Why the Cyclone in Myanmar Was So Deadly

National Geographic News ^ | 5-8-2008 | AP - Michael Casey

[b4its2late]

Bush’s Fault.

[blam]

Before And After Photos Of The Delta

[Billthedrill]

Mr. Casey tactfully refrains from admitting that at least part of the problem is that the Burmese junta refuses to allow relief workers or supplies into the area. Better to blame global warming.

[Bean Counter]

When did Ray Nagin move to Burma??...

[inkling]

If you want to help, click here.

[MetalHeadConservative35]

you forgot the part that karl rove made the weather machine attack the poor in myanmar for bush so that way bush can invade unopposed

[muawiyah]

"....a wall of water as tall as 12 feet (3.7 meters) some 25 miles (40 kilometers) inland"

This was in the most populous part of the country.

The UN estimates that about 1.5 million people are without housing or cover as a consequence.

All of which is pretty bad as it is, but with that wall of water, and the distance it traveled, in the most densely populated part of the country, the death toll is probably TEN TIMES today's estimate.

Just empty houses ~ frankly, pictures on the ground look like a vast area was raked by large numbers of CAT 5 tornados ~ not just the flood.

Not that I want to start a pool here, or minimize the devastation, but there may not be many people left to aid ~ and I suspect the Burmese army is probably not in good shape either. An enterprising Thai colonel probably ought to see how far he can get before encountering resistance in the area. Bet he can make it to the Iriwaddy estuary.

[hinckley buzzard]

"How is it possible that there was such a great death toll in the 21st century, when we have imagery from satellites in real time and there are specialized meteorology centers in all the regions?"

Because, you moron, you're dealing with a goverment run by a military junta who couldn't care less about their pathetic subjects. Geez. UN, grow up.

[Eye On The Left]

Al Gore Calls Myanmar Cyclone a 'Consequence' of Global Warming

"Using tragedy to advance an agenda has been a strategy for many global warming activists, and it was just a matter of time before someone found a way to tie the recent Myanmar cyclone to global warming.

Former Vice President Al Gore in an interview on NPR’s May 6 'Fresh Air' broadcast did just that. He was interviewed by “Fresh Air” host Terry Gross about the release of his book, 'The Assault on Reason,' in paperback.

'And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated,' Gore said. 'And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming.'"

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080506160205.aspx

[ApplegateRanch]

"It's an expensive lesson, but it has been one taught repeatedly," he said. "You just wonder why governments don't get on this."

Because they can't get blood out of turnips, and can't get taxes out of mangrove swamps.

[Whispering Smith]

As we all knew, it is our fault.

[JimSEA]

When you think of the houses that these folks live in and which are normally perfectly adequate, you can understand the death toll. This is a tropical river delta. All you need for a house is a platform on posts above most of the periodic floods, a roof to keep the rain off you and some light material (woven bamboo) for the sides to give privacy. Actually, it is so hot and humid that you don't want any more. Additionally, the delta is only ten to twenty feet above sea level so a storm has little in its way as it sweeps over the rice fields.

Add to the the incredible fact that the f***** generals refused to pass any warning on to these people even though they had it a week in advance with timely critical updates. The same generals have sat on their hands with their troop in the street to preserve order.

Global Warming my a** Human perfidy and evil more likely. That and one hell of a storm.

[Thrownatbirth]

"..their plight should remind the rich world that it is doing too little to contain its greenhouse gas emissions."

I knew we'd be blamed somehow.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Some environmentalists suggested global warming may have played a role.

Last year the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that warming oceans could contribute to increasingly severe cyclones with stronger winds and heavier rains.

Except that the oceans are COOLER THIS YEAR, Nimrods!

[sam_paine]

Subject: G3) How might global warming change hurricane intensity, frequency, and rainfall ?

Contributed by Chris Landsea

In November 2006 the global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters as met at the 6^th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones of the World Meteorological Organization in San Jose, Costa Rica. They released a statement on the links between anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons. The following is a summary of their report.

1. There have been a number of recent high-impact tropical cyclone events around the globe. These include 10 landfalling tropical cyclones in Japan in 2004, five tropical cyclones affecting the Cook Islands in a five-week period in 2005, Cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, Cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, Typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and the extremely active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons - including the catastrophic socio-economic impact of Hurricane Katrina.
2. Some recent scientific articles have reported a large increase in tropical cyclone energy, numbers, and wind-speeds in some regions during the last few decades in association with warmer sea surface temperatures. Other studies report that changes in observational techniques and instrumentation are responsible for these increases.

Consensus Statements by International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones-VI (IWTC-VI) Participants :

1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.
2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.
3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.
4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.
5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.
6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.
7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.
8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.
9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.
10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.

A PDF version of the official report is available here.

---

Revised July 2, 2007

[tbw2]

That’s a lot of land that is just gone, underwater. The death toll is only going to be an estimate.

[blam]

Thailand is not without damage itself.

[SuziQ]

There also wasn't any coordinated effort on the part of the junta to move people out of low-lying areas, even though information was available about the expected time and location of landfall.

Sounds like Ray Nagin and Ma Blanco.

[SuziQ]

"And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated,' Gore said. 'And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming."

Algore, the climate whore, has spoken.