Posted on 03/02/2008 3:43:15 PM PST by reagandissiple
n New Jersey, Hillary Clinton holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain in an early look at the race for the Garden States 15 Electoral College votes. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state found Clinton earning 50% of the vote while McCain attracts 39%. Clinton leads by twenty-one points among women but trails by two among men.
However, if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, the race in New Jersey will begin as a toss-up. The Rasmussen Reports election poll finds McCain with 45% support and Obama with 43%. McCain leads by twelve among men while Obama has a five point edge among women. This is one of the few states where Clinton outperforms Obama in general election match-ups against McCain (Florida is another).
McCain does well in New Jersey by attracting solid support from GOP voters and also picking up the votes from 25% of Democrats. This could be an example of what Michael Barone had in mind when he said we will have to throw away the old Red-State, Blue-State electoral maps for Election 2008. Four years ago, John Kerry won New Jersey by seven percentage points. In Election 2000, Al Gore carried the state handily and defeated George W. Bush 56% to 40%.
I have news for you. In 2004, twice as many Democrats voted in the primaries compared to Republicans. Who's the president now? let's just say it's not John Kerry.
In 1988 again 22 million Democrats voted in the primaries compared to 13 million Republicans. Let's just say Dukakis did not become president.
There is no bigger nonsense than to imply that primary turnout equals General election success.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=FRC2008011701
Read reply 42.
Such as Ronald Reagan... Sarcasm aside, actually New Jersey usually always voted GOP - it didn't switch over until 1992.
Here's a good resource to look at electoral maps from elections past: http://www.presidentelect.org/e1988.html
http://www.presidentelect.org/e1988.html
You can find a lot more maps there - historically NJ usually has gone GOP - didn’t lean Dem until the 1992 election forward - so it does have some underlying GOP history to it that could maybe pop up again.
Comparing McCain to Reagan is akin to comparing a diamond to the fecal material of a canine.
He didn’t compare McCain to Reagan - he was responding to the comment that no real Republican could ever carry New Jersey.
“he was responding to the comment that no real Republican could ever carry New Jersey.”
“Could ever” and “have in the past” are vastly different things. Kind of like “Conservative” and “Republican.”
Once upon a time they almost mean’t the same thing.
Obama is cooked.
Its over.
Any theories as to why NJ turned that blue that fast?
I see we disagree, thanks.
“If NJ is a toss up for Obama and McCain, Obama hasnt a chance in the rest of the country. NJ, CA, NY, MA and CT are automatics for the dems and if any of them are on the bubble,it suggests the others might be in play as well. If so McCain wins, IMHO”
Correct. Very encouraging. But other polls are not so ... so it may take time to shake it all down.
Yep, McCain will lose. He is pathetic and wobbly and talks to himself as if hearing voices in his head. Not in my wildest dreams would I have ever imagined we would elect a joke like him. Nov. will be like a Dem. primary unless McCain is stopped.
No one wants to talk about this because it gets too close to the race issue. It will be an issue, however. The dems may be slitting their throats by nominating Obama. A lot of those old folks simply won't vote for a black man. Right or wrong, them's the facts. I was even a little sceptical about their voting for Hillary. That looks like a moot point now (although I won't count her out until Obama gives his acceptance speech in Denver--I don't care what the delegate count is!)
The old "Reagan Democrats" were always largely Catholic ethnics. They are almost always the so-called "swing vote."
BTW, have you seen this thread? It discusses this video about Obama. It has to be seen to be believed. It should leave anyone who sees it disquieted. How did we come to this where such a character as Obama could receive such mob adoration? Can you imagine your retired Catholic ethic voting for Obama after watching it?
No...although its swing to the Dems wasn’t nearly as dramatic as Vermont’s has been.
Point well taken, but you were “disagreeing” with a comparison that wasn’t being made.
Lets add abortion, guns , socialized medicine, military, capitalism, taxes, govt spending,
McCain will be the next Prez. Not Obama. Mark my words.
Heard on the radio that McCain had another senior moment when he started to announce that he was a "proud liberal" and then quickly caught himself.
Any truth to the report that McCain is meeting with Lieberman and other liberals this weekend, perhaps to discuss a Dem. VP?
Did you ever think you’d see good news about defeating our Dem enemies being attacked by so called Repub. Irrational .
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