Posted on 04/10/2008 10:18:54 AM PDT by stockpirate
Internal polling data, presented privately last week at the Republican National Committee’s state chair meeting and provided to Politico, shows John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals. Powered by the same appeal to Democrats and independents that fueled his primary election success, McCain is leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
The break down is even better:
He’s moved ahead of the two Democrats by consolidating support among Republicans, but also by retaining his backing among a wide swath of independents and picking up a small chunk of cross-party support.
Among independents, McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Among Democrats, he picks up 20 percent in a race against Obama and leads Barack Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Senator Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent.
More recent public polls portray a much more competitive race between McCain and either Democrat, with Obama leading in some surveys.
But Republican pollster Ed Goeas said the contrast between the standing of the Republican Party and its actual nominee was reassuring.
“You do have to look at the generic presidential ballot, which is continuing to show a Democrat lead,” said Goeas. “But the fact that McCain is running ahead of both Obama and Clinton, and in terms of net advantage, is running 16-17 poitns ahead of that deficit is a good thing.”
Providing hope to Goeas and other Republican operatives are two key elements that appear to be shaping the race: McCain’s untraditional appeal and the protracted Democratic primary.
“What is most instructive is how McCain is running 10 points ahead among Democrats, compared to what the Democrats are getting from Republicans,” Goeas said.
According to the survey, Obama would take 11 percent of Republican votes and Clinton 6 percent.
“The more intense, more nasty [their race is] the more you’re going to solidify a certain group of Democrats that will vote for McCain over whoever gets nomination on the Democratic side.”
But Democrats, while concerned about the ultimate impact of their continuing primary, say McCain’s support is soft and much about him remains unknown.
Democratic National Committee officials provided Politico with their own internal polling data, done late last month in 17 swing states, that shows far more voters volunteered knowing “just some” and “very little” about the Republican than those saying they “knew a lot” or even “a fair amount.”
“People don’t have a well-formed image about him,” said DNC chairman Howard Dean. “There is very little McCain brand.”
Moreover, Dean continued, while voters respect McCain’s war service they are concerned about his policy views.
So, note DNC aides, he draws strong numbers in their survey on matters of character but does far worse on issues.
According to DNC polling, when asked to pick among a group of phrases to characterize McCain, the most popular choice for the former POW was: “Is honest and a man of integrity.”
While I am not a McCain fan, I support him over any of the alternatives.
My problem with this is that McCain's 'Successes' were hardly resounding. As I recall, he never got over 50% of any of the Primaries and racked up his Delegate count because of pluralities in winner-take-all contests.
Most interesting. Appears to agree with exactly what I’ve been touting.
I can’t believe this is the best candidate we have on the Rep side! I agree with him on the terrorist front but nervous he will go back on tax cuts-Supreme Court Justice picks etc.He just isn’t trustworthy to me.
I agree, but there was the Huckster and Mitt spliting the votes.
As I have heard Tom Delay say, “we need to move McCain as far to the right as we can using whatever means required” or something along those lines.
I think if we continue to put the pressure on him to move to the right he will have to come home to his own roots once the left pulls out all stops to defeat him.
We will be all he has left!
Those polls are meaningless while Hussein and Hitlery tear each other apart. Wait until one of them is the nominee. You’ll see Captain Queeg drop like a rock. The GOP establishment picked a loser.
Yes, because all those independents that Obama sickened with his Wright fiasco are going to suddenly forget it when he’s the nominee.
Remainder of the article:
Page 2
By contrast, he fared the worst on: “Is in step with your priorities and puts his focus on the right issues.”
And issues, Dean said, will matter more in this election than in past presidential contests that have mostly been dominated by character or likeability.
“We’re in a really unpopular war and the economy is getting worse. And he’s indifferent to both.”
But just as Dean and the DNC make the case that McCain is undefined and thus vulnerable, Goeas contends that the Democratic frontrunner’s appeal among unaffiliated voters will fade with the scrutiny and attacks that will come.
“The independents’ view of Obama today is probably going to be different than their view of him in September,” Goeas predicted, noting that “there is a lot they don’t know about Obama.”
Reminded that Democrats will be equally focused on defining McCain, Goeas replied, “Here’s the difference: John McCain can begin that definition now.”
“Every day that goes by is a day lost by Obama to feed his definition.”
Yet even Goeas conceded that, once Obama or even Clinton secures the nomination and their own consolidation begins, McCain’s numbers will slip.
“I think there is going to be a little bit of movement back to the Democrats,” he acknowledged. “Historical trends and the political environment currently have the playing field tilted against us. With the Democratic race still going, that playing field has been evened out. Is the unevenness going to come back? It could. The extent of which depends on how long the Democratic race goes on.”
Steve Lombardo, another GOP pollster, was even more blunt.
“We believe that once the Democratic race is settled, Clinton voters will move to Obama (or vice-versa) and independents will split 2-to-1 in favor of the Democrat,” Lombardo wrote on behalf of his consulting firm in a memo he circulated this week. “This will give the Democratic nominee an immediate 10-12 point lead.”
“This is not to suggest that John McCain cannot win. We believe he still can. However, GOP strategists should be prepared for the inevitable swing to the Democrat. The question will be whether it swings back.”
Dean also predicted a similarly “big bounce.”
“I’ve always thought national numbers are complete nonsense until after September.”
But Dean acknowledged that there was a path to a McCain victory.
“I agree we’ve got to settle on a candidate on our side,” he said. “If there is a big blow up at the convention, we could lose.”
1) Polls at this date mean nothing.
2) This is little difference between McCain and the other 2 buckets of ****.
3) The Dems haven't unloaded ads against him yet, so again, polling now means NOTHING.
Enjoy the day!
I keep on telling her that she needs to feel the power of the Dark Side, but she assures me that this is a one-shot deal.
i also have issues with McCain but disagree on one point i think he would be far better at SCOTUS picks. He indicated another Roberts which would be just fine with me. I also must say he is infinitely better with gun rights than the other two bozos
Tax cuts he has a tendency to flip flop on
although i have issues with the man i enthusiastically back him in this election
Yup. The Middle, Independents and RINOs do not have good records for activism, donating, campaigning, volunteering, etc.
As I’ve said many times, he’s going to have to come to the conservative base to win. His friends in the Media are abandoning him. After the Dem nomination, the Media/Dems will go after him full force.
“Hey, John: Just admit you’re wrong on Climate Change and McCain Feingold. I’ll send you a few bucks and put a sign in my yard.”
btt
Oh Wow, we have offered a liberal lite to fight the full blown lib.
What a win. Am I supposed to be happy? We would be better off sticking with principle, if we did, we would still probably win and change a few liberals to conservative principles because the alternative is Obama and Hillary.
That said, it is early yet, don’t get too excited until the Dums(Dems) have chosen their liberal.
The only thing that the Dems need to know is how many votes to steal. It averages around 10% per presidential election. I predict 15% based upon the motivation of the far left crowd.
How, crunch your poll numbers. Barack Hussien Osama the last president of the USA.
Excellent news.
Trouble is McCain isn’t running against Obama and Clinton, and all polls-based predictions before the general are essentially meaningless. Given that a doofus like Kerry can come damn close to winning, shows the dems can be quite formidable in general elections and right now they are out in droves. There’s a very good chance that the primary process will not destroy the dem party, and that they will enter the general united. All the while McCain is squandering his base.
If you haven’t heard McCain has been on with Hannity several times of late and is moving slowly to the right.
I think he will continue this movement.
As Tom Delay said we must push him as far right as we can.
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