Posted on 02/16/2008 5:32:48 AM PST by maquiladora
Tehran is bent on avenging the death of its top terror tactician Imad Mughniyeh who was struck down by a bomb planted in his car in Damascus Tuesday, Feb. 13. Even before the high-ranking Iranian military investigation team, headed by Gen. Ghassem Soleimani, chief of the IRGC’s al Qods Brigades, began a rush job the next day, Israel was singled out as the target for punishment by Iran, Hizballah and Syria.
Syria also launched a probe to identify the long arm which hit the shadowy master terrorist under the noses of its security services.
Some of the theories and rumors swirling around these probes were planted to muddy the waters by Iran, Syria, Hizballah, Israel and some Lebanese quarters.
Arab newspapers, for instance, claimed Saturday that new leads link Arab intelligence services to the crime; ex-Israeli undercover agents pointed the finger at Lebanese Christian Maronites.
An intriguing conspiracy theory emanating unexpectedly from Western sources was suggested by the veteran CNN correspondent Jim Clancy. In his view, Mughniyeh, the consummate master of deception, may still be alive. Others took the theory further and suggested his death may have been fabricated to provide Iran, Syria and Hizballah with a strong casus belli to attack Israel without further delay, and so repeat the Arabs’ Yom Kippur success 35 years ago in catching Israel unawares.
According to this line of thinking, because Iran is forging ahead with the development of a nuclear weapon which Israel has said is unacceptable, rather than wait for Israel to strike, the clerical rulers of Tehran resolved on preemptive action.
Mughniyeh’s death, real or phony, provided the motive.
DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources have gleaned some facts from the early stages of the highly secretive inquiries and separated them from the theories.
1. Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah are determined to inflict military-terror punishment on Israel whom they accuse of liquidating their key agent, Imad Mughniyeh.
Most Israeli government spokesmen see this attack coming in the form of a terrorist strike against an Israeli or Jewish target overseas, on the lines of the 1992 bombing attacks on the Israeli embassy and Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires which cost more than 100 lives. Nonetheless, the army, navy, air force and homeland defense forces are on a high state of preparedness on Israel’s northern borders.
Hizballah announced Saturday, Feb. 16, that it had placed 50,000 of its members on the ready for any eventuality (i.e. directives from Tehran). Personnel at the US embassy and other institutions in Beirut were ordered to be on their guard for attacks, keep a low profile and refrain from using their cell phones.
2. Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the order for Tehran to take charge of the inquiry to identify the hand which killed Mughniyeh, according to our Iranian sources.
No time was lost in obeying him. Wednesday, Feb. 14, hours after the assassination, a military mission was in Damascus, led by Gen. Soleimani, whose al Qods Brigades are responsible on behalf of the IRGC for Iran-sponsored terrorist operations in Iraq, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Its other members are Adm. Mohammad Fadavi, Dep. Commander of the IRGC Navy, who set up the near-clash between Iranian speedboats and US warships in the Strait of Hormuz in January; and Gen. Morteza Rezai, former chief of the IRGC intelligence branch.
3. DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add that the appointment of Soleimani, a close crony of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to lead this sensitive mission, confirms the president’s dominance in national operational decisions, in concert with the Revolutionary Guards. Their decisions are submitted to Khamenei for final endorsement.
Two people, therefore, Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, will determine the nature and scale of Iran’s retaliation for the loss of its high-value master terrorist and strategist.
4. Soleimani’s preliminary report reveals that the damage was worse than first thought. Not only was Mughniyeh killed by the bomb planted in his car but also some of his bodyguards and senior Hizballah operatives. Syria’s secret services have fallen down completely in guarding Iranian officials and officers resident or visiting their capital.
5. The national team directing Israel’s emergency actions was set up without publicity. Our sources disclose it is headed by the Mossad chief Meir Dagan and composed of prime minister Ehud Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak, chief of staff Gaby Ashkenazi, and Shin Beit director Yuval Diskin. The only hint of Dagan’s key role came with the announcement Friday, Feb. 16, that his term of office as head of the Mossad had been extended for another year until the end of 2009.
Many will take this announcement as an indirect admission of the Mossad’s responsibility for killing the Hizballah commander and a reward for its director.
The Iranian and Israeli teams, keeping their cards close to their chests, are tensely watching events, poised to seize control of any unforeseen situation before it gets out of hand. Four days after Mughniyeh’s death, a military clash appears unavoidable.
Can’t we send Pelosi over there to get this straightened out?
Am I missing something here? I thought the hottest thing during that war was backup lights for Egyptian tanks.
I swear the next news will be a nuclear device exploding in Iran, but I am sure it would be Iran doing it to claim Israel was behind it.
Iran is absolutely doing anything it can to find an excuse to destroy Israel, now to put this in comparison this could be likened to Cuba having missiles that could hit any eastern seaboard city in minutes, and everyday they advertise that we will die, be exterminated etc. Plus Russia keeps sending them updated weapons, something is going to reach a peak real soon and I don’t care who kills terrorists, dead is dead.
Actually, the Israelis were caught unaware and were against the ropes until their foes stopped offensive actions for reasons unknown. That provided time and allowed them to regroup and exploit gaps in the Egyptian lines.
...and leave her there?
The 1973 Yom Kippur War was *very* dicey for the Israelis in the opening days - if you can't read history, read "The Sum of All Fears" by Tom Clancey.
When it looked like the Arabs were about the overtake the Israelis (and believe me, the possibility was very real), the US sent a *huge* amount of war material prepositioned in Germany - material set aside to repell a USSR thrust into central Europe. Israel turned it around, thanks in no small part to the US help.
That's when it got interesting... the USSR started making threatening moves to move *troops* in both Europe *and* the middle east, then the US went on high level alert (just a shade below red). Things were very dangerous for a while.
I know this because I full well remember the base I was stationed at overseas going on alert while this was happening - its pretty scarey.
When I watched the TV pictures of the rally protesting the death of this terrorist leader, I could not help thinking, “What a target-rich opportunity!” One cruise missile, and you would have a few thousand enthusiastic terrorists off the board.
Why do the Arabs (in general — perhaps not all of them) seem to think that it is a fine thing to murder innocent civilians in a market, and randomly fire crude, unguided missiles into civilian areas, but that it is an outrage when someone brings to justice the planner and perpetrator of mass murder?
Obama wants to “talk” to these people.
At a time when intelligence gathering is an urgent requirement, it’s unfortunate that the Democrats have left us blind.
Now thats the correct way to post a Debka story. Maybe we should do the same thing politically when Dick Morris says something.
“Even before......., Israel was singled out as the target for punishment by Iran, Hizballah and Syria.”
I think Debka has the facts straight on this part.
No doubt...
I'm thinkin' that if was the world's top terrorist, I'd have didicated guards with my vehicle 24/7...Likely this guy didn't get blowed up at all, but staged an event...
He likely has what he thinks are fool proof plans to take on Israel again and needed a provocation...
Bye Iran, nice knowing ya.
I remember it well too...I wasn’t that old but I remember the pictures in the newspaper of the 82ndABN being on alert.
Personally I think the US did this one...Mughniyeh was responsible for many US deaths in the Lebanon Marine barracks bombing. Killing US diver Stedham, who was a passenger on a plane and throwing his body to the tarmac. Didn’t we have more motivation to take this guy out?
The interesting part to me is Iran’s admitting that he works for them by their actions after the killing of the terrorist. It sort of confesses that, yes, we bombed your Marines in Lebanon. That was our doing. We should have been at war with Iran along time ago, and frankly at the cost in money and lives in Iraq - we should have done the real deal - Iran.
It seems like the state of the art in car bombing is not to put the bomnb in the targets car, but in another car and explode it when he walks or drives by. At least that’s what I’m reading.
Can’t we send Pelosi over there......and leave her there?
and take condi rice without US tax dollars with them!!!
PING
I’ll bet they weren’t just water boarding people...
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