Posted on 03/01/2008 3:04:41 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
John McCain could officially wrap up the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, and he'll celebrate in Atlanta on Thursday.
As the GOP establishment in Georgia begins to align behind the presumptive nominee, trouble still lingers among some conservative voters who doubt McCain's bona fides.
Those skeptical voters ultimately could determine McCain's fate. Do they stay home? Do they vote Democrat instead?
Tom Nesbitt is not sure what he's going to do. A retired postal worker from Turner County, the 66-year-old Republican voter said he's "disgusted" with his party in general and McCain in particular.
"I have not yet decided whether I will, at the last moment, vote for McCain, sit this one out or, out of complete disgust for the Republican Party's lack of consideration, vote for another candidate," Nesbitt said.
McCain, an Arizona senator, is expected to pass the delegate threshold to secure the nomination after Tuesday's primaries in Ohio and Texas. Although former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee remains in the race, McCain has a lock on the top slot on the ticket.
Huckabee won Georgia's Feb. 5 primary, in part because of his strength among evangelical voters, many of whom look at McCain with dismay.
Still, some say conservatives' ire toward McCain has been exaggerated and that he has been unfairly painted as a moderate or liberal by the media or by those who simply don't like him.
In Georgia, at least, it seems unlikely that apathy among conservatives toward McCain could trigger a Democratic victory. Georgia last went for a Democrat for president in 1992 and has been trending Republican ever since.
Besides history, McCain has other reasons for optimism in Georgia.
First is Thursday's $1,000-a-plate reception at the Westin Buckhead with host Gov. Sonny Perdue, who did not endorse a candidate in the primary. Joining Perdue on the host committee are nearly every top elected Republican in the state, including Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who also did not endorse in the primary, and House Speaker Glenn Richardson (R-Hiram), who backed McCain after first choice Rudy Giuilani dropped out.
McCain also has the support of Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss. The state's two Republican U.S. senators endorsed their Senate colleague late in the primary campaign, while most U.S. House members went for Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Chambliss is on the ballot in November, too, and it will benefit him to have a strong presidential candidate above him, so Chambliss will be expected to work to bring conservatives back into the GOP fold.
Alec Poitevint, who led McCain's Georgia campaign, said there's no question the GOP will unite behind McCain.
"Absolutely," Poitevint said, "he's a proven leader in a difficult time. And he's the right man to be president now, and I think our people in Georgia understand that."
The primary season is over, he said, and Republicans typically put aside their differences for the good of the party in November.
Shawn Davis, who led Huckabee's Georgia campaign, agrees.
Huckabee will eventually give way, Davis said, and the Arkansan's supporters will back the nominee.
"We believe to win in November it's imperative to have a conservative on the ticket," Davis said. "Once Governor Huckabee releases his 51 delegates to McCain, presumably after his last stand in Texas (on Tuesday), you will see all Georgia Republicans unite strongly behind John McCain."
Some conservatives' anger toward McCain lingers.
A recent report from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life found that 78 percent of white, born-again Protestants voted for George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. But, wrote John Green, Pew's senior fellow in religion and American politics, McCain "may have some trouble achieving that level of support from white evangelicals given that a majority of them preferred other candidates in the primaries."
If the race is close, a drop in support from such a key component of the Republican base could be damaging.
Exit polls taken from the Georgia primary give McCain reason for concern. He lost badly to Huckabee, and in some cases to third-place finisher Romney, among those who identified themselves as either somewhat conservative or very conservative. Among Republican voters who said they chose a candidate who shares their values, McCain got 15 percent, compared with 51 percent for Huckabee and 31 percent for Romney.
Don Neunaber, a physical therapist in Lilburn, looks at his choices in November and is conflicted.
"I haven't yet decided whether I can vote for McCain," Neunaber said. Note the use of the word "can." It's not "whether I will vote" for McCain. It's "whether I can" vote for him. That difference indicates a deeper, more personal level of frustration.
Neunaber finds the choice excruciating.
"I am faced with a real dilemma as a Republican," he said. "I am stuck between adversaries."
Such strong feelings stem from a series of frustrations and perceived betrayals. Neunaber specifically mentioned McCain's support for the failed immigration bill that many conservatives considered amnesty for illegal immigrants.
In the face of loud and angry response from many voters, McCain backed off his support for the measure. But, Neunaber said, McCain later told a television interviewer that he would sign a similar bill if elected president.
"He's playing to conservatives, trying to move to the conservative side, but he's not that much of a conservative when it comes down to it," Neunaber said.
Others criticize McCain for his sponsorship of campaign finance reform they say stifles the political power of pro-family groups. Others, such as the powerful Club for Growth, don't like his economic policies.
Helen Slater of Marietta, a secretary at Lockheed Martin Corp., voted for Romney in the Feb. 5 Georgia primary. Romney dropped out shortly after finishing third here. Slater will vote for McCain in November.
"Although he certainly is not my choice for the Republican nominee, I still feel like he is the lesser of three evils," she said, noting that the other two "evils" would be Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Jim Beck, chairman of the Georgia Christian Coalition, said more and more Republicans displeased with McCain will come to the conclusion that McCain is the best option available to them.
"You're already seeing it," Beck said. "Based on our e-mail traffic, some Huckabee people are waiting (to publicly back McCain) out of respect for him. At the end of the day, you have to pick between imperfect people."
McCain was not Beck's first choice. That becomes less important in November, he said.
"Look at the alternative," he said.
Plus, Beck said, McCain could gain independents and moderates to offset any loss of conservatives.
"McCain offers appeal to swing voters that would not have been the case with Huckabee or Romney," Beck said.
In the end, however, "I don't think McCain will turn off the base," Beck said.
Nesbitt, the Turner County Republican, would disagree.
"I am totally disgusted with them all, and have decided to call myself an independent, and will think twice before ever voting Republican again," he said.
“And winning with a conservative hating rino will drive the Republican Party which direction?”
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Winning political parties tend to shift further toward their base.
Huckabee was defending giving in state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants in one of the debates, so I'm going to say NO.
I am with you, kellynla.
He was selected before the Virginia primary on February 5th, so I had no say in his nomination.
McCain voted YES to confirm this:
Voted YES to Ginsburg - Voted NO to confirm Bork.
Where did they get that that McLame was “strong on national defense”????
No waterboarding even if it meant we save San Diego. He wants his open borders and he wants to unleash the muslim fanatics from Guantanamo on our legal system.
The guy is joke on national security.
I hope you're wrong. I've been looking for a reason TO vote for him. So far, I haven't found it.
It's probably a useless hope, but I'm still hoping he'll pick a conservative.
Which one of the Repub candidates agreed with EVERY SINGLE ONE of your issues? Not all of us conservatives agree on the same issues. Just because Huckabee “was defending giving in state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants” you would not call him a social conservative?
If there's little difference between Dem Candidates and GOP candidates, why should I set my mind in stone about voting for the GOP candidate???
McCain is a (slightly) less liberal Democrat.
Yes, liberal and independent voters in open primaries selected McCain because the liberal media went easy on him while tearing down or ignoring all the conservatives. The RINO wing of the party also supported him once Rudy proved hopeless.
Let's see if McCain the moderate can win with moderate votes.
Open boarders, Guantanomo, waterboarding....
Strong? I disagree.
Will conservatives back McCain?
“Well voting for the a==holes damn sure isn’t going to achieve anything except more of the same.
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If you want a more conservative candidate, then get out there and work for their victory. It amazes me how so many who complain about the candidate receiving the most votes never did anything to help the candidate they preferred except post their opinions on FR.
I wish there would have been a lot more FReepers up in Iowa helping us get the conservative message out.
“If we let the national GOP get away with giving us 7/10 RINO candidates this election, we’ll get 9/10 next election.”
So you are/were a member of DU in 04?? How else would you know that statement. Today is the first time I have seen that statement and really don't know if it is true are you made it up.
As of the 29th of Feb- no way.
That's right - and if RINO McAmnesty wins, look for nothing but more ass-kissing RINOs in the future.
Yet there are "conservatives" who think we should vote for him (regardless of his history) just because he's on the Republican ticket.
He's a democRAT - Look at his history.
Let the democRATs OWN their failures, not have a RINO Republican (who does their bidding) to be their scapegoat.
I’m willing to show McCain my back as he’s shown the conservatives his. I may write in the name of a friend, pet, spouse, one of my kids, Zell Miller, the list is endless. Just no McCain...(unless Fred or Duncan is the running mate. Then there’s a slight chance he’ll get my vote.)
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