Plus the Horn of Africa is geographically much more important than the interior of southern Africa. The only thing that gives me pause is what affect a Zim collapse might have on South Africa.
Zimbabwe should have collapsed a few years ago. 40% of its population has already fled. It’s killed its economy, and even whole tribes (e.g. voted for Tsvangirai) aren’t safe from rampaging mobs.
Outside medlers prop up the communist dictator Mugabe, who can still move around his militia so as to protect a small amount of property/minerals from overt looting, but the court system is broken (you can’t convict a “war veteran”) so the only “law” is at the barrel of a militiaman.
40% of the country is gone, another 30% is starving, and a majority of Zimbabwe has some incurable disease (e.g. AIDS). They’ve got hyperinflation (essentially a worthless national currency incapable of supporting local commerce) and their life expectancies have declined (for Blacks) from 57 years when Mugabe took over to 37 years today.
Zimbabwe is a rare case where a collapse of a country into anarchy would actually improve their current lot.