Russia's Georgia Gambit

The Surfing Conservative ^ | 8/15/2008 | Left Coast Republican

[Left Coast Republican]

The Kremlin's Georgia Gambit

Posted by thesurfingconservative at 8/12/2008 9:18 PM

There's been a "cease-fire" between Georgia and Russia for a couple of days now, but you sure wouldn't know it if you were out there. Russian army tanks continue to sweep through central Georgia and Russian soldiers—who Moscow has the audacity to call "peacekeepers"—are strolling through the Georgian port city of Poti, setting ablaze Georgian naval vessels. And, with an imperial arrogance that rivaled the old Soviet leadership, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told the international press that Georgia can "forget about" regaining control of the two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It has become apparent that Moscow plans to absorb these Georgian provinces de facto if not de jure.

At some point soon, there will be real cease-fire. Moscow appears to be just trying to run up the score right now. No matter the final terms of the cease-fire, it should be readily apparent that Moscow was the big winner in the conflict. The neo-authoritarian regime—it's hard to call the Russian government democratic when the opposition is intimidated from participating in a meaningful way in elections—in Moscow was not only able to beat down its former republic, but it effectively solidified control over the breakaway regions of Abhkazia and South Ossetia, and it regained its national pride by thumbing its nose at the West, which could only look on with embarrassed impotence as Russian tanks rumbled toward Tblisi. Even as the Russian military unabashedly flouts the terms of the cease-fire agreement reached a few days ago, all the United States and its allies can do is issue angry statements for Moscow to stop expanding its military control over Georgian territory—statements that the Kremlin blithely ignores...

[goldstategop]

The Russians can ignore the West because of two things: they hold the veto in the UN Security Council and most important, they have nuclear weapons. Nobody and I mean nobody - shoves The Bear around!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Southack]

The U.S. isn’t just standing by idly and isn’t just making statements.

Already President Bush has airlifted 2,000 Georgian troops on U.S. planes from Iraq into Georgia.

Already the U.S. has delivered aid to Georgia.

Already the U.S. has convinced the Ukraine to pressure Russia over its Black Sea fleet and rented port.

Already the U.S. has cancelled its joint U.S.-Russian naval exercises this month.

Already the U.S. and Poland have reached an anti-missile defensive shield agreement that is mightily opposed by Russia.

Wheels are in motion. Responses are on-going.

So FREAKING STOP PARROTING THE LIBERAL NEWS MEDIA MYTH THAT WE “can’t do anything” and “Aren’t doing anything” about Russia’s aggression in Georgia.

Do I make myself clear? Have I listed enough rebuttals of the liberal spin, or do I need more?

[microgood]

One thing is clear. The West will not be building pipelines from the Caspian Sea that bypass Russia anytime soon. And that is what Putin intended to accomplish with this action. Putin played everybody including Georgia.

[Sun]

“CEASE FIRE” and run for your life. Very sad over there.

[microgood]

Already the U.S. and Poland have reached an anti-missile defensive shield agreement that is mightily opposed by Russia.

People are citing this as a way to get back at Russia but if we are using this as a hammer aren't we proving Putin's point that these missles are directed at Russia and not Iran?

[hellbender]

It's not all liberal spin. 2000 Georgian troops are a joke. There are 2 high-quality neo-Soviet armored division running around Georgia, destroying the country's defensive infrastructure. Georgia has ceased to exist as a truly independent nation. Large chunks of its natural geographic extent are now permanently removed from its control, and Russian troops and their proxies are free to terrorize the rest of the country.

All we can and should be doing is massively building up the defensive capability of all the remaining border states, esp. Poland and Ukraine, and enlarging our own military, which is spread thin and tied down in the Middle East. We don't have the manpower and resources to fight Russia, Iran, and possibly N. Korea all at once.

There is nothing, in principle, to stop the Russians from repeating their Georgian game plan in places like the Baltic states, which are tiny and have large Russian minorities.

[Southack]

Utter rubbish.

Russia was eaten up during a decade of Afghanistan...eaten up again during a decade of war in Chechnya...and Georgia has a larger economy (and similar remote mountain topology) than either.

Georgia has lost no means of Defense that can’t be replaced by *better* armaments.

In contrast, the Russians can only draw down their forces in other regions so far (for an assault or occupation on parts of Georgia) without inviting even more groups/regions to break away.

Strong-arm tactics are a Kremlin legacy, but they only work to a point, and don’t work if Russia ever shows weakness.

In contrast, had Russia been using its new oil wealth to fund lucrative trade deals, their former client states would have been *volunteering* to rush back to become ex-Soviet Vassels again.

So Russia used the wrong tool.

This will cause them to extend their forces into a remote region, where newly armed Georgian uniformed military forces will bloody them and Georgian paramilitary forces will make Chechnya and Afghanistan terror tactics look like amatuer hour.

Further, Russia’s aggression will serve to end all serious European opposition to U.S. missile defenses in Czech and Poland.

It validates President Bush’s strategy of expanding NATO against Russia, as well.

Bush is now a visionary, accurately predicting the Russian future (e.g. Rusky-expert Rice as SecofState) and proactively having acted to expand NATO and deploy missile defenses against it...none of which “just happened overnight” but were in fact in motion for years.

[Southack]

"People are citing this as a way to get back at Russia but if we are using this as a hammer aren't we proving Putin's point that these missles are directed at Russia and not Iran?"

That makes as much sense as a mugger complaining that your bullet-proof vest might stop his bullets against you.

[brydic1]

And even more importantly, they have the power to make Europe freeze this winter. This power is almost overwhelming and can not be countered with their almost total dependence on Russian oil and natural gas.