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WHO WINS: The Empire Struggles Back (Russia)
Strategy Page ^ | 8/15/08

Posted on 08/15/2008 7:22:06 AM PDT by pabianice

August 15, 2008: The Russian empire is being rebuilt. The Russian people demand it. Russian politicians are using this popular attitude to placate the people, and distract them from the fact that Russia is turning into a dictatorship. And so Russia is pressuring its neighbors to do what they are told by Moscow. In support of this, the Russian government has re-established control over key industries, as well as all the major mass media.

While the 1917 revolution destroyed the ancient Russian monarchy and simultaneously rejected democracy and the market economy, the 1917 revolution didn’t work. The overbearing and inept czarist aristocracy eventually returned in the form of overbearing and inept Communist Party officials and state-appointed industrial managers. The second revolution in 1991 was less bloody than that of 1917, but the huge Communist bureaucracy was not dismissed, only reduced.

Unlike the 1917 revolution, 1991 one saw the dismemberment of the czarist empire, something even the 1917 Reds were not willing to tolerate. Territories that had been Russia’s for centuries, like Ukraine and Belarus, plus others that had only been conquered in the 19th century (Central Asia and the Caucasus), were suddenly independent once more.

But not completely free. The Russians called their new neighbors the “Near Abroad” and treated them more like prodigal children than sovereign nations. In the early 1990s, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was formed by Russia. The CIS was sort of a successor of the Soviet Union. But after he 1990s, the CIS began to fall apart. Some members, especially Armenia, Ukraine, Georgia and Turkmenistan, drifted away. Or at least tried to. Apparently you could join the CIS, but not leave it.

The New Russia of the 1990s faced serious economic and political problems internally, as well as unrest on its new borders with these new neighbors. Russia sought to solve all these problems to its advantage, Thus the Near Abroad nations are increasingly hostile to Russian interference. During all this, Russians grew increasingly nostalgic for the old empire. Russian politicians played on this by talking of rebuilding the empire.

There were other considerations. For over a thousand years, Russians have lived in fear of invasion. Thus it has always been popular to absorb or subdue neighbors, to provide a buffer zone between the core Russian (mainly Slavic) territories, and potential invaders. The Golden Age was the post World War II period, when Russia still had all the czarist conquests, while Eastern Europe, Mongolia and North Korea were run by communist governments that were basically satellites of Russia. Memory here has been selective. The empire was expensive, in terms of cash, diplomatic ill-will and poor public relations. But only the good things are now remembered, which is how nationalistic memories usually work.

Ironically, the Russian military industries were saved in the last decade by India and China. These two nations kept Russian weapons manufacturers alive with large orders. More importantly, the booming economies in China and India drove up the price of oil, of which Russia is a major exporter. The billions in oil wealth propped up the Russian economy and allowed the armed forces to be rebuilt. Now Russia talks openly of reclaiming its status as a superpower and dictating the fate of its neighbors. But Russia remains a second rate military power, with a second rate arms industry and a collection of very hostile, and fearful, neighbors.

The war in Georgia comes on the heels of threats (of violence) made to Ukraine. Before that, Russia cut off energy supplies to Ukraine to show who was really in charge. Russia makes more threats to the Baltic States and East European countries over membership in NATO and the construction of a U.S. anti-missile system. The bear is back in a fighting mood, and the world wonders how far this reassertion of empire will go.

Western Europe is paralyzed by fear of losing a quarter of its natural gas supplies. When Russia set up those gas pipelines during the Cold War, somber pledges were made that gas deliveries would never be used for political purposes. After seeing what happened to Ukraine, and other East European customers, no one can be sure anymore. After Georgia, no one can feel safe from Russian violence anymore either.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: coldwar2; energy; geopolitics; georgia

1 posted on 08/15/2008 7:22:06 AM PDT by pabianice
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To: pabianice

Don’t know much about Russia, but do the R. people REALLY demand an empire? A people (along with the Chinese) who were put on Earth seemingly only to suffer unimaginable horrors. Is the average Russian really interested in forcing millions of strangers to salute the R. flag? If I lived like a Russian, I can’t think of ANYTHING less interesting than forcing say, Canada, to become part of my empire.


2 posted on 08/15/2008 7:26:09 AM PDT by Mr. Pumblechook
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To: pabianice

Time is really movin on :-)


3 posted on 08/15/2008 7:27:11 AM PDT by kcm.org (Conservatives bashing Sen. McCain has Ronald Reagan spinning in his grave!!!)
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To: pabianice

I think India could be a strategic partner with the US. Strange that India buys from Russia rather than us. Part of that is probably due to Pakistan. If Pakistan turns anti-US, we should reach out to India big time.


4 posted on 08/15/2008 7:28:43 AM PDT by Arthur Wildfire! March ("The internet needs a gatekeeper," The Cackling Comeback Witch aka Hillary Rod-ham [Clinton])
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To: pabianice

great headline: “The Empire Struggles Back” =]


5 posted on 08/15/2008 7:29:57 AM PDT by Arthur Wildfire! March ("The internet needs a gatekeeper," The Cackling Comeback Witch aka Hillary Rod-ham [Clinton])
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To: pabianice
"Apparently you could join the CIS, but not leave it."

Hmmmm---somehow that idea seems strangely familiar. Wasn't there a fellow named "Lincoln" that had similar notions???

6 posted on 08/15/2008 7:41:00 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel-NRA)
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To: pabianice

Importantly, the Georgian invasion has been a major disaster for Russia in a bunch of ways. Not only has it cleared the haze of its former satellites as to whether they should be friendly to the US—now they are desperate to be our friends again; but it has also reminded much of the world how much they truly and deeply hate Russia.

While American leftists whine that the world doesn’t love America, in truth the world bitterly hates Russia with a burning hatred. They want Russia to be in flames and Russians to die horribly.

This might actually result in a huge multinational organization that could dwarf NATO, of all the nations that hate Russia. A mutual defense treaty to create a multinational army that can beat Russia anywhere they try it on.

All the wheeling and dealing that Russia did in the post communist era, that was based in trusting the Russians, is dead. Russian “guarantees” are useless. Anyone who is reliant on Russia for anything is a slave, so make other plans.

The invasion has also been a military disaster for Russia. We quickly learned that the Russians foolishly are marketing surface to air, anti-aircraft missiles that their own planes cannot defend against!

This was a suicidal idea. Meaning that the air defenses of much of the world have been doubled. It also means that the market for their military aircraft has just been slashed.

Even worse, right now, nations are clamoring to rebuild the Georgian defenses. Unless Russia completely conquers Georgia, in short order Georgia will become impervious to Russia. At best, even if Russia leaves, they will have to leave a large army on that border to stand off against the Georgians.

The Ukraine is also going to be fortifying its defenses as fast as it can, as will several other nations in the region. Even the Swedes are rethinking their foolish decision to disband their military.

And the best advice that President Bush has been given recently is to tell the Russians that if they don’t behave themselves, and quickly, that he should give them a swift kick in the Rubles.


7 posted on 08/15/2008 7:48:52 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: pabianice
Before that, Russia cut off energy supplies to Ukraine to show who was really in charge.

Why doesn't Ukraine cut off food supplies?

8 posted on 08/15/2008 7:51:09 AM PDT by Defiant (Democrats complained that the war was for oil. Now they make war ON oil.)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
Georgia, with some deniable help from the US in the form of Stingers and AT-4's at least, should cut off the Russians from their supplies and systematically crush them.

Russia should have something to lose in this game.

9 posted on 08/15/2008 7:54:32 AM PDT by TChris (Vote John McCain: Democrat Lite -- 3% less liberal than a regular Democrat!)
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To: pabianice

Russians love the taste of the whip. They fear freedom brings chaos, and crave oppressive order, whether brought by tsar or dictator.


10 posted on 08/15/2008 7:57:11 AM PDT by henkster (Politics is the art of telling a bigger and more believable lie more often than your opponent)
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To: pabianice

Somebody call?


11 posted on 08/15/2008 8:03:15 AM PDT by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
When did the Swedes decide to disband their military?
I'd double check that one
12 posted on 08/15/2008 10:37:33 AM PDT by weegie
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To: weegie

http://www.thelocal.se/13674/20080813/


13 posted on 08/15/2008 11:19:37 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: weegie
Denmark Surrenders

Europe Surrenders

Holland recently announced it is getting out of the Maritime Patrol Aircraft business to spend more money on social programs. Meanwhile, across the English Channel, London announced significant military cuts. The London Telegraph reports that a confidential MOD White Paper announced substantial cuts in British ships, armored vehicles, and aircraft. The British MOD said the changes were being made to “better prepare Britain for combating terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.” While supporters are reported to say these changes will permit the use of a more swiftly deployable force to fight on a number of fronts at the same time while enjoying the latest technology, opponents countered that the move is budget crisis-driven "a smokescreen" to hide quite risky cuts in the military. Two major defense programs -- the Nimrod MRA4 surveillance aircraft and the Ground-based Air Defence radar system (GBAD) -- are being cut immediately, reported the Telegram. The Nimrod upgrade program alone has already cost $ 764 million toward the $ 5 billion program. Canceling the MRA4 now is expected to save $ 892 million this year and $ 3.57 billion overall, leaving England with neither a modern Royal Navy MPA aircraft nor an RAF strategic bomber. The white paper also lists other savings: buying just 55 of the 143 Eurofighters with which it will replace its F3 Tornado, Harrier, and Jaguar ground attack aircraft; scrapping England’s 60 Challenger 2 tanks, plus unnamed older tank models; and decommissioning older Royal Navy ships, not yet named.

More

14 posted on 08/15/2008 1:46:32 PM PDT by pabianice
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