MAKE OR BREAK FOR BARACK

boblonsberry.com ^ | 08/28/08 | Bob Lonsberry

[shortstop]

DENVER – He better hit it big tonight.

As it turns out, the Barack Obama campaign could come down to one speech in one football stadium in one Rocky Mountain town.

For all the sunshine and smiles here in Denver, if we're being honest, it's do or die for the change you can believe in. John McCain has slapped one cheek, Hillary Clinton has slapped the other and if he's not careful, Barack Obama could be down for the count.

That sounds nuts, doesn't it? Every talking head in America has this guy walking on water. But the reality is he's walking on eggshells and it's been a very bad week for Barack Obama.

First, John McCain.

Gallup, for the first time, shows John McCain in the lead. On the second day of his convention, at the glorious celebration of all things Democrat, with the much ballyhooed vice-presidential nomination announced with wall-to-wall coverage, Barack Obama lost ground in the polls.

The Inevitable One became The Trailing One.

What you hear is America saying, “No thanks.”

Second, and more importantly, Hillary Clinton.

The last thing Barack Obama wants to be at his own convention is the second-best speaker, and after Hillary Clinton's speech on Tuesday night, it'll be a miracle if he comes up with anything better than a silver.

Stand back, here comes unrestrained praise.

I'm a Republican to the bone, and I'll vote for McCain if I have to come back from the dead to do it. But the Hillary Clinton speech at the Democratic National Convention was one of the best political speeches in either party for the last several years. I don't agree with her policies or her conclusions, but there was a substance and a charisma and a logic to her presentation that was – please don't strike me dead – presidential.

She did what she had to do. She laid out the agenda of the Democratic Party. Not nebulous con-game crap about hope and change and bridges and today is our day, but the things that Democrats really believe in and really want to see enacted.

And she did it with humor and inspiration and a delivery that was far better than that offered by anyone else to take the convention podium.

And you just know that as they listened, a great many Democrats in the hall and across the country wondered if they had made a mistake. That sick feeling in the pit of their stomach is known as buyer's remorse. The candidate who gave that talk Tuesday night could beat John McCain. And yet that candidate is not on the Democratic ticket. She was rejected.

And there is one standard against which Barack Obama will be measured – it is the standard of Hillary Clinton.

And she set the bar extraordinarily high.

The memory of her performance – of her strength – will be clear in the minds of Democrats as the dog-and-pony show plays out on Thursday night. And heaven help Barack if he falls short.

Because it will be hard to convince Republicans and independents if you can't convince Democrats.

It may turn out that the most compelling argument for Democrats to rally to Barack Obama comes from Hillary Clinton, not Barack Obama. She was right. It's not about personalities, it's about principles. They didn't campaign for her exactly, they campaigned for what they believe in.

Again, I don't share those beliefs. I think they are wrong-headed.

But a Democrat's got just as much right in America as anybody else. And a Democrat's got just as much right in America to influence our government as anybody else.

I disagree with their beliefs, but I respect the sincerity and passion of those beliefs.

And it would be a shame for those beliefs to get less than fair consideration because the Democratic Party picked the wrong candidate.

And we'll find out tonight if that happened.

The polls show that, at least for now, America thinks Barack Obama is the second-best candidate.

It'd be too bad if it thought he was also the second-best Democrat.

[kabar]

It may turn out that the most compelling argument for Democrats to rally to Barack Obama comes from Hillary Clinton, not Barack Obama. She was right. It's not about personalities, it's about principles. They didn't campaign for her exactly, they campaigned for what they believe in.

The problem for Obama is that he is campaigning on the basis of personality, not the issues. He defeated the vaunted Clinton machine with this strategy. Why change it now?

[101voodoo]

I think the extent of the bounce will not be known until Tuesday, 9/2 because the reliable tracking polls work on a 3 day rolling average and Tuesday will be the first reporting day after Hussein’s speech that will include all three of the days of sampling.

I certainly hope you are right but we actually won’t know until 9/2. Even then there will be confusion because we will have McCain announcing his VP.