On the other hand, maybe not.
Posted on 03/01/2008 3:04:41 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
John McCain could officially wrap up the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, and he'll celebrate in Atlanta on Thursday.
As the GOP establishment in Georgia begins to align behind the presumptive nominee, trouble still lingers among some conservative voters who doubt McCain's bona fides.
Those skeptical voters ultimately could determine McCain's fate. Do they stay home? Do they vote Democrat instead?
Tom Nesbitt is not sure what he's going to do. A retired postal worker from Turner County, the 66-year-old Republican voter said he's "disgusted" with his party in general and McCain in particular.
"I have not yet decided whether I will, at the last moment, vote for McCain, sit this one out or, out of complete disgust for the Republican Party's lack of consideration, vote for another candidate," Nesbitt said.
McCain, an Arizona senator, is expected to pass the delegate threshold to secure the nomination after Tuesday's primaries in Ohio and Texas. Although former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee remains in the race, McCain has a lock on the top slot on the ticket.
Huckabee won Georgia's Feb. 5 primary, in part because of his strength among evangelical voters, many of whom look at McCain with dismay.
Still, some say conservatives' ire toward McCain has been exaggerated and that he has been unfairly painted as a moderate or liberal by the media or by those who simply don't like him.
In Georgia, at least, it seems unlikely that apathy among conservatives toward McCain could trigger a Democratic victory. Georgia last went for a Democrat for president in 1992 and has been trending Republican ever since.
Besides history, McCain has other reasons for optimism in Georgia.
First is Thursday's $1,000-a-plate reception at the Westin Buckhead with host Gov. Sonny Perdue, who did not endorse a candidate in the primary. Joining Perdue on the host committee are nearly every top elected Republican in the state, including Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who also did not endorse in the primary, and House Speaker Glenn Richardson (R-Hiram), who backed McCain after first choice Rudy Giuilani dropped out.
McCain also has the support of Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss. The state's two Republican U.S. senators endorsed their Senate colleague late in the primary campaign, while most U.S. House members went for Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Chambliss is on the ballot in November, too, and it will benefit him to have a strong presidential candidate above him, so Chambliss will be expected to work to bring conservatives back into the GOP fold.
Alec Poitevint, who led McCain's Georgia campaign, said there's no question the GOP will unite behind McCain.
"Absolutely," Poitevint said, "he's a proven leader in a difficult time. And he's the right man to be president now, and I think our people in Georgia understand that."
The primary season is over, he said, and Republicans typically put aside their differences for the good of the party in November.
Shawn Davis, who led Huckabee's Georgia campaign, agrees.
Huckabee will eventually give way, Davis said, and the Arkansan's supporters will back the nominee.
"We believe to win in November it's imperative to have a conservative on the ticket," Davis said. "Once Governor Huckabee releases his 51 delegates to McCain, presumably after his last stand in Texas (on Tuesday), you will see all Georgia Republicans unite strongly behind John McCain."
Some conservatives' anger toward McCain lingers.
A recent report from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life found that 78 percent of white, born-again Protestants voted for George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. But, wrote John Green, Pew's senior fellow in religion and American politics, McCain "may have some trouble achieving that level of support from white evangelicals given that a majority of them preferred other candidates in the primaries."
If the race is close, a drop in support from such a key component of the Republican base could be damaging.
Exit polls taken from the Georgia primary give McCain reason for concern. He lost badly to Huckabee, and in some cases to third-place finisher Romney, among those who identified themselves as either somewhat conservative or very conservative. Among Republican voters who said they chose a candidate who shares their values, McCain got 15 percent, compared with 51 percent for Huckabee and 31 percent for Romney.
Don Neunaber, a physical therapist in Lilburn, looks at his choices in November and is conflicted.
"I haven't yet decided whether I can vote for McCain," Neunaber said. Note the use of the word "can." It's not "whether I will vote" for McCain. It's "whether I can" vote for him. That difference indicates a deeper, more personal level of frustration.
Neunaber finds the choice excruciating.
"I am faced with a real dilemma as a Republican," he said. "I am stuck between adversaries."
Such strong feelings stem from a series of frustrations and perceived betrayals. Neunaber specifically mentioned McCain's support for the failed immigration bill that many conservatives considered amnesty for illegal immigrants.
In the face of loud and angry response from many voters, McCain backed off his support for the measure. But, Neunaber said, McCain later told a television interviewer that he would sign a similar bill if elected president.
"He's playing to conservatives, trying to move to the conservative side, but he's not that much of a conservative when it comes down to it," Neunaber said.
Others criticize McCain for his sponsorship of campaign finance reform they say stifles the political power of pro-family groups. Others, such as the powerful Club for Growth, don't like his economic policies.
Helen Slater of Marietta, a secretary at Lockheed Martin Corp., voted for Romney in the Feb. 5 Georgia primary. Romney dropped out shortly after finishing third here. Slater will vote for McCain in November.
"Although he certainly is not my choice for the Republican nominee, I still feel like he is the lesser of three evils," she said, noting that the other two "evils" would be Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Jim Beck, chairman of the Georgia Christian Coalition, said more and more Republicans displeased with McCain will come to the conclusion that McCain is the best option available to them.
"You're already seeing it," Beck said. "Based on our e-mail traffic, some Huckabee people are waiting (to publicly back McCain) out of respect for him. At the end of the day, you have to pick between imperfect people."
McCain was not Beck's first choice. That becomes less important in November, he said.
"Look at the alternative," he said.
Plus, Beck said, McCain could gain independents and moderates to offset any loss of conservatives.
"McCain offers appeal to swing voters that would not have been the case with Huckabee or Romney," Beck said.
In the end, however, "I don't think McCain will turn off the base," Beck said.
Nesbitt, the Turner County Republican, would disagree.
"I am totally disgusted with them all, and have decided to call myself an independent, and will think twice before ever voting Republican again," he said.
Your speculation of Hillary joining McCain on the same ticket is absurd. It wont ever happen and you can take that to the bank
I agree. I think John Kerry has that spot sewed up.
“Getting nuked only lasts a second, but higher taxes last a lifetime!”
LOL
You have a point there.
no that is not “IT” but you are the parrot and quoting talk radio hosts almost verbatim. You do know that Reagan granted amnesty to a few million illegals, you do know that McCain wants to strengthen the borders first and he never stated that he wanted to grant a blanket amnesty to any illegals...if he did..send me the quote. As for closing gitmo..President Bush supports closing it too...as for waterboarding..I can understand why McCain is against it and do not view that as a reason to accuse him of being liberal.
I have never regretted my votes ..ever ..and I will vote for McCain as I voted for Bush 43 twice and for Reagan and
for Bush 41. That is my conscience.
no that is not “IT” but you are the parrot and quoting talk radio hosts almost verbatim. You do know that Reagan granted amnesty to a few million illegals, you do know that McCain wants to strengthen the borders first and he never stated that he wanted to grant a blanket amnesty to any illegals...if he did..send me the quote. As for closing gitmo..President Bush supports closing it too...as for waterboarding..I can understand why McCain is against it and do not view that as a reason to accuse him of being liberal.
I have never regretted my votes ..ever ..and I will vote for McCain as I voted for Bush 43 twice and for Reagan and
for Bush 41. That is my conscience.
On the other hand, maybe not.
Nope he really doesn’t care if our southern border is secure! He really cannot tolerate the use of waterboarding!
However he has shown an amazing ability to back Democrats when it is in his best interests to do so. Kinda wishy washy on the subject. Better than the rats but that isn’t saying much.
Talk is cheap...
Ollie North has also endorsed McCain. Your excellent post is in sync with North’s column.
“”Neither John McCain, nor anyone in his campaign asked me to write this column. But I cannot sit silently while my fellow conservatives do to John McCain what GOP “moderates” did to me. Today, the stakes for our country are far higher, the implications for the future far greater than who sits in one of a hundred U.S. Senate seats. Now, our nation is at war against a vicious foe. We need a president who has proven how to win it.
Over the course of the last six years I have made a dozen protracted trips to cover U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen, Guardsmen and Marines defending us against a Jihad hostile to all that we hold dear. In the dark days when Al Anbar province Iraq was the bloodiest place on the planet — John McCain was one of the few in Congress brave enough to venture into that cauldron. I know, because I saw him there.”
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,330368,00.html
Good. Ollie is one person many will listen to here.
There is no victory in defeat.
And I would rather battle McCain to bring him to the right on other issues then battle democrats who will invite the forces of evil to attack us.
Oh please, that was a very lame response.
His stand on amnesty, perks for illegal aliens, and voting against the Cornyn amendment alone should disqualify him from seeking the presidency. He is unable or unwilling to fight WOT.
He and Cindy have a huge amount of baggage - questions about his mental and physical health, adultery, pathological lying, nasty and crude behavior, Keating 5, CFR, etc. He and Cindy remind me more of Boris and Natasha than a potential POTUS and First Lady.
It is tragic that we have clowns such as McCain, Hillary, and Obama running for POTUS.
Who is running against him? Are the (L)'s fielding a candidate?
With statements like, "We believe to win in November it's imperative to have a conservative on the ticket... Once [Huckabee drops out] ... you will see all Georgia Republicans unite strongly behind John McCain." it's easy to see why the GOP still proudly marches under the Stupid Banner.
Under the circumsatances it's beginning to look like the best hope for the next four years is stiff-backed Republican oppositon to leftest moves by the POTUS, whoever that turns out to be.
God help us if it comes down to the likes of Chambliis and Isakson standing between a RINO and the Constitution.
I’m hoping Herman Cain will run against him, but I guess he would have said something by now.
My consolation is that my representative is STERLING. Phil Gingrey is a treasure, and my former rep. was Tom Price,(I got re-districted away from him) who is also excellent.
Very good analysis.
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