sample or even worse.
Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.
“And they will be, in spades, both at the convention and in the next couple of months...”
If McCain/Palin can shout over the MSM din about her vetting process, her daughter’s baby bump, her Troopergate “scandal,” Hurricane Hanna and every and anything else they can dredge up. Remember, the independent women and PUMAs she needs to attract don’t get their news from FReep and Rush Limbaugh. They get their news from Andrea Mitchell and the View nags and Oprah.
McCain/Palin have to get the media’s attention before they can get their message out. So far, in the first 5 days of her rollout, Obama has gained 2 points in Rasmussen’s poll. The big announcement came directly after Obama’s speech in order to blunt it’s effect. It didn’t work.
Actually, that was a compliment. I think it’s pretty cool she gutted a moose. And, like you, I was a non-McCain voter until the Palin pick. Check my posting history. But my head and not my gonads are directing my thinking about Palin, and while I think she gives McCain a better shot than he would have had with a less appealing and conservative pick, there is no doubt whatsoever in my military mind that this is NOT how the McCain camp envisioned her big rollout.
I consider myself a rare voice of reason on these threads with regard to polling, although it is seldom, if ever, appreciated by those who see these things emotionally instead of analytically.
My problem with the moose statement was that it made it sound as if you thought that was “it” for her accomplishments. I see where you were coming from though, now.
My position is not all that emotional and can be found here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2073109/posts?page=37#37
But to be phiosophical for a moment, I firmly believe that ALL human decisions are emotional.
I’m a evangelical homeschool mom who believes in staying home and raising my children. I am on a homeschool list with many others who feel the same way. I am excited about Palin and have only heard my fellow homeschoolers praise the pick.
I’m finally excited about this election and I am excited that Governor Palin is on the ticket!
Ah, “Evangelical” that explains it. They shunned Mitt instead of praying for him to turn around ... no further explanation needed in why you support role reversal and pregnant teens when Mom is out working ... .
No need to reply further.
>>If McCain/Palin can shout over the MSM din about her vetting process, her daughter’s baby bump, her Troopergate “scandal,” Hurricane Hanna and every and anything else they can dredge up. Remember, the independent women and PUMAs she needs to attract don’t get their news from FReep and Rush Limbaugh. They get their news from Andrea Mitchell and the View nags and Oprah.<<
Points well taken. What heartens me is the Swiftboat Vets success and the fact that Dan Rather is no longer at CBS.
The MSM is even less powerful now. And they know it.
That is one of the rudest and most disrespectful posts I’ve actually seen on freerepublic, based on that last paragraph:
>>Ah, “Evangelical” that explains it. They shunned Mitt instead of praying for him to turn around ... no further explanation needed in why you support role reversal and pregnant teens when Mom is out working ... .<<
Who do you mean by “they”. Is it all of “them” or just some of “them”. How do you know the person you responded to was one of “them”?
The press has jumped the shark.
I kid you not!
From here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080902/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_politics_4
This gem among others:
“Obama advisers and surrogates have also linked Palin to conservative former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan. An Associated Press story from Alaska, dated July 17, 1999, states that Palin, then the mayor of the small town of Wasilla, was wearing a Buchanan button during a Buchanan visit to Alaska.”
I guess that’s it. The race is over.
This whole thing really IS getting comical.
You are flat-out wrong. You could easily follow the link above and learn just how wrong.
Hillary Clinton Forum - Palin Thread
The women posting at the above link are long-term Hillary supporters, some are moderators at that site. They are incensed at the Obama/media treatment of Hillary. From what I have read there, party affiliation is much less important than principles. We can all learn some things in this election cycle, and we can learn to work together with our former opponents for the good of the country. That is what Governor Palin did in the Alaska political arena, and 80+% of the people of Alaska approve of her (highest of all governors).
The former Hillary supporters are politically active, meaning they have effective personal and social networks they have put to good use in many previous election seasons. They have joined the Sen. McCain/Gov. Palin movement, and they are welcome and valuable assets to the campaign.
We have seen such vicious and desperate mud-slinging over the three-day holiday weekend simply because the Democrat and their media machine got blind-sided with this addition to the Republican ticket.
If you are putting any credence in the liberal polls showing Obama at 50%, you should look at where you are getting your news, look at their motives, and recognize the fact that this is a political campaign, and the vilest of political activities are to be expected. CNN and MSNBC, et.al., are simply extensions of the Obama campaign.
I am confident that the voters of America will overwhelming vote for Senator McCain and Governor Palin this November.
True, but let’s see how ALL the LIKELY-VOTER polls read, especially after the GOP convention, and into September.
I’d still be interested to see the make-up of the Rasmussen poll.
It’s going to dawn on the voters just how little experience Obama has....
That is one of the rudest and most disrespectful posts I’ve actually seen on freerepublic, based on that last paragraph:
>>Ah, “Evangelical” that explains it. They shunned Mitt instead of praying for him to turn around ... no further explanation needed in why you support role reversal and pregnant teens when Mom is out working ... .<<
Who do you mean by “they”. Is it all of “them” or just some of “them”. How do you know the person you responded to was one of “them”?
YOu know exactly what I mean by “they”.
As for the “rudest” LOL!
I found THOSE “evangelicals’ to be totally UNChristian.
Christians aren’t to shun Mormons. Or take out ads in the paper to threaten McCain not to pick him. I dare say that is NOT Christian. As for Dobson, I noticed he picked Mike AFTER Mitt withdrew ... . So much for Dobson. Now I hear Dobson is on board - Mr, TRADITIONAL FAMILY VALUES - LOL! I have little respect for Dobson ....
I will vote for McShame and Palin but that’s it.
No more GOP! They no longer represent traditional family values or roles in a family. I’m ONLY voting for McShame out of FEAR of the Obominatin.
Consider THIS reply as “rude” as the other reply.
>>Consider THIS reply as “rude” as the other reply.<<
My reply was not stereotyping. It was responding directly to the meaning of the words you typed.
There is a difference.
No difference and I’m not interested in seeing you split hairs to justify your idiotic remarks. Consider my other reply RUDE and DISREPECTFUL as well. It doesn’t bother me at all.
20 year ago, same time Obama was on coke and having gay sex in taxi’s
when you have La Raza speaking at the RNC, of course that will hurt.
I have checked the link and it is anecdotal evidence. Until it shows up in the good polls, I won’t believe it, your proclamations notwithstanding. I deal in facts, not wishful thinking.
I mostly look at Rasmussen, who called the 2004 and 2006 elections dead on. He has proven himself both accurate and an honest broker in the polling biz. He has Obama up by 5 right now and also says that recent movement toward Obama has been among Democrats, i.e., Hillary voters.
Some PUMAs are hardcore and will vote for McCain. I’ve never denied that, just like a few disgruntled conservatives will vote for Bob Barr. But so far there are no facts, as opposed to wishful thinking and anecdotal evidence, to support the notion that the McCain/Palin ticket will attract large numbers of Democrats or female independents.
We’ll have to wait and see.
The makeup of the poll is on his website.
>>No difference and I’m not interested in seeing you split hairs to justify your idiotic remarks. Consider my other reply RUDE and DISREPECTFUL as well. It doesn’t bother me at all.<<
Just wow!
K...
BTW, I’ll try to be less “idiotic” in the future. ;)
Nice talkin’ to ya. Well, not really...
Nice talkin’ to ya. Well, not really...
Ditto!
if it is Fox News Dynamics poll you can count on it being a push poll.
Also that dweeb who does the radio dial feeelign poling, the idiot who does not grasp Hillary is a socialist, could have had his hand in this fox polling.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.
Polls are used to "push" public opinion as much as, or more than they are used to "measure" current opinion.
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