>>McCain is a poison pill.<<
Perhaps in more ways than one. Do you have tables of congressional seats that the party of the POTUS gained and lost in previous midterm elections? Looking at the economy, for one thing, looks like it’s likely that it will be worse in 2010.
In the first mid-term election, I don’t think the incumbents do too bad. That depends though. What dynamics are in play.
If Obama or Hillary were in and their policies sucked to high heavens, and they had an effective opposition that capitalized on it, they would lose seats. Those seats would be won by folks who disagreed with them, Conservatives.
If McCain was in power and there was little resistance to anything he did, I shudder to think what we would see. We could see a shift in party leadership, but that shift would likely be facilitated by the importing of a whole slew of liberal House and Senate members who agreed with McCain policy. If not we could see seats won by more liberal Democrats, either scenario a real loser for Conservatives.