[ccmay]

That's ignoring the Bradly/Dinkins/Wilder effect. Many white liberals don't want to be perceived as racist, so much so that they will tell a pollster they are voting for the black candidate, even in an exit poll after they have voted. But in the privacy of the booth, they vote for the white man.

McCain will beat either Hillary or Obama by ten or twelve percentage points and a wide margin in the Electoral College.

[rbmillerjr]

“McCain will beat either Hillary or Obama by ten or twelve percentage points and a wide margin in the Electoral College.”

Now that is a prediction from deep inside the echo chamber.
Every intangible factor in this election points to a huge Dem win: Change/Bush/GOP fatigue, unpopular war, media hungering for a Dem, Dem base actication at all time high levels, GOP base hate McCain...McCain a weak candidate at best.

What factors do you see, pointing otherwise?