[SeekAndFind]

Folks, natiowide surveys don't help us gauge who is winning. Remember the year 2000 ? Al Gore won by over a million votes. Did that do him any good ?

So, national polls by Zogby, Rasmussen or Gallup do little to help us gauge the ultimate winner unless they break it down to the state by state level.

It is the ELECTORAL COLLEGE that determines the winner.

Keep a close eye on who will win the magic 270. Here's the relevant map and it does not look too good for McCain, national polls notwithstanding :

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[charles m]

But it’s good to use to take the wind out of Obama’s hype. Hype fuels more hype.

[devere]

This one looks a bit better:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

If the race stays close, whoever wins Colorado is the next President.

[comebacknewt]

Keep a close eye on who will win the magic 270. Here's the relevant map and it does not look too good for McCain, national polls notwithstanding

A. This Zogby poll is shocking. Good news, but also shocking.

B. The GOP pretty much always does better in the electoral college than their national polling numbers suggest. The main reason is because they clean up in the EV rich Southern states. If McCain wins the national vote (still far from a given at this point), there is about 99.99% certainty that he will be the next POTUS.

C. The map you site is misleading because there are a number of states that McCain is within a swing of a point or two of taking from the Obama column. He doesn't even need all of them to hit 270.

Bottom line is McCain still has quite a bit of work to do, but he is very much within striking distance of taking the whole thing.

[Bailee]

These look a little better
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

And from the Bush/Kerry race four years ago today.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug30.html

[krb]

Gore won by about half a million votes.

[nckerr]

Seek and Find...Are you a troll? I do the same “divide and conquer” over at DU. Try to sound like one thing but really trying to quietly dishearten the base...I am on to you!

[mbraynard]

On the other hand, the American electorate is homogeneous across state lines enough that 2000 appears to be the ONLY election since 1888 when the popular vote didn't jive with the electoral college vote. This makes sense, mathematically, because the electors are allocated based primarily on the population of the state.

Putting aside the question of the reliability of polls, it's always better to be up rather than down.