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The World Has Plenty of Oil
The Wall Street Journal ^ | March 4, 2008 | Nansen G. Saleri

Posted on 03/04/2008 11:53:59 AM PST by shoptalk

Many energy analysts view the ongoing waltz of crude prices with the mystical $100 mark -- notwithstanding the dollar's anemia -- as another sign of the beginning of the end for the oil era. "[A]t the furthest out, it will be a crisis in 2008 to 2012," declares Matthew Simmons, the most vocal voice among the "neo-peak-oil" club. Tempering this pessimism only slightly is the viewpoint gaining ground among many industry leaders, who argue that daily production by 2030 of 100 million barrels will be difficult.

In fact, we are nowhere close to reaching a peak in global oil supplies.

Given a set of assumptions, forecasting the peak-oil-point - defined as the onset of global production decline - is a relatively trivial problem. Four primary factors will pinpoint its exact timing. The trivial becomes far more complex because the four factors - resources in place (how many barrels initially underground), recovery efficiency (what percentage is ultimately recoverable), rate of consumption, and state of depletion at peak (how empty is the global tank when decline kicks in) - are inherently uncertain.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News
KEYWORDS: crude; energy; oil
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Nansen G. Saleri, president and CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact in Houston, was formerly head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco.
1 posted on 03/04/2008 11:54:01 AM PST by shoptalk
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: F15Eagle

Well, that was before we hit peak oil again ten years later.


3 posted on 03/04/2008 11:57:34 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: shoptalk

Hard to believe.


4 posted on 03/04/2008 12:00:08 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: shoptalk

Price of oil is going up, in larhge part, because of weak dollar.


5 posted on 03/04/2008 12:02:25 PM PST by JeeperFreeper
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To: shoptalk
He is correct in that we usually extract at most 30% of the available oil in any given production well and that with new technologies we can work over the well to extract even great amounts.

However, the cost of oil will continue to increase, $100.00 oil, $125.00 oil and within in 10 years $200.00 oil!

Oil will never run out but we will reach a point where it is not economically feasible to use oil to fuel the world.

What then, will you be willing to pay $50.00 for a gallon of gas?

6 posted on 03/04/2008 12:06:52 PM PST by trumandogz ("He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and it worries me." Sen Cochran on McCain)
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To: shoptalk

There is only TWO reasons oil prices are as high as they are:

Our own governments taxation and regulations.


7 posted on 03/04/2008 12:07:51 PM PST by edcoil (Go Great in 08 ... Slide into 09)
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To: shoptalk
I read an interesting article about oil being produced in the north sea by the thermal vents. It seems that the oil produced by biological methods had carbon14 isotope and the oil by chemical composition has carbon 13 isotope. It is a chemical process run by heat and carbon not dinosaurs.
8 posted on 03/04/2008 12:10:38 PM PST by mountainlyons (confused conservative)
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To: trumandogz
will you be willing to pay $50.00 for a gallon of gas?

Perhaps for my motorcycle, but not for an SUV that gets 10-15 mpg.

9 posted on 03/04/2008 12:14:20 PM PST by 1Old Pro
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To: mountainlyons

I am keeping my truck after all. I was just about to sell it to the first person for $50 because it was too expensive to fill the tank.........


10 posted on 03/04/2008 12:14:57 PM PST by HD1200
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To: edcoil

And all the speculators in the market.


11 posted on 03/04/2008 12:17:09 PM PST by HappyinAZ
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To: trumandogz

you write: What then, will you be willing to pay $50.00 for a gallon of gas?

Considering when I grew up gas was $.25 per gallon and is now $3.00 per gallon, 12 times as much, maybe $50 per gallon in another 50 years isn’t all that bad.


12 posted on 03/04/2008 12:17:58 PM PST by HD1200
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To: 1Old Pro

Considering when I grew up gas was $.25 per gallon and is now $3.00 per gallon, 12 times as much, maybe $50 per gallon in another 50 years isn’t all that bad.


13 posted on 03/04/2008 12:18:39 PM PST by HD1200
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To: shoptalk

I agree with the title, but we really don’t know how much oil we have since we keep finding more every year.


14 posted on 03/04/2008 12:19:08 PM PST by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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To: edcoil
"There is only TWO reasons oil prices are as high as they are:

Our own governments taxation and regulations.

And the enviros making it difficult to impossible to develop new domestic sources.

15 posted on 03/04/2008 12:19:10 PM PST by Truth29
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To: edcoil
There is only TWO reasons oil prices are as high as they are:

Our own governments taxation and regulations.

Friends, we have a winner!

16 posted on 03/04/2008 12:20:02 PM PST by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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To: 1Old Pro
60 years ago people used charcoal for fuel. There are a few now that use it and when fuel goes up the numbers will increase. Look up biofuel, wood gas generator, alternative fuels and they look better than $5.00 gas. I got 200 gallons of french fry oil for my bulldozer this summer.
17 posted on 03/04/2008 12:20:20 PM PST by mountainlyons (confused conservative)
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To: 1Old Pro
The point is that we still have more oil in existing wells in the US than was ever extracted. However, buying oil from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia is still cheaper than going into existing wells and extracting all of the oil.

And yes, at some point in many of our lifetimes we will see gasoline at $25.00 or $50.00 a gallon.

At that point, filling up that 12 MPG SUV with the 50 gallon tank will be very expensive.

18 posted on 03/04/2008 12:20:45 PM PST by trumandogz ("He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and it worries me." Sen Cochran on McCain)
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To: mountainlyons

Yes, abiotic oil, also called “inorganic oil,” the theory that oil is not from dead dinosaurs but from chemical reactions in the Earth’s mantle.


19 posted on 03/04/2008 12:22:13 PM PST by shoptalk
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To: shoptalk

And we can create more via coal, algea, and maybe even recycling landfill plastics.


20 posted on 03/04/2008 12:24:42 PM PST by tbw2 ("Humanity's Edge" - conservative Sci-fi - on amazon.com)
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