How John McCain may still lose the nomination (Huckabee's delegate math)

The Forerunner Forum (FL) ^ | February 14, 2008 | Jay Rogers

[Kurt Evans]

The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won't say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.

Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain's column will be unbound delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot...

The McCain camp thinks the "mathematically impossible" rhetorical ploy will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public, who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works...

McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him...

There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 804 delegates (and 18 of these are unbound delegates who are still able to change their mind), then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.

Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387... Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain...

McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1,191 in the remaining states.

Now here's the math ...

Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound!
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound!
North Carolina - 69 bound
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound

There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1,191 bound delegates.

Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen...

The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.

Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.

So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn't have enough bound delegates. But more likely, if he falls short of 1191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate ...

[FBD]

yup. I’d rather see Huck too.
He supports abolishing the income tax and the IRS for the Fair Tax. Enough reason for me to support him.

[puroresu]

Hunter wouldn’t bring enough to the ticket since California would be out of play. Besides, McCain pretty much has the nomination in the bag.

California's out of play no matter who the nominee is. It's out of play because the prior amnesty, combined with illegal immigration, has flooded the state with leftist foreigners. California went Republican in every presidential race from 1952 to 1988, except for the 1964 LBJ landslide. But once the effects of the Reagan era amnesty began to be felt, it's gone Democrat in every election since. That's four times in a row. One more amnesty and the state will be as heavily Democrat as Massachusetts, with the GOP down to single digits in the legislature.

[Guns are GOOD]

Just based on the initial post, let’s give Huckabee Texas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Kentucky. That is 293 of the 371 Kurt stated Huckabee needs to block McCain. Not enough. If you have a more detailed analysis of what states Huckabee will win and the delegates he will receive, I would be interested in seeing it.

[deport]

I don’t have an analysis..... The above table I posted had the states showing how they voted or which ones hadn’t voted to date. I”m not sure the Hopester will win Texas. He may win a few delegates as it’s winner take all by CD and Statewide but I don’t see a sweep.

[deport]

Also I don't see the unpledged delegates going against the popular vote in general although it isn't a majority at this time. Some states may but I think the general following will be to the national winner and how the party powers that be have determined the outcome. That isn't necessarily a good thing but it looks like what we are stuck with..... McCain

The Green Papers
2008 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions

 

Republican Convention
Presidential Nominating Process
39th Republican National Convention: Monday 1 September - Thursday 4 September 2008

Candidate	Popular Vote	Delegate Votes
		Soft Pledged	Soft Unpledged	Soft Total	Alternative Soft Total*	Hard Total
McCain, John S.	5,695,383  39.19%	848  47.08%	18   3.11%	866  36.39%	971  38.59%	219   9.20%
Romney, Mitt	4,303,899  29.62%	124   6.89%	57   9.84%	181   7.61%	199   7.91%	57   2.39%
Huckabee, Mike	2,961,868  20.38%	204  11.33%	23   3.97%	227   9.54%	230   9.14%	101   4.24%
Paul, Ron	656,871   4.52%	5   0.28%	16   2.76%	21   0.88%	21   0.83%	5   0.21%
Giuliani, Rudolph W.	561,623   3.86%
Thompson, Fred Dalton	250,727   1.73%		11   1.90%	11   0.46%	11   0.44%
Uncommitted	28,949   0.20%	40   2.22%	1   0.17%	41   1.72%	33   1.31%	18   0.76%
Hunter, Duncan	28,220   0.19%		1   0.17%	1   0.04%	1   0.04%
Keyes, Alan L.	22,221   0.15%
(others)	8,180   0.06%
Tancredo, Thomas Gerald "Tom"	8,012   0.06%
Cox, John H.	2,971   0.02%
Brownback, Samuel Dale	2,564   0.02%
(available)		580  32.20%	452  78.07%	1,032  43.36%	1,050  41.73%	1,980  83.19%
Total	14,531,488 100.00%	1,801 100.00%	579 100.00%	2,380 100.00%	2,516 100.00%	2,380 100.00%

2,380 total delegates
(before penalties: 2,516 total delegates - 560 base at-large / 1,305 re: 435 congressional districts / 168 party / 483 bonus)
 
*The Alternative Soft Total assumes that delegates not currently listed in the Soft Total and/or Hard Total will actually be seated and, thereby, eligible to vote during the Roll Call re: the Presidential Nomination at the National Convention.

[Perchant]

Aren’t the delegates “freed” after the second ballot to vote for whomever they wish?

From the GOP rule book:

Rule No.40

Nominations

b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

McCain, Romney and Huckabee are the only ones who will qualify on the first ballot. After the first ballot, I guess a majority of delegates from 5 states can draft a new candidate for consideration.

I also take it from this that McCain and other candidates can only suggest a VP preference and none of the delegates are pledged to support the choice. This would theoretically make it difficult for McCain to choose a rino.

One problem though, I was looking at the national delegates from Alabama who were elected a few days ago and it appears that Romney's delegates were split up for McCain and Huckabee to pick half and half. That's how it appeared to me. If that's how all the states choose their delegates then it will be nothing but McCain and Huckabee delegates at the convention and the Romney portion that McCain gets to pick the delegate for will vote for McCain on the first ballot, giving him plenty of delegates to win the thing outright.

Even if McCain dropped out or meets his maker prior to the convention, based on my perception of how it was done in Alabama, all of his selected national delegates would still be there and would probably draft someone like Lindsey Graham to replace him.

If FReepers organized and made it their goal to become the national delegates for the Republicans in all of the states, we could accomplish it. That is why they public isn't informed too openly about how the process works.

[DoughtyOne]

I met Mike at the first Freeper Inaugural Ball for Bush in 2000. He was playing bass for the band. He seemed like a good dude.

Following the situation in Arkansas, I realize he took over for the disgraced governor that had to step down.

I was predisposed to like Mike and support him. Then I started noticing folks from Arkansas that were not as favorable to him as I was.

They brought up points that made sense to me. At this point in time, I don’t see Mike as you do.

I appreciate you defending Mike. If you see him as you have described, you should.

I do think Mike has a certain flair that McCain will lack, and agree that he might be a better person in a campaign against the democrat nominee based on that aspect of him.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your take on some of the other candidates. I will admit, I’m not predisposed to sign on to your program with Mike, but that’s okay.

You take care. I appreciate your comments.

[DoughtyOne]

LOL. We’re on the same page.

[deport]

Alabama has some rules in their state GOP that requires the delegates be split portionally on the statewide vote. This would be the bonus and at large delegates. The CDs were winner take all or top two. I guess the top two was where there wasn't a winner by majority vote in the CD. I didn't go search their rules specifically for the meaning.

Based upon the following it appears that for a name to be placed in nomination they do need the support of a majority of the delegates from five states. Based upon [e] it appears that that is when/where the horse trading begins between candidates and delegations.

RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(a) In making the nominations for qPresident of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.

(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall declare that the candidate has been nominated.

(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.

(f) For the 2004 Republican National Convention, notwithstanding any other provision of these rules or any Rule of the House of Representatives, it shall be in the discretion of the Chair to suspend the roll call conducted to nominate the candidate for President of the United States at any time in order to conduct other Convention business under the established order of business.

[Perchant]

I see. I had the wrong impression about the Alabama apportionment. I’d still like to know if the states where Romney did win some delegates will select national delegates that have to vote for him on the first ballot since he’s already dropped out but still eligible by winning at least 5 states. I have zero idea about what happens with the delegates the other dropouts won since they won’t be eligible for nomination.

These selected delegates should be getting lots of scrutiny. If any of them can be shown to have had Democrat tendencies in the past, they are supposed to be dismissed and replaced with an alternate I do believe.

[loboinok]

BTTT

[deport]

I don’t know the details of Romney’s delegates but if I remember correctly the Michigan GOP unbound his delegates. And I think I read where some or most indicated they’d support McCain but they aren’t listed as McCains.

Louisiana had unbound delegates for both their caucus and primary since no candidate won by a majority. Many of the delegates that were selected indicated they would support McCain from what I read after their State Convention even thought Huckabee came in a close 2nd.

Some states such as Nevada where Romney won delegates haven’t had their State Convention to select the delegates. So who knows how they will choose at that point.

Another example is Montana where Romney won all 25 delegates to the National Convention. By Montana rules they are bound to vote for the the caucus winner on the first vote however, the winning candidate is allowed to release the delegates to a different candidate. I’m assuming the release occurred in the following announcement.

Romney endorsement of McCain back on Feb. 14:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/14/politics/main3831892.shtml

CBS/AP) Republican campaign dropout Mitt Romney endorsed John McCain for the party’s presidential nomination and asked his national convention delegates to swing behind the likely nominee.

[TigersEye]

I didn’t even click on it last night. Didn’t have the time or energy. No offense taken.

[TigersEye]

I think Huck is a complete shyster. But he’s not McCain.

[FBD]

"But he’s not McCain."

-BWaaHaaa! ...now there's a ringing endorsement! ;^)

[Republican Wildcat]

then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee

Why would a conservative coalition arise to nominate an even more less conservative candidate?

Ridiculous commentary.

[TigersEye]

Noseplugs will work for Huckabee. You’re going to need something in a size 12. ga. with flaming fleshettes or a rusty jihadi knife for McCain.

[FBD]

more likely; we’ll need a kevlar jacket for conservatism, to stop the knife he will inevitably stick in our back.

[apocalypto]

I would have to hold my nose to vote for Mike Huckabee. But I could never vote for John McCain. McCain is loony tunes, excessively dishonest, and determined to forced amnesty down our throats. He is a Democrat. If we vote for him, then it is like saying, we will vote for anyone.

[TigersEye]

I have so many knives in my conservative back it’s starting to look like a dart board. It’s actually starting to feel good. Somebody must think we’re a threat to their warped ideology or they wouldn’t be trying to kill us. ; )