Posted on 08/02/2008 9:55:02 AM PDT by SmartInsight
God, I hope not. In more ways than one.
So the rest of the country is moving out of their states, also?...
It’s unlikely he’s correct.
The four states hit hardest by the mortgage crisis are California, Michigan, Florida, and Nevada.
The media is always behind the curve on any real event. And notice, the meaninglessness of the median sale price number. If the better homes are not put up for sale because the seller is unwilling to give it to bargain hunters, by definition the median (middle) price will go down even without anyone actually lowering a price. These kind of scare tactics, I am convinced, are part of the writer’s intention to create a lower market because they are trying to buy a home and want it lower. Self-serving is not limited to politicians.
We are seeing the sales here in AZ begin to accelerate and the few bargains dry up. Lookers are coming back and volumes in some areas are exploding, again. One realtor told us she is closing $ 2MM /mo. in homes in nice neighborhoods. Somebody rang the bell.
The DATA show that sales are increasing:
“Notably, buyers are responding to sharply lower home prices. The realtors’ group reports the state’s June home sales rose 17.5 percent from a year earlier while its median home price plunged 37.7 percent. June also marked the third consecutive month of increases in home sales from year-earlier levels in the state. “
Good news for some...but in other areas I think further slides will continue. Florida has even come close to bottom yet.
I see houses selling, folks moving in and out.. I also live in one of the less price affected counties in the state, knock on a fault line, urr, knock on wood.
With rates still well down there,, and now some properties and their asking prices,, time to get ‘er done!
Perhaps those with more knowledge can explain this chart.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html
“We are seeing the sales here in AZ begin to accelerate and the few bargains dry up.”
Interesting info — consistent with the data in this article.
By the time the MSM will have it on their front pages that the housing slump is over, it will be too late for bargains.
I think the MSM has a vested interest to keep everything “doom and gloom” until the election, hoping that will benefit the Democrats.
The NYT has an article, talking about recession — even though we had 2 quarters of POSITIVE growth, the 2nd Quarter better than the first, pointing to recovery, not recession. (The official definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage, i.e. “negative growth”.)
More Arrows Seen Pointing to a Recession
I read in Barron’s that the 4th quarter of 2007 is now thought to be negative. Can anyone confirm?
If the above is true then the downturn in R.E. in CA is over for sure, In normal times (not crazy boom times as we had) the average listing time for a home was about 6-12 weeks or 42-72 days. The answer all along was for homeowners to get realistic about the value of their home and that has begun to happen. As more and more homes sell, more and more homes will sell and the inventory reduction will surpass the new homes coming on the market. Price drives demand, lower prices = higher demand and off we go on the next housing cycle which will THIS time be different :-).
It was simply a market correction for an overpriced housing market. Even with a drop in value of over a third of the value, the houses are still a bit overpriced.
I don’t know when Fla will bottom but keep in mind they don’t ring a bell when a market hits bottom. Most times it isn’t known when that occurs until about 6 months afterwards.
I don’t understand all the detailed of the chart you linked, but basically it’s showing how many variable-rate or initial-teaser-rate mortgages will change, when. E.g. some people have a variable rate mortgage,that is fixed for the first 3 years, but after 3 years it resets to market rate at the time. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the mortgage rate will raise significantly, but it may — depending on what the interest rates are at the time. So people who take out variable rate mortgages are taking a risk of the payments going up, and at that time they may or may not be able to refinance.
That’s why most people should resist the temptation of an initial lower payment, because of the risk, and get a nice fixed 30 year mortgage, “better safe, than sorry”.
Yes, economy contracted I believe .2 on an annualized basis.
Good point
Homes are around $140.00 to $160.00 a square foot in my area. They have also reached the affordability index of income vs. rent or own ratio.
I got some interesting information from a realtor in my area of CA. They told me that the banks are pricing the foreclosures a little lower than market value and they are beginning to see multiple bids on these homes which eventually end up being bid up to market value. She said many of these foreclosures receive 10 to 15 bids and some of her clients are getting burnt out on having offers turned down because something better was offered on a house they wanted. Also, some foreclosures may be 10 to 20 grand under what someone who has maintained and upgraded their house is asking, and in the end if you have to put 20 to 40 into a poorly kept and run down foreclosure it may not be such a bargain after all.
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