Posted on 09/01/2008 6:43:44 AM PDT by gobucks
Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.
The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from the NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center, the last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.
But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.
In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.
The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.
But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. On was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.
Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.
This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.
Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.
Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.
What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again.
I’ve been looking at the sunspot number almost daily.
I’m honestly concerned about this situation, as I’ve written before.
The foolish who keep trying to maintain that the Sun has minimal effect on our weather may soon wish they hadn’t laughed at me and those like me.
Cycle 23 is now 147 months long, and still counting.
The few cycle 24 spots that have appeared thus far don’t change that count at all.
The previous 5 cycles averaged 125 months long.
This cycle IS longer than any we’ve had since 1950 - and length of cycle DOES correlate highly with the Earth’s temperature. Minimizing the importance of this solar cycle does a disservice to people.
i believe that the sun spots have a dramatically influence on our planet.
but i don’t have any expertise in this area.
I don’t think it is sunspots in themselves ... I suspect that they are indicators of magnetic and electric (and irradiance) influence of the sun. In addition, there are studies that have been done that suggest there is a higher correlation of Earth’s weather (climate) with solar cycle LENGTH than with the number of sunspots. Why? Who knows... the field is still developing.
Here’s a link to a good, accessible paper about the subject, though there are many others that are more technical, and flesh out the data:
http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html
thanks.
i understand that much—that the sunspots are indicators of magnetic and electric influence of the sun.
the most prominent feature is the interruptions that we have cyclically in our radio signals.
i especially liked the concluding phrase that human activities were not distinguishable in the data!
After a mild November, December through March will be cold and snowy, with temperatures about two degrees below normal, on average. The coldest temperatures will occur in early and mid-December, early and late January, and early and mid-February. The biggest snowstorm will occur in early January, with snow likely in time for Thanksgiving and frequent snowfall in December and mid-February.
WHAT A JOKE!!! They just described EVERY winter here.
For one thing, the last two weeks of January and the first two weeks of February are statistically the coldest weeks of the year anyway. That's a safe prediction if I ever heard one.
For another, big snowstorms are more likely in early winter when there's more moisture in the air to make snow.
I'd be more impressed if they were more specific.
I wonder if there were any other 30 day periods of solar inactivity. Making a big deal about it because it happened to coincide with our calendar doesn’t impress me when there could have been longer periods of solar inactivity that just didn’t happen to fall within a very specific time frame.
[Article Update, Sep 1 2008. After this story was published, the NOAA reversed their previous decision on a tiny speck seen Aug 21, which gives their version of the August data a half-point. Other observation centers such as Mount Wilson Observatory are still reporting a spotless month. So depending on which center you believe, August was a record for either a full century, or only 50 years.]
See, It’s still AGW as usual, nothing to see here, move along...
The prediction of below normal temperatures is the key.
Stevo also compares only 3 years of the current minimum to the total for previous minimums.
Note: this topic is from 9/01/2008. Thanks gobucks.
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