Posted on 08/24/2008 5:33:40 PM PDT by kristinn
It’s a dead heat in the race for the White House. The first national poll conducted entirely after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and Republican rival John McCain is all tied up.
In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama with an equal amount supporting the Arizona senator.
“This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
“Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain,” adds Holland.
So what’s the difference now?
It may be supporters of Hillary Clinton, who still would prefer the Senator from New York as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.
Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters, registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee, are now backing Obama. That’s down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they’ll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.
“The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most although not all of the support McCain has gained in that time,” says Holland.
SNIP
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, with 1,023 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all voters. For registered Democrats, it is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and for Democrats who still support Clinton for the party's nomination, it is plus or minus 7.5 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
Street Thug and Butt Plug.
I haven’t stopped laughing since I read this.
They’re home but hungover, stoned, etc.
My guess is they have no idea how to handle the Wilder effect. Either McCain is kicking ass or he is DOA. This year totally screws up all the assumptions they put in to picking their samples. If they are over calculating the Wilder effect they will look like idiots if they are under calculating it McCain is in landslide territory. However, since they are not telling us we can only wait until Nov to find out.
” As General George S. Patton Jr. might say, “CRAP DON’T BOUNCE!!!” “ it rolls down hill.
If we're relying on them to defeat Obama, then I'm worried. The Obamessiah and his goons have two months to bring them back home. I'd prefer McCain just get the conservative base fired up. Okay, perhaps that's wishful thinking. (But maybe he could throw us a bone with a conservative VP!)
1023 national adults..move that to likely voters who pay taxes and seniors who remember Jimmy Carter and will actually vote move McCain to +5..
The sampling error is directly related to how many people were polled in each group. The more restrictions you put on a polling sample (i.e., Dems who still support Her Thighness), the smaller that group will be and the higher the MOE.
Serves the democrat party right for all the racist and sexist warfare they have promoted all these decades.
You reap what you sow.
Let the hillary backers wallow in a massive pity party. Exactly where they belong.
I can't wait until they tell us it's because everyone who doesn't vote for 'the one' is racist. Oh, I forgot, they already tried that!
The only poll I truly trust and is pretty accurate over past 8 years is survey usa..even when I don’t like results I trust their results. I used to trust gallup until they gave Kerry 2 extra points in their last poll. They had it right then decided to give kerry 2 points for some weird explanation..They were wrong of course
Dead Cat bounce. LOL!
Street Thug and Butt Plug.
Since it’s after Biden was named, it means the poll is entirely done on weekend.
“Adult Americans” were questioned, not registered voters. And the subset of registered voters who are also likely voters (as you pointed out) is even more likely to be pro-McCain. So this is doubly devastating for the Messia-uhhh. (Most of the polls I see are at least “registered voters” — the likely voters polls cost much more.)
Wait until tomorrow night when Michelle Obama tells us why we should hate America! She’s more arrogant than her husband.
I’m sure that will go over well.
And did I hear correctly that Chelsea Clinton is also going to speak? Should we rename this convention the Clinton Convention instead of the Democrat Convention?
““This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.”
Down 7, that’s not a dead cat bounce, that’s just a dead cat.
bttt
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