Ostensibly, the Kremlin claims it is merely acting to protect the large Russian population that lives in the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Posted on 08/13/2008 9:11:53 AM PDT by SJackson
As the Russian bear plunges its claws into the heart of its much smaller neighbor Georgia, few outside the region seem to appreciate the danger posed by Moscow's latest aggression. While many might have difficulty finding Georgia on the map, that in no way detracts from the significance of the situation. Israel and the West would be making a grave error if they merely shrug and issue a few perfunctory press releases in response to this perilous development.
How this crisis plays out will have a direct impact on the ability of Israel and the US to confront an even greater menace that lies just around the corner - Iran and its stubborn drive to build nuclear weapons.
Here's why: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is testing the West's mettle. He senses weakness, and is using the conflict with Georgia, a close ally of Washington, to see to what extent the US and Europe will stand up for their friends and their own interests.
In recent years, Russia has become increasingly assertive on the international stage, frequently seeking to undermine Western policy. From North Korea's nuclear program to Kosovo's drive for independence from Serbia, Moscow has taken stances directly opposed to those of the US.
But the invasion of Georgia constitutes a serious escalation, as Russia is no longer confining its mischief to the realm of diplomacy.
THE SMALL Caucasus nation has been an outspoken friend of Washington, steadfastly supporting the war on terror and maintaining a sizable troop presence in Iraq. Just four months ago, at a summit in Bucharest, NATO agreed to invite Georgia to join the alliance. By raping Georgia in public, Putin is thumbing his nose at the entire Western alliance.
So far, the success of his little experiment has been clear. Putin pounces on his neighbor with abandon, violating Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity and indiscriminately bombing innocent civilians with little more than ineffectual expressions of outrage from Paris, London and Washington.
Ostensibly, the Kremlin claims it is merely acting to protect the large Russian population that lives in the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But it is easy to see through the smoke screen of Russian propaganda. For one thing, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili agreed over the weekend to a cease-fire and began withdrawing his country's troops from South Ossetia.
That didn't stop Putin from pressing forward with disproportionate attacks, as Russia sent armored columns deeper into Georgian territory.
Moreover, it is hard to take Russia's claims seriously, if only because of their transparent hypocrisy. When the province of Chechnya sought to break away from Russia, Moscow refused to countenance the idea and instead bombed the region into submission. But when South Ossetia and Abkhazia seek to secede from Georgia, Russia chooses to defend their right to do so, despite the glaring contradiction in Moscow's stance.
Russia is motivated by one principle alone: the pursuit of its own interests - even if that means storming an internationally recognized border and threatening to bring down the democratically elected government in Tbilisi.
This can not be allowed to stand. Russia's move into Georgia will have ramifications far beyond the Caucasus. It will send a shiver down the spines of decision-makers in countries such as Poland, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, all of whom might now think twice before deepening their romances with the West.
And if allowed to go unanswered, the attack on Georgia will strengthen Russia's resolve to further undercut key Western interests.
THAT IS where Iran comes into play. The ayatollahs are glued to their television screens, waiting to see how the West responds. After all, in recent years Moscow has stood by Iran's side in the face of mounting Western pressure. Russia has been supplying Iran with materials for its nuclear program. And the Kremlin is planning to ship advanced anti-aircraft systems to the Iranians that are aimed at making it harder for Israel or the US to take out their nuclear installations.
While Moscow has thus far voted in favor of three UN Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions on Teheran, it has only done so after it succeeded in watering them down and delaying their implementation.
But a newly emboldened Russia will prove to be even more troublesome when it comes time to confront Iran and stop its drive toward nuclear weapons.
If Putin sees that the West is a paper tiger and allows Georgia to be trampled, then he likely will not hesitate to block additional Western efforts to strip Iran of its nuclear ambitions. An atomic Iran, Putin realizes, would further expose the powerlessness of the West, as well as heighten its sense of vulnerability. Consequently, he may be tempted to defy the West yet again, on an issue even closer to its heart, in an effort to push the envelope.
The ayatollahs know this all too well, and will be encouraged to continue their mad drive for atomic power, confident in the knowledge that they have little to fear.
It is therefore essential that strong and immediate measures be taken to punish Russia for its Georgian adventure and strip it of any illusions it may have about a lack of Western resolve. These might include moving quickly to bring Georgia formally into NATO, suspending Russia's membership in the "Group of 8" leading industrialized nations and freezing talks recently launched with the European Union on a new EU-Russia agreement.
Whatever course is decided upon, Moscow must be made to pay a heavy economic, political and diplomatic price for its actions, lest it persist in causing still greater harm.
As the crow flies, the road from Tbilisi to Teheran is more than 1,100 kilometers long. But if the West now fails to act, it may soon find that the distance between the two is far less than it imagined.
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From Tbilisi to Tehran is only 547 miles.
"THAT IS where Iran comes into play. The ayatollahs are glued to their television screens, waiting to see how the West responds. After all, in recent years Moscow has stood by Iran's side in the face of mounting Western pressure. Russia has been supplying Iran with materials for its nuclear program. And the Kremlin is planning to ship advanced anti-aircraft systems to the Iranians that are aimed at making it harder for Israel or the US to take out their nuclear installations."
Any failure by Bush to fully support Georgia, including military action if necessary, will be seen by Iran as another in a series of green lights to continue their nuclear development that has been provided to them by a weak Western alliance. A very dangereous signal to send to the crazies in Iran. Very dangereous.
IIRC, the people of those two regions are actually ethnic Iranians (although Orthodox Christian and not Muslim).
In any case, it is rather odd that Iran has been so quiet about this.
Russia’s quest for a southern warm water port is the stuff of legend.
Russia is on a southward military march? I read about this in an old book but it’s probably just coincidence.
Thank you for posting this article.
” Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is testing the West’s mettle. He senses weakness, and is using the conflict with Georgia, a close ally of Washington, to see to what extent the US and Europe will stand up for their friends and their own interests.”
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I wonder if Rice is aware of this......as Iran watches.
Great graphic.
You are probably right.
However, AFAIK, the U.S. Navy is not particularly busy in Iraq and I cannot believe that the Russians are not at least a little fearful that a Carrier Group would plant itself off-shore from Georgia in the Black Sea and run air cover for the Georgian troops. How long would the Russian tank force last if we started running sorties into Georgia?
She is a Russian expert. My guess Iran has already seen all they need to see, encouraging them to believe the US won't act.
Like we are better than Russia. When Kosovo said I want to leave Serbia the US said go ahead. When thirteen southern US states want to leave the Union, the US federal government said rebellion, refuse to abandon certain installations and in the end fought a four and half year war to force the breakaway states to return back to the Union. That is why I am not keen on interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, because it opens the door for other countries (i.e Russia) to do the same. America’s priority should be trade and domestic, and military intervention and involvement if it is absolutely necessary. The concept of sovereignty was established by Europe after a long series of religious wars, where leaders of each country will not use the internal policies of other countries as the justification for war. Respecting sovereignty will reduce wars, chiseling it away will create more wars. Granted at times the internal policies of other nations may be appalling to our sensitivities, but I think if we learn to mind our own business, we will rebuild our treasury and strengthen our own society.
Certainly this does strengthen Moscow’s position logistically wrt Iran. Assuming Putin does indeed take control of all of Georgia there are practically two overland routes he could take into Iran he could go through Armenia or through Azerbaijan. Armenia has good relations with most countries with the exception of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and Russia does maintain a military base in NW Armenia for the express purpose of containing any Turkish threat. But Armenia would also like to join the EU and has been courting the West as well. Russia could go directly from Georgia through Armenia into Iran (I think although I’m not certain what the terrain is like at that tiny point where Armenia touches Iran and who knows if Armenia would willingly allow Russian transport across their country at this time).
At any rate Russia accomplishes a number of objectives by taking Georgia from geopolitical, to energy to logistical. If IIRC Russia also has some sort of mutual defense treaty with Iran.
WOW. Somebody actually sees the big picture. Very accurate article.
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